Jan 22, 202210 min
PREVIEW:
Just going to be highlighting the top picks from each game in this one. That is so you can apply the information for whichever slate you want.
Last week was a fun way to start off the playoffs! This was a lot due to Gio Bernard, and McKinnon dominating for us but really in the playoffs it is little plays like that, which will typically lead to a great week. The unfortunate side of things is that I am not sure we really have those type of solid play this week.
Still this is overall a solid slate, and there will be a path to cash.
The thing about the Playoffs is it mostly about just game stacking on the main slate, and hoping that one of those game stacks pay off. You could also go with this approach in cash. Simply game stack your favorite game. This will raise the floor, but cap your upside.
Bengals vs Titans:
Both of these teams are just sneaky good, that is sort of obvious with the 1st seed Titans, and the Bengals just winning a playoff game, but I also feel like these teams are getting slept on a decent amount. Joe Burrow looks like he could be the "face" of the league 5 years from now. He has been looking better and better each week, and he is someone that on this slate I really like.
Last week he played a great game against the Raiders but only scored 17 DK points. Prior to last week he had, had two monster games scoring over 30 DK points, and if the Bengals are going to win today they are going to need that out of Burrow again. The Titans are one of the best run Ds in the league thus I want to avoid Joe Mixon on this slate, which actually is not that hard to do. We have some decent RB plays else where.
Ja'Marr Chase, and the rest of the Bengals WRs are a little bit difficult to predict and that is because they could all easily have a big game. For me on this slate I will be stacking some of Burrow with Chase, and Boyd. As we all know Chase has the upside to just break any slate. In the last 4 weeks he has went: 25. 4, 59, 22 DK points. The one thing that is somewhat interesting is that he is averaging 8 less DK points per game in away games. Just something to note.
I really like Tyler Boyd once again as a safe cheap play. Boyd has now scored over 10 DK points in 6 straight weeks. This is due to him scoring a TD the last 4 weeks which most likely will not continue but he has seen 5 or more targets per game in that span so that should help lead to him being a safe play today.
Once again if Joe Mixon is going to struggle on this slate I simply think that will be because CJ Uzomah scores a TD like he did last week. He is a sneaky good play on today's slate as well. 6 or more targets the last 3 weeks. He is basically priced at his floor.
On the flip side Derrick Henry is back in this game, and it could be the Henry show. Really will just depend on how confident he is with his foot. When Henry went out Foreman really did an excellent job filling in for the Henry role, and the offense stayed the same so we really do not have to worry about the offense changing too much. But this will be the first time in months that his offense is at full strength with Julio, Henry, and AJ Brown all active.
I do sort of like Tannehill at his price point to hit value. If you play Tannehill then you have to play AJ Brown and Julio. I think that you could easily stack this game in general. Although I like the upside of Chase more, and the safety of Boyd you could easily go Brown and Julio and probably lock in 30 DK points. This is a game that I will stack in 6 out of my 20 builds today.
All in all I think the experience of the Titans will lead to them getting the W.
Game Stack / Showdown Build:
Green Bay vs the Niners:
Probably the one game that could be a blowout is the Niners vs the Packers. The Packers have two worries. 1) That they are coming off of a bye, for some reason Aaron Rodgers just seems to always start off slow after a bye. You look at 2 of their losses and 1 was after not playing all preseason, and the other was a trap game against the Vikings where Rodgers had not practiced for 10 days. The other worry is that they are getting a lot of their star players back, which all in all should be a great thing, but this could lead to some miscommunication on the oline, and on defense. Besides those two reasons the Packers should win this one. Basically as long as the Packers don't beat themselves they will win.
Really the only way that I see the Niners being able to compete is if George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel have massive games. Then Aiyuk would still have to be producing like he has recently. Eli Mitchell stays a TD dependent only play.
Really the only Niners I want are Kittle (for upside), then Deebo for consistency purposes, and Aiyuk for value.
On the Packers side of things we know what to expect from the RBs. If the game is close or the Packers are playing from behind we will see more of Aaron Jones. If the Packers are playing with the lead we will see AJ Dillion. As I said earlier I think that The Packers will win, and probably win by more than a score so I would suggest Dillion over Jones.
In week 3 against the Niners DaVante Adams went for 34 DK points which was his 4th highest scoring game of the season. Although it is going to be cold in Lambeau tonight I still think that Adams is going to score around 20 DK points today. If you take out Lions game where the Packers only played their starters a half Adams had scored 30+ DK point in 3 out of his last 4 games.
With MVS, and Cobb OUT Allen Lazard has really stepped up scoring 25, 19, 14, 5, and 21 DK points in those games. With Cobb back I could see Lazard not having a massive game but I still think that he is priced too cheap. That being said at $3,100 Randall Cobb is definitely too cheap. If you're looking for value on this slate this is where you look.
It really seems like Rodgers has a chip on his shoulders, so I think he is going to continue to play great, but Rodgers has sort of been able to play like the Patriots version of Tom Brady. Where he is more or less trying to score, but not score to fast on every possession. This is because the D the Packers have are actually good, leading to the Packers actually having a lead. The problem with Rodgers is that I think he is priced up a little too much. I do not see him being the highest scoring QB on the slate.
I could see the Packers not having the lead going into half, and if you want to bet against the Packers I would do it that way.
Main Slate Build / Showdown Build
Rams vs Bucs:
This game is probably the biggest toss up of the Round 2 games. But I think the outcome of this game will reset solely on how Matthew Stafford plays. We have seen good Matthew Stafford, and bad Matthew Stafford a lot lately. He can not have a multiple INT game like he had, had in 3 straight games. I think if he does not have a turnover that the Rams will win. But that does seem like somewhat of a big if. I could see the Bucs being the highest scoring D on the slate due to Stafford's turnover abilities as of late. But at $6,200 on DK Stafford could easily break the slate if he does have a good game. I see him getting to 25 DK points this week. Should not that in week 3 these teams met and the Rams won by 10, and Stafford did exactly what is noted above. He had 4 TDs, no turnovers and the Rams won.
So with that I do think that you could run out a Stafford, Kupp, and Higbee stack.
Kupp is pretty easy in the stack, he has just been a safe play this whole year. But Higbee I find interesting. He has been playing better as of late, and has been a safe play as of late. His second best game of the season was against the Bucs as well. Basically it is a safe but upside stack. (Pending how Stafford plays).
Cam Akers seems like a basic lock for me this week. Last week we thought that he could be the lead back between him and Sony. Knew it would at least be a split. Well Akers ended up getting the most touches, and was good not great. A lot of what he did came on one big play. I am still not sure they go completely away from Sony as well as he has been solid since taking over as the RB one. But Akers is definitely better, and Akers is more likely to have a big play, and thus potentially break the slate. Akers is the RB that I am going out of my way to play on this slate.
One tough thing about this slate is knowing what to do with the Bucs backfield. It is expected that Fournette will be active this week, and if he is he will be a great pick at his price point. If he is inactive we know to just play Gio Bernard. Either way Gio Bernard could be a good play to hit value as he will be the 3rd down RB, but he is priced up a little on the main slate. If Fournette is OUT lock in Gio. If Fournette is active I would view him as a high exposure play.
With the pricing it almost feels like we are being forced into playing Mike Evans. In week three in this matchup Evans had 21.6 DK points. With AB gone, and Godwin OUT, Evans has had two straight games of 26+ DK points. I think he is almost a lock to hit value at this price point. It will be tough to fade him.
On showdown slates I think you can play Gronk, on the main slate I worry a little bit about Gronk. He is priced at almost 6K. Kittle is cheaper, and we have some safe TE plays on this slate. I just feel like the best move is to fade him on the main slate.
*Note we are waiting on news for the Bucs at WR. Right now it is looking like Tyler Johnson will be a value WR play. I think on the main slate you're either playing Cobb or Tyler Johnson for value, and sort of just hoping to get lucky.
Brady I view the same as Rodgers on this slate. Most likely will hit value, just do not think they will return GPP winning upside.
SHOWDOWN BUILD:
BILLS VS CHIEFS:
In this game we have two teams that really could be the eventual SB champ. Two of the top 4 teams in the league are meeting early which is good for every other team in the playoffs but not good for these two teams. These two teams did meet earlier this year when the Bills really dominated the Chiefs winning 38 to 20. Both teams since went through little slumps on offense but are now looking pretty elite, and this game in general should be a close one, and it should be a fun one. The fact that the Chiefs have home field advantage could very well be the difference.
Last week Josh Allen scored 41 DK points against arguably the best Defense in the league. The Chiefs in most regards are a little worse than average. Going back to week 5 when these teams been Allen had 39.5 DK points. So yea it is pretty clear that Josh Allen is the preferred pay up play if you can make that work. But if he do that it leaves you capped with what you can do with the rest of your builds.
I am not too worried about Mahomes in this matchup but really the issue with him is that Allen is not priced up too much more than him. when these teams met earlier Mahomes managed 21.9 DK points. Last week he finally had a huge game, the weeks prior he had been playing great but didn't need to throw the ball all too much. Heck he is averaging only 34 passing attempts the last 4 weeks. Which could also lead to him not having a huge game.
From their the Chiefs are a little bit difficult to predict. Sure last week's McKinnon call was awesome but now this week CEH is back, and that to me makes the backfield more difficult.
CEH has looked good this year, but McKinnon looked really good, and although I expect CEH to be the lead back it would not shock me to see them ride the hot hand with McKinnon if needed. Basically it seems like a stay away but this could very well be the GPP difference maker choosing between these two.
On top of that the Chiefs have been spreading the ball a lot. It makes paying up for Kelce, and Hill more difficult, especially on this slate where everyone is a great player. My favorite Chiefs WR is actually Bryon Pringle. He is someone who the Chiefs have like the whole season, and he his basically being treated as the WR 2 in this offense. Over the last month he has had 3 games with 7 or more targets. Scoring 20+ DK points in 2 of those games. This is slate breaking upside. Granted both games were against the Steelers. Regardless I like his upside that he presents.
I do like the Bills pass catchers but I sort of am just leaning towards the approach I went with last week. You can get away with just playing Josh Allen. If you want to stack Allen with someone you could go with Dawson Knox. In week 5 against the Chiefs Knox had 23 DK points. He is a big time play maker. (Yes I am saying that because he also makes some big mistakes). He could also break this slate.
MAIN SLATE CASH BUILD: