Jan 2, 20224 min
Join the NFL DFS Chat: https://discord.gg/Z9mA2uFTWV
PREVIEW:
The last two SD slates playing a D in the Captain spot has really worked out well, and that could be the case again tonight. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins has been ruled out which means we are going to get Sean Mannion. Mannion has not looked good so far in his NFL career, and he did not get much practice in this week. I just do not see Mannion having a good game.
The last time the Packers and VIkings met it felt like a trap game for the Packers, and that ended up being the case. This week it feels like the Packers are going to blow out the Vikings, and if that holds up to be true this slate will be about figuring out which GB players are the ones scoring. Thankfully we can at least predict what the game script could be.
NEWS:
Cousins - OUT
Thielen - IR
The Vikings top players are all going to depend on how well Mannion plays, I think he is going to struggle so I do not really want to be on that many Vikings players. The Vikings however have been very straightforward with who their top players are on offense.
Justin Jefferson and Tyler Conklin have been playing over 90% of the offensive snaps. Conklin has been getting enough targets to be used at this price point if you end up on him. Justin Jefferson went for 40DK points against the Packers in week 11, and has continued to look great since then. If there were one Vikings player that I would choose to pay up for it would be Jefferson.
After Jefferson and Conklin, Cook and Osborn are going to get around 85% of the offensive snaps. Both I think are firmly in play. Cook sat out last week but will be good to go this week. The last time he missed a game this season he went for 38 DK points in the next game. If the Vikings are going to be successful tonight it is going to be because Cook had a monster game. KJ Osborn is someone that I am most likely going to have to fade on this slate even though I do like him as a player. The problem with him as a play is Sean Mannion. I would rather take a chance at getting lucky with a deep value that might get some targets in garbage time.
Dede Westbrook has played over 40% of the offensive snaps in his last 3 games, and with Adam Thielen out again that should mean that Westbrook gets those snaps again. The issue is that Westbrook has 0.8 DK points in that span.
As a result to Westbrook not being a huge option, I sort of like CJ Ham as a value that won't get you 0. Ham has been playing more snaps lately around 38% in the last 3 weeks and has scored DK points in 4 out of the last 5. At $400 if you have to I don't hate it.
There's a chance that Smith-Marsette gets run in this game as well. When Thielen and Westbrook were inactive Smith-Marsette saw 48% of the snaps. He also scored a TD. With Westbrook not really doing much I could see the vikings choosing to look else where.
Sean Mannion is priced extremely cheap on this slate for a QB. To the point where all he really needs to do is hit a TD to get to value. So with that I might make one lineup with Mannion in the captain spot. Just one though.
Vikings Build:
Packers:
The Packers are pretty simple for me you go out of your way to play DaVante Adams and Aaron Rodgers. This combo combined for just shy of 70DK points in week 11 against the Vikings. Those are the simple plays.
With the Packers the Aaron Jones or AJ Dillion situation comes down to game script like I have mentioned before. If the game is close or if they are playing from behind they will turn to Jones more as they would need more big-play upside. But the Packers want to have long sustained drives so for tonight's slate with a backup QB going for the Vikings I think this will be a game the Packers get the lead early and then drain the clock with Dillion. If I am playing Dillion then I will most likely be pairing the Packers D with them as well.
The Packers D is a play that I think we could use as the Captain as well for salary relief. In 3 out of their last 4 games they have scored 13 DK points (in all three its strange). With Mannion I think the Packers could easily get to 10+ DK points and at this price point that is too cheap.
From there I do really like MVS in this one. I know that he is a big play guy but lately he has been getting a lot of targets. He has 31 targets in his last 4 games. He also has two 20 point DK performances in that span. With MVS active it seems like Lazard will fall back to his WR2 spot. I do not mind Lazard tonight,, but it really seems like it will be one or the other tonight, and I think it will be MVS.
Josiah Deguara is a lineup filler only play.
Marcedes Lewis is another one of those sub 1K plays that should at least get you some points. He has scored points in 4 straight games and had 7 and 9.1 DK points in two of them.
Packers Build:
Packers Build 2:
Cash Build: