Feb 13, 20224 min
PREVIEW:
First I just want to thank all of you for another great NFL DFS season, and look forward to what the next season brings. Today we have what is statistically the "worst" Superbowl ever. That does not mean it is going to be a bad game by any means. We have the Bengals who really should've lost all their games up to this point but have had a truly magical run, the biggest difference is that their defense has stepped up when needed, and Joe Burrow had continued his great play from the regular season to the postseason. The biggest question I have is with an extra week for the Rams D to prepare to stop the Bengals will that help. I sort of think like all their games thus far as long as the Rams do not beat themselves they will win the game. Really all their games they have been the best team, but they let the Bucs back into the game with costly mistakes, and they kept making random mistakes against the Niners which almost cost them. With have magical of a run the Bengals have had, it sort of feels like if the Rams make those mistakes again it will cost them. But the theme this postseason has teams beating themselves, and well the Rams will win if they do not beat themselves.
RBS:
Now let's get into this slate. What I find most difficult is the RBs, especially for the Rams. Darrell Henderson is going to be active this week, with Cam Akers struggling a little bit and Sony being just good enough as of late it would not shock me to see Henderson fall back into his big-play roll. At his price point, it will be worth the risk, but for the most part, I mostly want to stay away. Joe Mixon seems mostly like a TD-dependent play today as well. He has only scored over 15 DK points in 1 game this postseason, and if you look back on the past 2 months he has only had two big games scoring 22, and 31 DK points, besides that he has had 5 games under 15 DK points. This would not be enough to win today.
WRS:
I mean we certainly have to just continue to roll with Cooper Kupp on this slate. The difference is where will the rest of the points come from? With Higbee out today I do think that will lead to more targets for both OBJ, and Van Jefferson. Last week Van Jefferson had 5 targets and had a chance at a TD. I sort of feel like there are going to be a couple of plays schemed for Van Jefferson. As for OBJ with Higgins OUT I fully expect the targets he has gotten the last two weeks to continue. He has gotten 11, and 8. Personally, I feel like the move is to roster at least two Rams WRs, and possibly all three. If you roster all three you need to have Stafford as well.
As for the Bengals WRs a lot of the value to me depends on if CJ Uzomah is active. He had a full practice on Friday which would suggest that he will be active. We saw last week that once Uzomah was out Tee Higgins got a lot more of targets across the middle. I think that would continue if Uzomah is OUT again. Going back to the Rams having an extra week to prep for the Bengals I could see a path where they just sell out to stop Ja'Marr chase. I will be fading Chase a decent amount today, but it sort of feels like he is either going to dominate or he is going to have a dud. If he has a dud then CJ Uzomah and Tee Higgins would be strong plays. I think Tyler Boyd is priced up a little too much today.
TEs:
If CJ Uzomah is active I will just be rostering him the last two playoff games he scored double-digit DK points, and it certainly seems like he could be the difference-maker on this slate at that price point. Kendall Blanton is most likely going to get the start for the Rams, but I just do not love him as a player thus far. His "big" plays have just been where he is wide open. With him being priced basically the same as Uzomah I do not see the point of using him today. If Blanton was priced cheaper he would be a great option because he is basically all that they have.
QB:
Matthew Stafford is easily one of the best plays on this slate, and I feel like we just have to go out of our way to use him. Whereas Joe Burrow is in a tough match-up, and at his price point on this slate I worry about him hitting value. Sure you could use Burrow in Bengals stacks but for the most part I think using Stafford with his WRs is the way to go.
Defense:
Touching on the Defense today, now I have mentioned that the Rams have tried to give away games, and the Bengals have certainly won their games with good defensive plays at the right time. It would not be shocking to see the Bengals D give up 28 points but also have a turnover and even a TD. Basically I would only use Bengals D in the Captain spot today at a small percentageI do think the Rams do are great lineup fillers today.
Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, OBJ, and CJ Uzomah.