NFL DFS: Week 16 Writeup

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PREVIEW:

In this writeup I will be packaging in both the Saturday games as well as the Sunday games. I will be starting with the Saturday games, and then getting more in depth with the Sunday games.

The issue that we had last week was literally having too much salary left over being forced to pay up for plays that we not in optimal spots. That was just such a random week with all the quality plays not being on the main slate, and with all the of the COVID news. This week it is much more calm, and easier as a slate. We do have a ton of elite value once again on this slate but at least on this slate we have quality pay up options as well.

SATURDAY GAMES:

Top 3 Plays:

For me on the Saturday slate it is pretty simple. You want to be able to fit in Rodgers, Adams, and JT pretty much at all costs. From there is where the difference in the week will be. If James Conner who is currently question was to sit then this slate becomes really straight forward because then we would just roll with Chase Edmonds at the RB spot. That is really going to be the difference in this slate is choosing the correct RB two.

WR Plays:

At WR after Adams it is really just fair game between Christian Kirk, Jarvis Landry, and Michael Pittman, heck with the lack of quality RB plays on this slate I would actually be fine playing all three. I think that Christian Kirk is the WR with the most upside, whereas Jarvis Landry is the one with the highest floor. Juice has averaged over 9 targets per game now with OBJ out of CLE. This is a trend that I think will continue. Kirk is someone that got targeted heavily last week, and that is a direct result of Hopkins being OUT.

Other WR Plays:

After that we can look at AJ Green, Rondale Moore, Peoples-Jones, and Allen Lazard all as solid lineup fillers / flex plays. They have all be targeted more recently, and I think that all 4 have a strong chance of hitting value.

TE Plays:

If Rondale Moore is ruled OUT then I will be locking in Zach Ertz he has seen 7, and 11 targets his last two games, and with Moore OUT that would just solidify Ertz getting those same amount of targets. On a slate where the WRs are cheaply priced we can easily fit Ertz into our builds.

If I can't fit Ertz into my build I will be going with Josiah Deguara again. He has just been a decent value where he is priced where you're really just playing him and hoping he doesn't get you 0. Personally I think that he will have a big game within the next month. That could easily happen this week against one of the worst pass Ds against opposing TEs.

Closing Thoughts: When making my builds for this slate I ended up going with Rodgers, Adams, and JT in all my builds thus far that really made it difficult to make the rest of my builds "sexy". I ended up having to get with Deguara a lot in my flex. Once again the thought is that at 2.8K we are getting points. Paying down for him allows us to fit the other studs into our builds.

For the most part this week I will be paying down at QB. But if you feel comfortable paying up at QB by all means. I love Justin Herbert this week. It is a push matchup and he has been very consistent the last 4 weeks scoring 20 + DK points each week. After that I do like Matthew Stafford. he is just a consistent fantasy producer as well.

Cam Newton - Low Exposure - $5,860: Cam Newton has hit value 3 out of 4 slates thus far, but it has not been sexy. Cam has really struggled NFL wise but fantasy wise he has been able to hit value. In his 3 games where he has hit value he has ran the ball 35 times. He has also scored a rushing TD in each game thus far with the Panthers. He is basically being used as their goal line back. So as long as the offense can get to the goal line he should be able to hit value.

Tyler Huntley - Mid Exposure - $6,000: Tyler Huntley came through for us again! It was awesome to see even as a Packers fan. Now this week it looks like Huntley is in line for another start if he does get the start I will use him some. The only issue I have with him is that we can get "alike" plays for cheaper. Huntley is great for fantasy because he run the ball a lot. In his 3 starts he has rushed the ball 26 times scoring 28 DK points just with his legs. Now do I expect 35 DK points from him again, definitely not, but I do see him scoring around18 DK points.

Justin Fields - Mid Exposure - $5,200: So far I have just been ending up on Justin Fields this week at QB, and this has all to do with his price point. I really do not get his price tag this week. Sure by NFL QB measures he has not been great but he is still producing fantasy wise. I would much rather play Justin Fields at his price doing the same thing as Cam Newton than I would playing Cam Newton at a slightly higher price. Both Cam and Fields have had good enough weeks fantasy wise 3 out of the last 4 weeks.

This week both Melvin Gordon and JaVonte Williams are Questionable. If one of them were to sit and the other was to play lock in the other.

Alexander Mattison - $6.800 - High Exposure: The way I look at Mattison is that we are basically getting Dalvin Cook at under 7K. Mattison has looked great this year, and in his two starts (against the Lions) he scored over 20 DK points. I fully expect him to get the same work load as Cook gets and thus he should get around 20 opportunities.

Josh Jacobs - $6,000 - Mid Exposure: I like Jacobs because he is a reliable play just with how much he has been used a lot lately for the Raiders. This comes a lot due to Kenyan Drakes season ending injury as a result Jacobs has seen 30 targets over the past 5 weeks. I see him getting a lot of targets again this week.

Miles Sanders / David Montgomery - $5,600 / $5,700 - High Exposure: Sanders and Montgomery are both priced extremely cheap this week for two RBs that have looked great, and have gotten a ton of work. They both get some easy matchups this week as well. Montgomery has seen over 6 targets the last 3 games scoring 54 DK points combined. The Eagles have finally found out that Sanders is their best offensive weapon, and the man is due for a fricken TD. He keeps getting vultured both by design, and simple because he did the work to get the Eagles into scoring position. DM is the safer of the two plays but I think Sanders has a little bit more upside.

Rojo - $5,100 - Low Exposure: Rojo is a better runner than Fournette so it would not shock me to see him do the same as Fournette has done on the ground, but Rojo is really bad in the passing game. It will be interesting to see what the Bucs elect to do with Rojo in passing situations, because right now they do not have a true passing down back. This might force Rojo into getting a decent amount of work in the passing game. If that is true then Rojo is an extreme discount play.

James Robinson - $5,800 - Core Play: Last week all signs were pointing towards Robinson having a great week, and he did. This week all sign are pointing towards Robinson having a big week so I will believe that he will. He gets a great matchup, saw over 20 opportunities last week, and scored over 15 DK points. I think we will get right around that this week.

Justin Jackson - $5,200 - Core Play: With Austin Ekeler OUT it should be the Justin Jackson show. Heck Ekeler has even come out and said that it is going to be the Justin Jackson show. To me Jackson has always been a shitty version of Ekeler anyways. Meaning they do all the same things well, just Jackson is a little bit softer as a runner, but Jackson has not been used much this season so he will have some fresh legs. Last week Jackson split a workload with Ekeler and scored 10+ DK points. Now he will be the lead back and he should get to around 12 DK points with ease.

Other Plays I like: Ameer Abdullah

At WR I will be looking to roster at least two of Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen, and Justin Jefferson. These three have been extremely consistent, and putting in at least two of them into your build should mean that you're locking in 40 DK points.

After that we still have a ton of WR news that we are waiting on with a lot of starters listed on the COVID 19 list. For the most part this is going to be a wait and see approach in terms of who is active.

Antonio Brown and Tyler Johnson - Core and Mid Exposure: News that we do have is that Evans, Godwin, and Perriman are all expected to sit, but AB is expected back. With that the clear cut options in this offense are going to be AB, and Tyler Johnson. Johnson is someone we used on the last SD slate where he had 7 targets. I think we can lock in those targets again. Just need more than 8.1 DK points although at his price point that won't hurt too much. I expect AB to get around 15 DK points. At his price he might be a lock. Basically if you're struggling to fit Keenan, Kupp, or Jefferson in a build roster AB.

LaQUan Treadwell - $3,500 - High Exposure: At this point it just feels like DK is trolling us with this Treadwell price point. He has been their WR#1 now for the past 4 weeks, and has hit value at this price point for 4 straight week, and we have benefitted from that for 3 straight weeks now. With Shenault now OUT Treadwells targets should get a slight boast like they did last week as he saw his most targets of the year getting 9. Treadwelll's ceiling is capped by shitty QB play but this price point makes up for that.

Braxton Berrios - $3,500 - High Exposure: Moore and Davis are OUT, and Crowder is DOUBTFUL. This should mean that Berrios is going to get a lot of targets. Last week Berrios did most of his damage getting a rushing TD. After that he only had 1 target, 1 REC and 26 receiving yards. That is after a week in which he had 10 targets. I think we will see him get peppered a ton this week however. I like him a lot at this price point.

Dameire Byrd - $3,300 - Mid Exposure: Byrd is going to make for a sneaky good stacking play that is is Marquise Goodwin sits who is currently Questions. If Goodwin plays he will be the sneaky good play. With Jakeem Grant OUT Byrd last week Byrd saw 6 targets and scored 10.2 DK points. I think we will get similar results this week.

Byron Pringle - $3,300 - Mid Exposure: Pringle will most likely see the same amount of snaps that he has been seeing which is around 65% of the WR snaps, but with Tyreek, and Kelce most likely OUT I think that he has a good chance to get around 6 targets or so. If you trust Mahome's talent as a QB you should have no problems with Pringle as a play this week.

Tight End:

For TE this week we are basically getting a free square if Travis Kelce were to sit. Blake Bell is expected back, and he has been the TE #2 in this offense, and one nice thing about this offense is that it is designed to go through the TE. I am not sure I se that changing just for this week. Blake Bell is a safe play and an upside play this week.

Mark Andrews will probably chalk at TE this week, and he probably should be. He has seen consistent targets this whole season, and now over the past 5 weeks he is averaging over 10 targets per game. He has scored over 30 DK points in two straight weeks. It is worth noting that his worst game of the year was against the Bengals who he is playing this week. Still I think he will be a strong play once again this week.

At D I am sort of ok with just going with the Panthers. Once again it is all about finding the cheapest D that is not going to go negative. With how banged up the Bucs are on offense it would be shocking to see them force the Panthers D into negative points. Panthers D has only scored negative points once this year.

If you can afford to though I would try to get up to the Falcons D. Jared Goff is going to be OUT this week that mean we will get Blough or Boyle in at QB. Neither are really that good. The Falcons should be able to get a few sacks and a turnover or two. I see them scoring around 6 DK points this week.

After that I am fine with going with either the Jets or Jags D. They are playing each other, and both suck.

Stacks:

First Look Build: