NFL DFS: Week 17 Writeup

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PREVIEW:

We have one of the biggest slates of the year with 14 games on the main slate. How I would suggest you break this down is to focus on the Early, and the Afternoon slate as your main slates this week, and treat the main slate as the cherry on top. I say this because we have a ton of great plays this week, and the more zoomed in you can get the better this week. Heck, I think that you could end up cashing easier by entering your after/early build as your main slate build.

The nice this about this slate is that compared to previous weeks we do not have as much COVID related news that is going to drastically change the dynamic of the slate.

This slate is difficult when it comes to the QBs because I do really like Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Jalen Hurts but they are all pretty much priced where they should be which to me makes it difficult to know which one to go out of your way for. This might just end up being a case where the QB is one of the last players that we put into our builds. Tyler Huntley would be the decent value play this week if Lamar Jackson where to sit as well but I would much rather want to play Jalen Hurts at $400 more. I will say that if Jimmy G were to sit then Trey Lance would be an elite value that I would find tough to pass up on. Let's dive into them all as plays.

Josh Allen - $8,000 - Mid Exposure Play: Josh Allen I like because the Buffalo offense seems to be clicking on all cylinders right now. Over the past 3 weeks Josh Allen is averaging 32 points in that time span. Those were all games in which the opponents were a little bit tougher matchups as well. This week he gets the Falcons who ranked bottom 5 in basically every category. Josh Allen should have a smooth easy 20 DK point week.

Patrick Mahomes - $7,800 - Mid Exposure: Like the Bills the Chiefs have looked much better on offense over the past 3 weeks. The thing here is that these have all been against pretty easy defenses. The other thing is that in 2 out of the 3 games the Chiefs have absolutely dominated so Mahomes ceiling was actually limited. I think that this game against the Bengals will be a bit of a shootout, and I think that Mahomes will have a good chance to get to 30 DK points. The thing with Mahomes is if you're targeting this game it somewhat makes sense just to go with Joe Burrow at a cheaper price point.

Joe Burrow - $6,900 - Mid Exposure: The QB play that we were lucky to get on last week was Joe Burrow. This was due to just a lack of quality QB plays last week, and with two of the QBs we wanted to be on getting ruled OUT it made us having to naturally end up on Burrow. Burrow ended up scoring 41 DK points which has thrusted his salary up 1K. Now he is priced where he is not a player you end up rather a player that you go out of your way for. But Burrow has been impressive this year, and his weapons are all solid. In a game where I think we are going to get a shoot out it makes sense to target Burrow.

Jalen Hurts - $6,600 - Mid Exposure: Hurts is the best of the pay up options this week simply because he is the cheapest. He also gets a great matchup this week against the Washington Football team who he just scored 29DK points against. This whole year Hurts has pretty much sucked for 3 quarters of the game and made up for it was some great 4th quarter play. With Miles Sanders OUT I think that will only help Hurts value this week leading to him rushing the ball a little bit more.

Tyler Huntley - $5,600 - Low Exposure: Assuming that Lamar Jackson sits I do like Huntley again this week, just not as much due to the matchup, but that hasn't really mattered for Huntley as he has been able to put 36 and 17 DK points against two of the more difficult defenses in the league. His rushing upside is what makes him a solid play each week he gets the start but if we are chasing cheap rushing upside I think I am just going to go with Trey Lance.

Andy Dalton - $5,200 - Low Exposure: I like Dalton at his price point as he is priced at where he should easily be able to hit value, if you're down this low and already have too much of Trey Lance or Jimmy G is active this week then Dalton would be an alright fill in play.

Trey Lance - $4,800 - High Exposure: We can certainly admit that Trey Lance has not looked that good throwing the ball. but it is what he has done with his legs that has been impressive for fantasy purposes. In the two games where he has gotten a lot of snaps he has ran the ball 16 and 7 times rushing the ball for 89, and 41 yards. If we can lock in around 5 points rushing from Lance that would be huge. We will need a TD out of him to hit value but I think that he will be able to get a TD against the Texans. Playing Lance opens up a lot on this slate, and what is nice about how much he runs the ball is that we shouldn't have to worry about stacking him with someone.

At RB once again both JT and Austin Ekeler are the easy pay up plays. We have JT who is in an easy matchup against the Raiders who have been one of the easiest matchups this who season. Then we get Austin Ekeler who appears to be in a more difficult matchup but just went for 20+ DK points against the Broncos.

*Note is James Conner were to sit this week you just have to lock in Chase Edmonds.

Ronald Jones - $6,300 - High Exposure: Playing Rojo at this price point is based primarily on two factors. 1) is that he gets the easiest matchup on the slate. 2) He get fed the ball 20 times even though he was not very effective, and he is likely to get a TD with those carries. Now do we feel comfortable paying up for Rojo at this price point after not having looked great? No we do not but I have confidence in this offense as a whole and that should lead to Rojo being a viable option this week.

Sony Michael - $5,800 - Core Play: Really strange to see Sony priced this low. I have highlighted how Sony has looked like the better back for a while now, and he has been treated as such the last 4 weeks. In this matchup with the Ravens Michael should easily be able to hit value, and possibly even score 20 DK points like he has done twice in the last 4 weeks. He has gotten at least 20 opportunities in 4 straight weeks as well so it is unlikely that he lose that work/consistency. Cam Akers could be back this week but he hasn't really played football in over a year so it would be extremely strange to see him get a lot of work.

Boston Scott - $4,900 - Mid Exposure: We saw earlier this year that when Sanders was out it was Boston Scott who was the lead back and that seemed to be the case again last week once Sanders went down. Scott ran the ball 12 times for 10.1 DK points last week while only getting around 30% of the RB snaps. If he gets that increase to around 60% of the RB snaps I see him scoring 12 DK points this week.

Dare Ogunbowale - $5,100 - Mid Exposure: Dare should be able to hit value at this price point and that is mostly because he is a good passing down RB meaning that I think he will get around 5 or so targets and be able to get a cheap easy 7 DK points that way. It will come down to just how much he is used on the ground. Last week he had 17 carries for 54 yards. He scored 15.2 DK points last week.

Jaret Patterson - $4,800 - Core Play: The worry that I have with Patterson is that he may not get the goaline work, and that could limit his upside but Patterson looked like a stud this preseason, and I think he will produce a very good game this week. So far on a limited sample size Patterson has looked really good this season. He is a solid passing down RB so I would expect him to create a nice floor this week in the passing game. Antonio Gibson had 9.9 DK points in the passing game, and 18.5 total in week 15 against the Eagles. I think we can expect something somewhat similar this week with Patterson.

At WR this week I will be paying up for Cooper Kupp and Steffon Diggs in cash. I will use Tyreek Hill, and J'Mar Chase in-game stacks. Same thing goes for Chase's teammate Tee Higgins.

Jaylen Waddle - $6,700 - High Exposure: It really sucks that Waddle had a huge game on national TV because I think that will jack up his ownership. Waddle has been getting a lot of targets really this whole season, and has been a consistent fantasy producer this whole season. I think he will be a safe 15 DK point play this week. He gets the TEs that are one of the worst in the league, add on around 10 targets and Waddle should be a safe play.

Brandin Cooks - $6,000 - Mid Exposure: The last two weeks Davis Mills had been targeting Cooks a lot Cooks saw 10, and 11 targets, heck in games where Mills has started Cooks is averaging over 8 targets per game. The matchup with the Niners is not one that scares me, and Cooks could be in for another monster game. I see him as a GPP only play.

Christian Kirk - $5,800 - Mid Exposure : Kirk is operating as the Cards WR #1 and due to this he has seen 9, and 12 targets the last two weeks scoring 11.8, and 24.3 DK points in those games. I think we will continue to see him get those targets this week making him a pretty cheap upside play. I view him and Cooks as around the same, but I do trust Kirk slightly more this week.

DJ Moore - $5,600 - Core Play: Moore's price has been dipping for while now due to his lack of upside, but Moore has one of the highest target shares in the whole league. He has average just shy of 10 targets per game this year, and with Sam Darnold returning that should actually help Moore's ceiling a little bit. I like the matchup with the Saints as well this week a matchup that Moore had 21.9 DK points against earlier this year.

Cole Beasley - $4,900 - Low Exposure: The thing that has helped the Bills offensive lately is getting the ball to the short routes when they are open, we saw that last week with Mckenzie going off, and we saw that with Beasley getting 8 and 11 targets the previous two weeks. Huge games are not out of the question for Beasley, and it seems like he is due for a big game. I would only use him in Josh Allen stacks.

Braxton Berrios - $3,700 - Core Play: With Crowder looking like he is going to sit again this week that makes Berrios firmly in play once again. The worry with him as a play is that he has scored two tds the last two weeks one on a return and one on the ground. This is something that will not continue. The thing with last week is that he had 6 targets for 5 REC, and 37 yards. That alone would be enough to hit value at this price point. I still think this is a free square at this price point.

David Sills and Pharoh Cooper - Values: Each week it seems like I always end up with one build where I need a player 3K or less and sometimes will go with a TE or rebuild. This week I think we could go with Pharoh Cooper who is going to operate as the WR#2 for the Giants with literally everyone else out. I mean Cooper is their 8th option at WR and will be the WR#2 this week that tells you all you need to know. If it isn't Cooper it will be David Sills.

Tight End:

At TE this week it is hard not to chase the Mark Andrews wave a little and I will be doing that this week a little. I mean he has averaged 33.2 DK points in the last 3 weeks. He has averaged over 10 targets per games since week 10. He is basically like paying up for a WR.

I mentioned earlier how Christian Kirk has become the default WR 1 for the Cards which is true but Zach Ertz has been getting used a lot. The last three weeks he has averaged 10 targets per game and has scored 13.4 DK points the last two weeks. The issue is the he is priced too high.

Dallas Goedert just had 23.5 DK points against the Football Team so that will be something I do not want to ignore completely but he is also priced extremely high.

Cole Kmet is my favorite TE play this week simply due to price and safety. (which is baked into his value). The only issue for Kmet this year has been lack of TD upside. He has a lot of targets and yards but his upside lacks due to his lack of TDs.

Adam Trautman is expected back this week. Prior to his injury and prior to COVID he had been the TE #1 for this team and had seen 6 targets or more for 4 straight weeks. If we are looking for a decent punt play at TE he is our guy.

After a full season of being able to find an easy D play that would not go negative we are finally forced to somewhat pay up this week.
 

The first D that I feel good about is the Texans. With Trey Lance in at QB we can expect a lot of running which should keep the clocking running which should lead to positive points for the Texans. Also Trey Lance has not looked good passing thus far so the Texans could get a pick or two.

After that I am either pay up for the Bears or the Pats but I think I am just going to with the Texans mostly.

Stacks:

First Look Build: