PGA DFS: 3M Open 2022 (Members Only)

Overview/Recap

The 3M Open is one of my favorite events of the season. It is a fun risk-reward tournament that I have been to, and experienced watching in person. This course is really set up to be a second-shot golf course, a course where golfers will be using their wedges a lot more. This is a course where as long as you're hitting the ball good enough (not even great) you should not find any trouble. The only worry we are going to have with a golfer this week is literally just playing the course in a dumb way which means going for a green when out of position. Smart golfers will find a way to score on this course. Now I say that and 2 out of the 3 winners at this event have been golfers that tend to spray the ball in Cameron Champ, and Matthew Wolff. Champ was just one of those random winners that we really have not seen much of this season. Wolff was playing great golf leading up to that event, and beat out Morikawa, and Bryson on 18 for an epic finish.

This week in DFS it is pretty easy to make a quality DFS build, and narrowing down the golfers to bet on was pretty easy this week.

The Cheat Sheet is currently listed under the "Cheat Sheet".

Updates/Notes:

Key Stats:

- Effective Scoring

- B2B

- Par 4 Scoring

- SG AP

- Wedge

One of the strangest parts about this course once again is that the Wedge stat is the one that pops the most, golfers who are able to take care of the scoring opportunities are going to be the ones that are producing birdies. This course is one that golfers can score on, but at the same time can make mistakes on that is why we are looking at B2B instead of BOB.

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2021, 2019, 2018, and 2017 course history.

H1 - 3M Open 2021

H2 - 3M Open 2019

H3 - 3M Open 2018
 H4 - NA 2017

We have only seen this course / tournament for 3 years now so we only have 3 years course history data to go off of.

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow / Green

The good part about this week is that it is a very straightforward lineup approach, it is just whether or not those golfers produce. To me whenever making a lineup comes easy I typically like to attach that slate which is what I will be doing this week.

Weather:

This week it looks like we are going to get some great weather which should mean that the scoring is going to be low this week.

*Note I will continue to attack the SD Slate with the AM tee times until the weather suggests that this is not the way to go.

BETTING:

First Round Leader

AM Tee Times

I will be targeting AM Tee Times for FRL betting until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)

Theegala

Adam Svensson

Hideki

Sungjae

Laird

McNealy

Hadwin

 Outright Bets: This week I have 4 bets I am making due to fomo, I will be betting all 10 golfers this week but the first 6 are the ones I would use if I was trying to reduce the betting card to 5% of the field.

Hadwin 18/1

McNealy 18/1

Riley 22/1

Davis 25/1

Svensson 35/1

Long 25/1

------

Tringale 18/1

Tarren 130/1

Merritt 45/1

Theegala 22/1

Round 1 Matchup Bets (3 Balls)

N/A

Placement Bets:

Top 10 Bets:

Hadwin +450

Top 20 Bets:

McNealy +100

Cam Davis +130

Steele +180

Svensson +190

Adam Long +130

Top 40 Bets:

Merritt -115

Tarren +130

Lower +130

HIGH-TIER PLAYS: ($9,000 AND UP)

To me I will be going with more of a balanced approach this week. This means that I will be targeting at least 2 players in the low 9K range which will make it hard to pay up for anyone above the 9K range. I see the golfers above 9K being more of GPP only plays. Hideki and Sungjae will certainly be worth looks in GPPs but they are not cash plays.

Tony Finau - $10,500 - High Exposure:

Finau is not a core play for me this week simply because I do not think that we have to pay up for him, although being priced at under 11K in this field is very nice. Finau has made 3 straight cuts at this event with all of them being top 30 or better finishes. Following the other 3 majors Finau finished 13th, 2nd, and 4th. Finau should both be a safe play, and a play that gives you upside this week.

Sahith Theegala - $9,800 - Mid Exposure:

Theegala missed the cut at this event in his first and only start here in 2020. That is the knock for him as a play this week. He is a top 13 stat fit, top 10 in recent form, and has made 8 straight cuts in a row. We have seen him be in contention a lot this season, and this would almost be the perfect week for him to get his first win. To me that is the appeal for him as a play this week is winning upside, and I think he gives us that. He should also be a safe play in DFS this week.

Adam Hadwin - $9,600 - High Exposure Play:

Hadwin is coming into this event off of a missed cut at the JDC. Now the missed cut came because he had a terrible opening round where he could not get anything going. In round 2 he was able to bounce back and nearly did enough to make the cut. Hadwin is typically a consistent golfer so I am willing to overlook that. Prior to that Hadwin had finished 7th, 35th, and 18th. Hadwin has also played really well at this course finishing 6th, and 4th which ranks out best in the field. The worry is that he is only the 25th best stat fit which is fine but still not elite.

Maverick McNealy - $9,300 - Core Play

McNealy is a great play this week coming in making the cut in his last 3 events. He finished 9th, 16th, and 8th in this events. Now prior to that he went through a pretty bad rough stretch after being a near lock to make the cut in his events at the start of the season, I think McNealy will close the season like he finished it, and possibly even with a victory which could come this week. McNealy is not the best stat fit as well this week, but that is because he went through that rough patch of golf.

Davis Riley - $9,000 - High Exposure:

Riley is basically the same play as Theegala to me just without a missed cut, at the course. They both have been close to winning, and I could see either one of them winning this week. Riley however is the 7th best stat fit, is in the 2nd best recent form, and thus ranks out 3rd in the field in the 925 Model. I expect him to be in contention to win on Sunday.

Other PIcks I like: Hideki, Sungjae

MID TIER PLAYS: ($8,900 - $8,000)

Cam Davis - $8,900 - Core Play

At the start of the week I did not really see Davis as a Core Play, but as the week has progressed, and looking more and more I almost see no reason as to why he should not be a core play. The last two weeks he has finished 6th, and 8th, he has made the cut in his past 6 starts as well. Over his past 8 starts he has 4 top 10 finishes. Davis also ranks out as a top 10 stat fit, and he made the cut 2 out of 3 starts at this event finishing 28th, and 12th in those made cuts. Davis is a great example of the appeal for this week in DFS as we can get an elite/safe play at 8.9K on DK.

Cameron Tringale - $8,800 - High Exposure

I have basically been waiting all year for Cameron Tringale at the 3M Open which does sound weird to say, but the man has just dominated this course, and I love the fact that he was recently in contention to win a tournament. Tringale has finished 16th, 3rd, and 42nd at this event, is a top 10 stat fit, and still ranks out top 5 in recent form. He should be a made cut this week.

Adam Long - $8,600 - Core Play

Long is another great example of why I like this week in DFS, sure this is a lower-caliber field event but at the same time we are getting relatively great plays at a cheap price point, and Long is a great example of that. Long has made 2 out of 3 cuts at this tournament including a runner-up finish in 2020. He could be a better stat fit, and that could be the worry with him as a play this week but he is in the 9th best recent form and has basically been a top 25 machine. Personally, I think that is what we can expect from Long this week is a top 25 finish.

Brendan Steele - $8,300 - Mid Exposure:

I like Steele a lot as a play this week, he has made the cut in his past 8 starts and in his past 3 starts has went 25th, 10th, and 9th. Overall, he ranks out in the 4th best recent form, and a top 10 play this week. I love ending up on him in my builds.

Nick Hardy - $8,000 - Mid Exposure:

Hardy is basically a cheaper version of Davis Riley. Hardy has finished no worse than 35th in his past 5 starts on Tour. Sure he is not the best stat fit, but I think we are getting a made cut out of him, and at this price I love that.

Other PIcks I like: Laird, Poston

LOW TIER PLAYS: ($7,900 - $7,000)

Adam Svensson - $7,600 - Core Play

Svensson is pried too cheap this week, to the point where he should be the highest-owned player this season. Svensson finished 15th at this event in his only start here. He is a top 20 stat fit, with no real weaknesses this week. He has made the cut in his past 7 starts with his last 4 being top 25 or better finishes. He ranks top 12 in the 925 model, and he is going to be tough for me to pass up on this week.

Troy Merritt - $7,400 - Mid Exposure

In Merritt I trust, but really I love the price point, and I love the upside that he "randomly" has. Merritt has made 2 out of 3 cuts at this event with a top 10 finish in 2019. He has been playing good enough golf this whole season, and has had random weeks where he has popped. I have mentioned this a decent amount but Merritt did attend a D2 school in Minnesota for year before transferring up, so he does have a little bit of "ties" that way I think he will be able to make the cut, and I think he could have one of those weeks that he pops, and I just do not want to miss out on that.

Callum Tarren - $7,000 - Low Exposure:

Tarren found himself in contention to win just 3 events ago, which for a lot of us was not surprising because he has been a golfer that could easily be in contention a lot of the weeks if he simply got rid of an explosion week. Now there is a lot of water in play, and that could very well happen this week too, but if it doesn't I expect him to be in contention.

Michael Gligic - $7,000 - Mid Exposure:

Gligic is priced down this week for a golfer that has now made 4 straight cuts, and 2 straight cuts at this event. Sure he is not an elite stat fit or even a good stat fit this week, but at this price point all we need him to do is make the cut, and I think he gives us a great chance at that.

Other Picks I like: Clark, Gotterup, NeSmith, Todd, Palmer, Hadley, Kim, Hossler, Duncan

VALUE TIER PLAYS: ($6,900 - $6,000)

Justin Lower - $6,900 - Low Exposure: Lower ranks out extremely well this week, and that is not too surprising, as he has been a golfer that has been casually catching my eye for a while, but he has not made 3 straight cuts in a row, and his last two starts were assume finishing 16th, and 8th. He is a top 20 stat fit, and specialist over ranking out as a top 20 play. He makes a lot of sense in GPPs.

Seung-Yul Noh - 6,600 - Lower Exposure: Making the cut in his past 4 starts, and ranking out 34th in the field in recent form rank you could find worse value plays to go with this week. He gives you a chance at a made cut nothing more.

Player Pool Breakdown:

Player Pool is rank in order

Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.

GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.

Cash: Mcnealey, Davis, Long, Svensson, Riley, Theegala, Steele, Merritt, Gligic, Hardy

GPP: Tarren, Poston, Hadwin, Kim, Sungjae

*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.

Lineup Process:

Pretty strong build as of Tuesday, a build that I might adjust as the week goes on, but for now I love its chances to cash.

Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \

*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.

Over Owned / Under Owned;

This week I wouldn't go too crazy about the golfers that are under-owned rather focus on the golfers that are over owned. With that I think we should start with Chris Gotterup, 25% projected ownership is simply too high especially with similar plays right around him. Sure he ranks out as a top 20 play this week, but at the same time he is coming in off of a missed cut. It would not be shocking to see him struggle this week. Personally, I am a little bit shocked to see Cameron Champ, and Grillo get that high of ownership this week. I guess people are hoping to get lucky two years in a row with Champ? To me at Svenssons price point we just can't fade regardless of ownership, but if Hardy's gets a bit higher we could end up fading him as well. Finau is soaking up so much ownership that he could be someone to fade as well.