May 9, 20237 min
This week we have the AT&T Byron Nelson, a tournament that is looking like it will be a very interesting week for fantasy golf.
Interesting because the field is solid relatively speaking but the pricing is very soft, on top of that this event has been a "Easy" scoring event which typically leads to higher variance. Meaning as a whole it is harder to predict. This is due to golfers not being penalized as much for bad shots, and golfers are able to score, it typically comes down to not playing well, just did the golf play well enough. A golfer could shoot three under par and not make the cut. That is what makes this week in some situations difficult. Another reason is that we have only seen this tournament played at this course the past two years. We have enough data to make educated decisions for the week, but not the full sample we typically would have.
Another reason this week might not be elite is that it is the week before a major, if a stud struggles they might start to use this week as a tune-up week rather than a grind-it-out week.
Still I think the lineup path this week will be similar to that as the Mexico Open. It is pretty easy to go studs and duds this week, and that is the part that I like.
* Mark Hubbard has WD from this weeks tournament.
** I am bumping Tom Kim to a Core Play.
This Weeks Video:
Key Stats:
- Effective Scoring
- Ball Striking
- SG AP, GIR
- SG Differential
- Birdie or Better %
- 200+ Scoring
This course sets up to be a second shot golf course as it puts a premium on hitting GIR as much as possible. With that we will be looking more at SG AP, and Ball Striking. Both stats that feature GIR.
With it typically being a birdie fest we will want to be looking at Birdie or Better %.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Course history will be the last two years as that is the only time that we have seen this course played on tour.
H1 - 2022
H2 - 2021
H3 - na
H4 - na
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Red
Week before a major, (probably the best major for fantasy golf) don't want to go too crazy with the bank roll this week. Overall I like the lineup process this week. The issue is trusting golfers that do not have long track record of being great plays.
Weather:
Weather looks like it could be "Fair" this week where the wind could play a small difference. It also seems like it could be a wet one as rain is in the forecast for this week.
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
Outright Bets:
Scottie (if making one bet)
Tom Kim
Matt Kuchar
Michael Kim
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most.
Takeaways:
Scottie Scheffler is the stand out play this week in simple the only thing we have to worry about from the Texan this week is his lack of elite finishes at this track. Still, If we could lock in a top 20 finish this week I would be more than happy to.
Matt Kuchar on the other hand has great course history finishing 12th, and 17th. He is actually one of the best golfers on Texas-based tracks. Kuchar has been someone this season that has been producing some high-upside finishes, and I am expecting that again from him this week. He has made 4 straight cuts in a row with all of the finishes being top 25 or better. He is coming in checking all the boxes.
I do want to point out the difference between Scottie and Kuchar in terms of made cut %. That is why I think Scottie is the golfer we are going out of our way to roster.
Takeaways:
My biggest concern with both Hideki and Hatton is that if they struggle in round 1 I could see them not caring all too much in round 2 and start to mentally get ready for the PGA Championship.
On the flip side if they even bring their B game they should be able to go off and finish top 10. Hatton does not have any course history but everything else suggests that he should have a great week this week.
Hideki on the flip side is coming in checking all the boxes, and if also cheaper than Hatton. If you think Kuchar is not the best play this week, you're looking at Hideki instead.
From there we get two very strong plays in regards to how they are priced. Michael Kim and Mark Hubbard.
Kim is coming into this event with the 6th best recent form. In events like the ones we have this week I do not mind the idea of rocking with the golfer that is coming in with the best recent form. When doing that we can see that Kim is just too cheap. Other data points suggest
that he should be a good enough play.
Mark Hubbard has made the cut twice at this event and he has been playing solid enough golf. Overall looking at how he ranks out this week it seems like he should be a strong enough play.
Takeaways:
I am loving Tom Kim this week, and I might end up on him more than this original rank that I have of him. To me he seems like a golfer that we would not have to worry about their being a major next week, he is trying to go out and play well every single week. He played this event last year really before anyone knew who he was and finished top 20. He is coming in top 10 or better in all the key metrics that we are looking at this week.
Jaeger is just looking like a quality lineup filler. If you find yourself going with more of a fair and balanced build approach he is a golfer that I have confidence in to make the cut. His projected made cut % promotes that as well.
Sean O'Hair is another golfer that I like this week, but we all know what happened the last time we trusted him, he had a terrible back nine on round 2 to miss the cut. Even with that missed cut he still ranks out top 40 in recent form rank. He made the cut at this event two years ago. Overall I like his chances to make the cut.
If we are chasing a value play the goal is just to have a majority of them make the cut, and have the top end elite plays carry us. That would be the point of going out of way to target values. The next two value meet that same idea.
Goya has been someone we have been rostering a lot. The only recent missed cut was a team event with the next player I will mention. Other than that he has been playing good enough golf. He seems like the correct play given this price. It will be hard to target Scottie and not end up on Goya.
Werbylo is just a slightly worse version of Goya, but that is why we are getting him at a cheaper cost.
Takeaways:
I view these golfers all as solid lineup fillers, but known that you're really going out of your way to play. Now KH Lee on paper is a great play, and if you like him more than I do that is fine. I'd rather pay up for the previously mentioned golfers that are around his price. If you disagree that is fine.
From there we get Hoge, Spaun, and Bramlett who if they are on their game should given us at least a top 20 finish.
Lastly we have Garnett and Baddeley who I view as more of lineup fillers. I like their chances to make the cut this week.
Takeaways:
I feel like this group is more of a solid group for betting top 40 rather than DFS, but all are quality GPP options. I might argue we could get away with playing all of these golfers in cash as well. The issue is that I do not really imagine these golfers having high-upside finishes.
Suh has been playing good enough golf, and I worry I am not on him as much as I should be as he has made the cut in his last 9 events, and overall ranks out top 12 in recent form rank. The issue with him is that he is not the best stat fit. That is where I worry about the upside that we will get out of him.
Ben Griffin has missed the cut in a lot of events recently, last week had a bad opening round, missed cut at the Zurich, played well at the RBC, and then missed the cut at the Valero. That is why I am hesitant to roster him.
Lashley seems like a great chance at a made cut. Made 3 straight cuts now, and he finished 17th at this event last year.
Chappell is finding some form, and is someone I ended up on in my main build... (not pretty but oh well).
Jimmy Walker mentioned at the RBC Heritage that he was the most confident he had been in his game in years, and that has been proven with how well he has been playing.
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week.
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Core, High Exposure, Jaeger, Goya, Werbylo, Chappell
GPP: Everyone Else
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup
To me one of the biggest risks this week is a random missed cut, by going with more of a studs and duds approach I feel like we are raising our floor. This is because I believe the 5/6 % will be lower than normal. If we can get 4 out of 6 across the cut line while having Scottie, Kuchar or Kim finish top 10 that should be all that is needed to cash this week.
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)
Over Owned / Under Owned:
Right now as it sits I am not seeing any golfers that are over or under owned.