Jan 24, 20237 min
The Farmers Insurance Open starts Wednesday Morning, so be ready for your lineups to lock early! We will be having a two-course rotation this week as well. The South Course is the main course that will be played on three times whereas the North Course is the easier of the two. So we will be prioritizing the North Couse for Showdowns.
Quick recap on last week, the top player in the 925 Model ended up winning, which meant that a lot of people were able to use him in a profitable lineup given the soft pricing that we had last week. Thus far this season the lineup process has been easy to spot, this week it feel like one of the more difficult weeks to nail down an ideal lineup approach. That to me is the toughest part that we have for this week. Let's dive into it.
This week I have chosen to include the US Open in 2021 for course history. Reports have been coming out that the South Course is set up to play more difficult than it normally does thus closer to that of the US Open. This will be "H3" this week.
925 PGA DFS UPDATES:
- 925 Mobile Cheat Sheet: As I am sure many of you are aware of the 925 Data is set up for Desktop use, but I believe I have found a solution that will not cause the price of the membership to need to be raised. I am currently doing a trial run with this so please let me know in the 925 Discord Chat if you see any issues. I will be adding in more features to this throughout the week.
Key Stats:
- Effective Scoring
- BOB%
- Par 5 Scoring
- BA
- Ball Striking
- TD
- SG AP
Total Driving and Ball Striking are stats that I factor in slightly each week, this week I have bumped the weight on them a little bit more. Other than that we will be focusing in on the normal key stats.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Farmers 2022
Farmers 2021
US Open 2021
Farmers 2020
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Red/Yellow
This week is the most difficult lineup process week that we have gotten, with the pricing being the best that it has been. I am expecting a low 6/6 number so that should help our ability to profit even with the likelihood of making builds that only get 4/6 across the cut line.
Weather:
Adjusted the weather to "Fair" in the database because of the Thursday weather. With golfers playing on a different course than they did in RD1 this could be a crucial data point and that is why I felt the need to update it. My thoughts on the weather would be to prioritize North Course RD1 if you're trying to stack. Basically, golfers will be able to go low on the North Course, and thus on the South Course they can play safe. It does seem like the winds will be worst in the middle of the day so the earliest or the latest tee time will have the best edge.
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times for FRL betting until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
Not seeing FRL odds...
Outright Bets:
Xander 11/1
Tony 11/1
Montgomery 28/1
McNealy 35/1
Detry 100/1
Morikawa 18/1
Sungjae + Willy Z
Round 1 Matchup Bets (3 Balls)
The problem with the Core Plays this week it that it will be very difficult to fit in a majority of them into your build.
Takeaways:
Jon Rahm I do not really need to touch on the guy is locked in, and the question is how to we fit him into our builds, and if we do is it worth it.
The only worry with Xander this week would be the back starting to hurt again. We have not gotten any reports saying that is going to happen. Another slightly worry is that Xander was extremely lucky with some shots last week, so the 3rd place finish is a little bit juiced up but either way he played great golf. He has great course history and beside the WD at the STOC would be coming in checking all the boxes.
Taylor Montgomery is in one of those ideal spots to either get his first win on the PGA Tour or to completely put the golf industry on full tilt with a bad week. He is just looking like such an obvious play that he simply might not be. He has finished 11th and 57th at this course in his past two starts showing that he clearly has a good feel for it. He is coming in top 5 in recent form rank having better finishes in each of his last 4 starts. He is also a top 5 Specialist in the field which would suggest that he is a great fit for this course as well.
Maverick McNealy and Thomas Detry are very strong price point plays. McNealy has basically checking all the boxes this week with only a missed cut at this course 2 years ago being a red flag. Besides that he is looking like a very strong play and a very soft price point.
Detry I see as more of a GPP only play, at the same time we just are getting quality cheap plays this week at that price point. That is why I am prioritizing Detry this way this week.
Takeaways:
Tony Finau is one of the best high upside plays we are getting this week but at the same time Finau has been very hit or miss at this Course missing two cuts and finishing top 10 the other two times. That is why I could not make him a core play.
JT this week I worry about his upside, but at this price tag he is someone that is easy to end up and should be a safe play.
Sungjae Im feels like a golfer I should have an outright bet on, and maybe by Wednesday morning I will put him in there. The reason being is that Sungjae is looking like an elite play this week at only $9,300 coming in as the 4th best play in the NineToFive Model. He has great course history making 4 straight cuts and finishing 6th last year at this event. He did has that bad missed cut at the Sony but besides that is looking like a very strong play.
JJ Spaun is a worse version of Maverick McNealy as a play. In fair and balanced lineups it is easy to end up on him.
Adam Hadwin would be an elite play if it were not for his missed cut at this event last year. I can look past that though because he has been playing great golf, and because he has a high projected cut % at a pretty cheap price tag.
Takeaways:
The mid-tier is a small step down from the High Tier, and Core Plays this week, but a huge step up from the Low Exposure, and Lower Exposure plays. The issue with them is that we have other good plays priced around them.
At Alex Smalley's price tag he should be easier to end up on.
Takeaways:
All golfers that should be closer to made cuts rather than missed cuts, and all golfers that should be strong plays. Clark I see as more of a made cut. Stallings and Rickie are more of GPP only plays. Shelton is a bit of both, and Baddeley we are just hoping for one more made cut out of him.
Takeaways:
Ryan Palmer just has good course history, and is coming in off of a made cut. That is what I am chasing. Notice that his made cut % for this tournament is very look.
Ben Griffin has been playing some good golf to the point where I would be willing to chase that.
Lower and Piercy are to value plays that give me a little bit of hope for a made cu.t
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week.
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Core plays + Sungjae, Hadwin, Morikawa, Willy Z, Smalley, Clark, JT, Baddeley (Piercy if needed)
GPP: Finau, Spaun, Rickie, Stallings, Palmer
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
The first lineup is a fair and balanced lineup that I feel good about but not great about. That is the week that we have however. The second lineup is going to be jamming in 3 "Safe" plays then trying to get lucky.
With the second build we are just focusing on trying to nail the cheaper 9K plays that give us a chance at a top 10 finish. Then we get Smalley and Detry who we would be hoping for a made cut. Piercy is my "favorite" value play this week.
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)
We can see this week that ownership is finally starting to see some peaks and valleys leading to some golfers being strong leverage plays. Collin Morikawa is a golfer that could easily win. Cam Davis is a fine play and all although I love the other players around him 5% owned is a cheap price tag.
I see no reason to really force any of the bad leverage plays into a build.
Over Owned / Under Owned: