PGA DFS: Houston Open 2022-2023 (Members Writeup)

Houston Open week, and it is drawing in a pretty solid crowd of golfers this week. Like last week it is going to be pretty easy to make a solid build, and as long as you avoid at least one random missed cut it should be a strong week.

Do have to note that for course history you should focus on 2021, and 2022 as the tournament is returning to Memorial Park which is where those two tournaments took place. I did include 3 years ago for course history as the course did play similarly

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StatHero - Set a lineup against there's - If it wins you win - Simple easy and direct.

Overview/Recap

Last week the data did really well again, which is making me realize more and more each week that I have to data set up the way I want it. The 2nd best stat fit int he field won. Tony Finau was an elite play, and no one would deny that, he did however have a missed cut, and even though he was the number one ranked player in the 925 model the "Data Tag" noticed that he was not a lock. Just examples of how this data has all been adding up to make weeks in PGA DFS easier.

I also want to call out some slight updates I made:

- "Tournament Log" : This was added to the 925 PGA Cheat Sheet.

- Recent Form: Over the past 3 months I saw that recent form after 6 starts fell off. I have moved recent form to look at the past 6 starts, a golfer has made, while providing an great emphasis on their last start.

- Writeup: Instead of breaking down the writeup by each Tier I instead am going to break it down by a screenshot of who I have selected by: Core Plays, High Exposure, Mid Exposure, Low Exposure, and Fades. I will writeup why below that section. This is hopefully to give you guys a quicker easier view of what is relevant.

Key Stats:

- Effective Scoring

- BOB%

- SG AP

- SG TTL

- Par 5 SCR

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Red/Yellow

There is some risk in some spots of the lineup process that is not ideal but for the most part I feel we can make builds that give us the confidence to get 5 out of 6 across the cut line. My biggest issue this week is the lack of stand-outvalue plays. That will also make this week riskier.

Weather:

Nothing weather-wise that would suggest we need to do anything to crazy with our builds. Although there is a slight chance that the PM/AM wave gets the slightly better draw this week.

First Round Leader

AM Tee Times

I will be targeting AM Tee Times for FRL betting until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)

Burns 22/1

Scottie 16/1

Wise 25/1

Maverick 35/1

Putnam 40/1

Outright Bets:

Wise 16/1

Maverick 20/1

Scottie (5.5 are shit odds)

Burns 12/1

Smalley 65/1

Gordon 80/1

Round 1 Matchup Bets (3 Balls)

Takeaways:

The top 3 plays this week to me are the ones that rank out that way and the ones that the "Data Tag" says are core plays. It is really easy to see why.

Scottie is coming checking all the boxes and is an ideal type player to do well at this tournament. You could almost say the same for someone like Aaron Wise who is priced a little bit cheaper this week. Wise has great course history, is a great stat fit, and has been knocking and the door for a victory already this fall. He is someone that I would look at to start my builds.

Maverick McNealy is also coming in as an elite play. The only worry with him would be his Specialist stat. But he is someone who has now made 4 straight cuts in a row with all of them being top 20 finishes. Which is what he has done at this tournament the past 3 years. He and Wise make for great starting points with your builds.

Takeaways:

Sam Burns you could easily argue that he should be a core play, as the only reason he is getting knocked this week is due to his missed cut at this event that was on a different track. Simply put he is the second-best play and could easily go low.

Taylor Montgomery is the same play as Maverick McNealy except that McNealy has played this track before. That is really the only flaw with Montgomery as a play this week. Both golfers are very similiar options.

Patrick Rodgers has been a play that is paying off, and you guys know my strategy in DFS is to continue to roster golfers like that. He has made 5 straight cuts in a row with his last 4 all being top-30 finishes. Not a lock to dominate this week, but is a golfer that should be able to make the cut which is why the data loves him.

Mackenzie Hughes is really poppingsimilar this week. He has great course history, and although is total recent form does not rank out well he has now finished 23rd, 1st, and 25th in his last 3 events. That with his course history makes him an interesting play for sure. The issue is that he is a bad stat fit.

Alex Smalley will be a golfer that I place an outright bet on this week as he is too cheap for the quality of play that he is. He finished 15th at this event last year. Is a top 400 stat fit, and specialist. He has made the cut in his last 3 starts including an 11th-place finish in his last event. Smalley is one of those you kind of have to play because of the price point golfers this week.

Takeaways:

This event should be the perfect bounce-back spot for Finau. Plus it is not like he played terribly last week as he missed the cut on the number. Data wise that should almost mean a golfer like Finau is a lock to make the cut this week.

Denny McCarthy is a player that I have a tough time trusting this week at this price point which will also be the case for the next two golfers. Denny has great results at the Houston open and is coming in off of a 6th place finish. He is very much one of those plays that could miss the cut and it would not be shocking but also could be in contention on Sunday and it would not be shocking. Or do a little bit of both where he starts out hot and then finishes like 45th. Overall a good play just not someone I want to play in cash.

Andrew Putnam has just been playing great golf this season. He has now made 4 straight cuts in a row, and he also made the cut at this event last year. Overall at this price point Putnam is more of a shoulder shrug play, but if you end up on him you feel good about it.

Taylor Pendrith certainly feels priced up for a guy that has "struggled" Making the cut but finished 33rd 66th, 8th, and 68th in his last 4 starts. On top of that he missed the cut at this event last year. He should be someone that does well and makes the cut, but at the same time he is due for a missed cut, and I would not be shocked to see that happen this week.

Taylor Moore. A similar play to that of Pendrith where you like the form enough to look at him as a play, but not someone you're gung-ho about.

Takeaways:

This week the golfers that I view as Mid Exposure plays, and Low Exposure plays are basically the same.

Will Gordon is a golfer that I feel great going back this week as last week's only golfer I viewed strictly as a GPP play. He certainly proved that upside you would look for in a GPP-only play. But now he is priced up this week after that 3rd place finished last week. He is a quality play though. A top 10 stat fit with good form, and going 1 for 1 is a very interesting play this week.

Dean Burmester is a GPP only play, He had a strong week going last week, and finished 4th at an event just three weeks ago. Worth a look in GPPs.

Hodges, Rai, and Straka are all basically the same plays to me this week. I would probably rank them Hodges, Straka, and then Rai. Would not be shocking to see any of them have a good week but both Rai and Straka are coming in off two straight bad starts.

Takeaways:

Brandon Wu has been solid this year, and ranks out as a top 20 stat fit. It would not be shocking to see him have a great week this week. His price does seem too cheap.

Davis Thompson has a 12, and a 9th over his last 4 starts which have all been made cuts. A play you make to chase that recent upside.

Danny Willet has shown some upside, after a missed cut after some of the worst even golf fandom ever when Willett was putting for the victory 4 events ago he has been able to bounce back strong finishing 40th and 21st. A golfer that could have a good week at this track even though that has not happened yet for him.

David Lingmerth really struggled for a while after his win on the KFT 4 months ago. But his last two starts have been 8th and 11th. Enough for me to chase him as a play.

Robert Streb is my favorite play this week. He has good starts at the Houston Open finishing 7th and 28th. Plus has made the cut in his past 2 starts. When looking for a value play that is really all you need especially this week. Enough for me to give himcheap-made a look this week if I need to dip into this range.

Nick Taylor does seem like a cheap made cut as well.

Player Pool Breakdown:

Player Pool is rank in order

(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)

Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.

GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.

Cash: Core + Rodgers, Burns, Putnam

GPP: Finau, Pendrith, Moore, Dean, Hughes

*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)

Might not be the exact build that I end up on this week. But I do love the idea of going 5 out of the 6 golfers that I really like into a build. Obviously with Streb we are just hoping that he makes the cut.

Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \

*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)

The ownership leverage tool worked wonders last week we had a lot of random golfers that be high owned, and a lot of chalk that was not worth eating and it worked out. Right now as the ownership sites we have a great chance to gain some leverage on the field.

Strange ownership with Shelton, and Rai right now soaking up a lot of it. Toss in Loss Pendrith and Hodges and this could be a good week. All golfers I do like as plays but not golfers you need to go out of your way to play by any means. Scottie being 32% projected owned while just starting to ease into the red is why I love this tool. He is properly owned this week at that ownership in this field.

Over Owned / Under Owned: