PGA DFS: Memorial Tournament 2022 (Members Only)

Overview/Recap

The Memorial Tournament has a lot of quality names this week, and a lot of quality plays. That is going to mean that it is going to be really easy to find great plays. The trouble that I have noticed is that it is hard to figure out what to do lineup process-wise. By the end of this writeup, I hope that we have clarity on what we should do.

It is a week where I am struggling to make strong builds because it falls off really after the 9K price point range in terms of safety. We have a ton of high upside plays this week though. I just wish more of the golfers would have a little bit better course history or not be coming in off of a missed cut recently.

Betting wise based off of the past really 5 winners at this tournament we can see that quality/great golfers tend to play well. Heck last year 3 of the top 10 golfers in the field Rahm, Morikawa, and Cantlay all finished 1st, and 2nd. It leads me to want to just target the golfers that are expected to play well.

A member notified me that the data sheets were not showing up on his mobile view while using his Iphone. I am guessing that is occurring with some other members as well. I am looking into how I can get that corrected. In the meantime, I have included a "Light" version of the Cheat Sheet for you to use on your mobile devices. Click the button below to view. *Note if there ever is an issue like this please let me know by sending me a DM.

Updates/Notes:

Course Preview:

Key Stats:

- Effective Scoring

- B2B

- SG AP

- Ball Striking

- SG OT

What surprised me about this tournament is how much off the tee matters here. When I think of a Parkland style course (treelined) I always think that Accuracy is going to be the biggest deal. Not this week. This week golfers that are successful are going to be gaining strokes off the tee. There are 13 + holes with water hazards in play so as long as a golfer does not make an extreme mistake by hitting into the water they should be good plays. That is why a stat like B2B ratio is a stat that pops here. How does a golfer not make mistakes? They have a strong approach game, and a strong approach game leads to

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2021, 2019, 2018, and 2017 course history.

H1 - Memorial 2021

H2 - Memorial 2020

H3 - Workday Charity Open (Same Course) 2020
 H4 - Memorial 2019

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow/Green

Last week we saw both sides of why I didn't grade it a full-on Green week. We had Brian Harmand and Billy Ho let us down, but also a big let down with HV3. Who really imploded on the back 9 on Sunday. It literally went from being a solid week for a lot of people with two golfers HV3, and Jordan anchoring a profitable week. Well HV3s back 9 did cost a lot of people. We know it was the correct play, and we know that he just mentally hated himself for choking, and he gave up. That sucked would have been better for him to never have had the lead at all on Sunday because then he would not have given up like he did. That's just one of those things you can't predict.

This week is a lot like last week just with much safer plays for the Core and High Exposure plays. Whereas the Mid Exposure plays are all risk-reward. The easy part about this week is we know who the great plays are. The tough part about this week is trying to fit those golfers into a build together as they are priced up. The Mid-Tier is loaded with quality plays, just none of them are extremely safe like we are used to, and we might be forced into playing one or two of them in cash.

Weather:

Golf course is currently expected to play pretty easy given the conditions. It is not windy, and with the Thursday rain should make the course nice and soft. The one thing to pay attention to is when that Thursday rain comes. Is it AM or PM rain. If it is AM rain the AM tee times could be playing in really easy conditions whereas the PM has to deal with the green drying up and that would make figuring out the greens harder. If it is PM there won't be much of an advantage.

BETTING:

There are around 20 golfers I could see winning this week which is more than I typically see winning. Does that always work out, no? But at least we are able to go through the process and cross off golfers to give us the best betting card possible. This week that is not exactly the case. I find myself cashing better odds a little bit more this week.

First Round Leader

AM Tee Times

Cameron Young 40/1

Joaquin Niemann 40/1

Cameron Smith 35/1

Patrick Cantlay 18/1

Willy Z 35/1

Billy Ho 40/1

(Targeting PM Tee Times Rahm and Rory are pretty obvious choices for FRL bets if weather does not play a big factor which it is not supposed

 Outright Bets:

Cantlay 16/1

Rahm 10/1

Xander 20/1

Jordan 25/1

Homa 40/1

Rory 12/1

Round 1 Matchup Bets (3 Balls)

Young over Villegas and Stallings

Berger over Donald and Moliniri

Kuchar over Ortiz and Sneds

Harman over Clark and Lingmerth

Power over KH Lee, and Leishman

Pan over Swafford and Willett

Hadwin over Putnamn and Watney

Palmer over Davis and Long

Riley over Nesmith and Tringale

KEegan over Lashley and English

Kitayama over Morgan and Wu

Zalatoris over Herbert and Day

Placement Bets:

Jordan Top 10 +200

Rory Top 10 +115

Steele Top 10 +1000

Fitzpatrick Top 10 +225

Young Top 10 +330

Xander Top 20 -140

Niemann Top 20 +150

Power Top 20 +200

Conners Top 20 +200

Willett Top 40 +260

Lower Top 40 +400

HIGH TIER PLAYS: ($9,000 AND UP)

The toughest part about this week is that I could make a strong argument for why Rahm, Rory, Hovland, Willy Z, Jordan, and Xander should all be treated as the top-rated play this week, and I think that is why we are going to see the ownership spread out in this price point range. Going lower down in this price point range we just see that the golfers are the same plays just their lack of wins is why they are priced where they are. For Example Fitzpatrick, and Lowry are quality plays this week but Xander, and Rory have better winning upside career-wise. I basically have to touch on every play in this range this week because they are all quality plays, and really anyone one of them can pop, I want to give you my thoughts on them as plays so that you can make the best decision possible.

Jon Rahm - $11,100 - Core Play: Rahm is the highest-priced player on this slate for a reason. He has finished 1st (W/D last year with covid but was paid up by some books), 1st, and 27th at this event over the past 4 years. He is 1st in Strokes Gained Off Tee, 13th in B2B, and 9th in ESC. Overall He ranks out as the 6th best stat fit. He is the top Specialist in the field, has the 2nd best Course History, and the 2nd best Recent Form. He has made 11 straight cuts in a row on tour and just had a victory 2 events ago. I do think that he has a strong chance to win, FRL, but I think a "safe" bet would be for him to top 10.

Rory McIlroy - $10,900 - Mid Exposure: Jordan just feels like he is due for a win, and it would not be shocking for that to happen this week. He has faced "criticism" for not being able to close out tournaments and win especially after the PGA Championship. I could see him using that as motivation for him this week. He has now finished 8th, 5th, and 2nd in his last 3 starts. He has the best recent form in the field, and his only knock this week is his Course History rank due to his missed cut in 2019. Besides that, he is a great play.

Patrick Cantlay - $10,700 - Low Exposure: I am writing off the MC at the PGA Championship due to weather but he sucked, he was just trash that week. That was after losing in a playoff, and winning so a random bad week was not overly surprising it was just how bad he played. If it wasn't for his course history I might not like him as much as I do. He has finished 1st, 32nd, 7th, and 1st over the past 4 years. Obviously, this is a course that he loves.

Xander Schauffele - $10,200 - Core Play : Xander on paper is just the safest of the plays to pay up for. He is in better recent form than Morikawa and Cantlay. He has the same course history as both of them but much more consistent results finishing 11th, 13th, 14th, and 14th. Xander has finished 13th, 5th, and 1st over his past 3 starts on tour as well. I guess the biggest worry with Xander this week is that although he has no weakness stat fit wise, he only ranks out 18th in the field. Which I wish was much better at this price point. Still I think he is a strong play this week, and I think he has a decent chance to win as well.
 

Jordan Spieth - $9,700 - Core Play: Jordan should also be an extremely safe play this week. He is the 4th best stat fit in the field ranking 36th or better in all the key stats this week. He is the 10th best specialist in the field, and lately has been in strong recent form finishing 7th, 34th, 2nd, and 1st in his last 4 starts. Prior to that Jordan hadn't been playing terrible he just was lacking in terms of upside prior to those starts with his best finish in 5 starts being 26th. I don't want to blame a baby for his poor play prior to that but you could say that Jordan had been adjusting to being a new dad during that stretch of golf because he has been a stud for over the past month or so. Course History wise Jordan has finished 18th, 13th, MC, and 7th. He ranks out as the 8th best play this week, and I think he has a strong chance to compete for the win this week.

Will Zalatoris - $9,400 - Low Exposure: Willy Z has missed the cut twice in three starts and he still ranks out top 5 in recent form that is because over his last 6 starts he has 4 top 10 finishes. Heck over the past year a third of his starts have been top-ten finishes. Eventually, Zalatoris is going to break through for a win, and this week ranking out as a top 10 stat fit could be that week. But I worry about his winning upside due to him not having any course history, and due to that, I will not be using him as an outright bet. But I do think he is a strong GPP play, and he could be someone that ends up in the winning GPP build.

Viktor Hovland $9,300 - Low Exposure: Hovland ranks out as a top 10 play, and he is checking all the boxes this week. He has made the cut here 3 straight times finishing 3rd at the Work Day Charrity Open. He is a top 5 stat fit with no real weaknesses in his game for this week. The biggest worry with Hovland would be the same as Morikawa if you end up on him as a play, and that is that his upside has been limited as of late. I do think that Hovland makes the cut but his upside might be limited.

Matt Fitzpatrick - $9,100 - High Exposure: Outright wise Fitzpatrick is tough because you could argue that like JT if you keep putting yourself in a spot to win eventually, he will win. This is exactly what he has done lately finishing 5th, 2nd, MC, 14th, 5th, 10th, and 6th. You keep doing that and eventually, you will figure out a way to win. Fitzpatrick has finished MC, 3rtd, 27th, and 68th at this event in the past so both good and bad for course history overall ranking out 34th in the field. He is the third-best specialist in the field, 17th best stat fit, and 10th overall in the model. I do like him a lot as a play but just can't justify him as a core play due to him missing the cut here last year.

Shane Lowry - $9,000 - High Exposure: Lowry is a very similar play to Fitzpatrick this week where you could argue that he is due for a win. Lowry has made 8 straight cuts in a row with all of those finishes being top 25. Lowry has finished 6th, MC, and 39th at this course over the past 4 years. He is a decent stat fit as well. The issue with Lowry, and the reason why I could end up not playing him is his ownership, which is currently 19 % owned. Which is currently the 2nd highest ownership. You could easily just play one of the other quality stand-out plays instead.

MID TIER PLAYS: ($8,900 - $8,000)

Cameron Young - $8,800 - Mid Exposure: The thing that I love about Young as a golfer is that you can see it on him that he wants to play his very best on every single golf shot! This will eventually lead into a win, but like Will Zalatoris I worry that lack of course history could lead to him not winning. Still he is a strong strong play this week. He is the 2nd best in SGOT, and pretty strong everywhere else stat fit wise. His recent form is crazy good ranking out 9th in the field. Here are his finishes: 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, MC, MC, 13th, 16th, and second. He is a strong specialist as well ranking out 18th in the field. Young's time will come for him to win, and heck it could be this week, but I do worry about him winning this week. With the earliest tee time in round 1 and being the 3rd most likely to have the first-round lead he makes for a strong FRL Bet, and a strong showdown pick as well.

Max Homa - $8,700 - High Exposure: I love Max Homa as a play this week especially given his price point. He has an 80% chance to make the cut which ranks out 10th in the field. This is due to his strong recent form ranking out 3rd in fhe field. He has made the cut in his last 10 starts on tour. His last four starts were 23rd, 13th, 1st, and 41st. He is a top 5 stat fit in the field ranking out top 27 or better in all the key stats this week. Homa missed the cut at this course two events in a row in 2020 (they were back-to-back weeks so could've just been a rough stretch of golf). last he finished 6th though. It would not be shocking to see Homa in contention to win again this week.

Davis Riley / Mito Pereira - $8,600 / $8,000 - Low Exposure Plays: It really does not make sense as to why Riley is that $600 more than Mito, and that is probably why Mito is going to be higher owned than him. Both to me are the same plays though, where you love their recent form, and that is what you're going to chase, but for me it is sort of a guessing game as to which one of Riley, Mito, and even Young are going to pull through. I could see any one of them finishing top 5 this week, and I could see any one of them missing the cut. They are all quality plays, But for me, I would rather trust a golfer that has made some starts here prior than just go gun-ho with anyone one of these three especially Riley, and Mito.

Corey Conners - $8,400 - Mid Exposure: Conners is another one of those golfers who just sucked at the PGA Championship but much like Scottie was able to bounce back last week I expect Conners, and Cantlay to bounce back this week. Conners has looking ties to Ohio going to college there. That is why it is not too shocking to see that he has played well at this course making the cut in 4 straight tries all though his best finish was 22nd. Conners AP game has been struggling lately though and if that continues he could be in for a rough week, I just do not see him struggling that much this week. Conners is strong off the tee as well. He ranks out top 15 in the model, and I think that he will get a top 25 or so finish this week. I trust Conners over Riley, Mito, and Young this week to make the cut.

Seamus Power - $8,000 - Low Exposure: A new stat that I made this last week is the "All Gas No Breaks Stat" which is something that I wanted to include for a "Win Rank" on the "Betting" tab of the website. The "All Gas No Breaks Stat" measures a golfer(s) starts minus their missed cuts so basically when their game is on do they have the upside to win. (Yes Sam Burns made me do this stat). Well Power ranks out 14th in Win Rank which is a little bit better than his Model Rank at 21st which includes his likelihood to make the cut. Over the past year Power has a victory, and a top 10 finish in 8 starts, and a top 25 finish in 16 of his starts. The upside is there for him as a play, and to me he is basically the same play as Mito, as Riley, and as Young, just with actual winning upside. He is not a perfect play by any means but being half the ownership of all three of them is strange. He is a high-risk good reward play if he makes the cut.

LOW TIER PLAYS: ($7,900 - $7,000)

Billy Horschel- $7,900 - Mid Exposure: Billy Ho has finished 67th, 13th, 7th, and 9th at this course over his past 4 starts which is extremely good. The issue with Billy Ho is that he has been a major letdown the last two weeks but prior to that had been playing great. Like with Scottie as an example maybe the MC will benefit Billy Ho this week, and he can use it as a mental reset. He still ranks out well this week top 22 or better in all the key metrics. Last week's missed cut could end up being a blessing in disguise as he is now a cheaper play.

Adam Scott - $7,700 - Low Exposure: Scott has finished 16th, and 2nd at this course over the past 4 years. When you think about a course that Scott would do well at it is very much a course like this. Scott has been annoying as a fantasy golf play this season as his two most recent missed cuts were due to one terrible hole. He has been a great play besides that. I do think he makes the cut, but those two missed cuts because of one bad hole are annoying and scary to trust. He should still be a good play.

Alex Noren - $7,500 - Low Exposure: Noren in simple is a good enough play at this price point. He ranks 26th in Specialist Rating, 23rd Stat Fit, 40th in Course History Rank, and 24th in Recent Form Form. Really just good enough across the board. Overall ranking out as the 24th best play this week. I think he will make the cut it is just how much upside does he really give you and it is not too much safety.

CT Pan - $7,200 - Mid Exposure: This is very much one of those plays that I might just keep making until they miss the cut. Pan has made 6 straight cut in a row now, and has also made 3 straight cuts at this tournament. Sure the lack of upside is the worry with both but at $7,200 getting a made cut would be good enough for me. That is what we are hoping for from Pan as a play.

Denny McCarthy - $7,000 - Low Exposure: I mean this guy just keeps making cuts, and although this is a course in which does not fit his game he still could find a way to make the cut.

Other Picks I like: Wise, Kuchar

VALUE TIER PLAYS: ($6,900 - $6,000)

Ryan Palmer - $6,900 - Lower Exposure: Palmer is a play that you making trying to catch him coming into form. Because he is very much someone that is a fun ride when they are in good form, until he eventually burns you in a bad way. Palmer finished 2nd at this tournament in 2020. He has went 40th, MC, and 5th over his past 3 starts. He has been strong off the tee this season as well. For really any of the values this week it would be least shocking to see Palmer get a top 20 finish.

Troy Merritt- $6,900 - Lower Exposure: Merritt has been a cut maker this season, now making the cut in 3 straight events. He has made the cut here in 3 out of 4 starts. The worry that I have for him is that the added length cut hurt him throughout the week to limit his upside. But I do think he has a good chance to make the cut, and that is all you want at this price point.

Brendan Steele $6,600 - Low Exposure: Steele is an interesting play this week, and that is because he is getting ownership, at 11% which for a fringe value play is a lot. Steele has made the cut in 6 straight starts and has two top 10 finishes in his last 3. He has also made the cut here in 4 straight starts. he has been strong off the tee as well. Overall he ranks out as the 41st best play. Really not a terrible value play, and if he is going to be that high owned he really would not hurt you that much if he misses the cut in cash. He is also 10 to 1 to top 10 which I don't hate as a "try to get lucky bet". I typically like to fade an over-own play in cash but that is when we have similar plays at higher price points. With Steele at 6.6 it already doesn't really hurt you if he misses the cut. With him as a play you're already trying to lock in one or two elite plays on the top end as well. I like using him in cash. Even though he is underpriced that does not make him an elite play which is why he is still a low-exposure play.

Danny Willett - $6,200 - Low Exposure: Another interesting play given their price point is Danny Willett. Willett has finished 26th, 32nd, and 27th. Will has made the cut in 3 out of his past 4 starts on tour as well. The thing with Willett that I noticed is that he just is not someone that scores. So in events where making a lot of birdies is key he is not your guy. So looking at his specialist rating of 32nd that tells me more about his as a play rather than the model rank this week. He does of the 12th best course history in the field as well. Willett is a sneaky value play this week. I might just go Willett and Steele in cash.

Other Picks I like: Rodgers, Vegas, Hughes, and Lower

Player Pool Breakdown:

Player Pool is rank in order

Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.

GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.

Cash: Xander, Jordan, Fitzpatrick, Lowry, Homa Conners, Hovland Pan, (Steele and Willett (Values)

GPP: Palmer, Young, Billy Ho, Mito, Riley, Power

*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.

Lineup Process:

Two builds this week as examples. The first is a stud and duds example, and the second is fair and balanced

The first build we get 3 golfers in Xander, Jordan, and Homa that should be made cuts. Those are the 3 golfers I really want to go out of my way to play. But by doing this it creates a much risky build to close out with. Willett, Steele, and Conners are all fine as more of lineup fillers but by adding all three it creates more risk than I would like.

This second build is much more balanced and I think if should be safer, and has just as much upside. But the top-end plays are not as safe, and Pan, and Noren are quality plays but at the same time are not elite plays that you want to go out of your way to make either.

Taking a look at the players that are under owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \

Under Owned:

With so many quality plays on the top end it is no surprise that some of the golfers are being undervalued. Heck the top golfer in the field is sup 20% projected ownership. That is going to lead to me making a few more builds with in them. It is no surprise that Billy Ho is a little bit under-owned this week but that could be a blessing for us this week. Those were the two that stood out to me the most as being under-owned at this point in the week.

Over Owned:

Streelman getting a lot of ownership makes sense because his course history is so good but he has sucked, and the added length could get to him. That is also whey I worry about Reed as well he has been hitting the ball a lot shorter this season. Kirk and Wise getting that much ownership is interesting to me as they are more of shoulder shrug plays rather than have to play guys. Same goes for Hoge. All are easy fades.

Round 1 Showdown:

*Using the FRL betting Tool

The First Round will come down to weather or not the rain makes the AM Greens easier than the PM Greens. As of writing this the rain doesn't seemed to be that much so the thought is they would soften up in the morning allowing golfers to fire at pins. For the most part their might not be a big tee time advantage but I think I'll be targeting some AM only builds. The rest will be full slate builds.

Cameron Young will most likely be chalk because everyone has figured out that he dominates in round 1 plus he has an AM tee time. I have plenty of him but I did strategically fade him in a few builds this slate in case he slips up. He ranks top 5 in FRL.

Besides the golfers on the FRL Bet list I also like Mito, Vegas, Merritt as good and cheaper RD1 Showdown plays.

Patrick Cantlay is an obvious play for this slate. 2nd most likely to have the FRL. Last year he finished with the 11th best score after the First Round, in 2020 he finished with the 12th best score in the first round. Should be a safe play.

A lot of people will probably play Jordan I do not see him as a must play. I'd rather play Willy Z, or Cameron Smith.

Seamus Power and Chris Kirk have been very solid in RD1 scoring this year and are good enough plays this week. Both ranked out top 20 in FRL. Kirk was one off the FRL last year. Power just has the favorable tee time.

The last player that could be ok is Bo Hoag who shot an opening 68 last year. This was good for the 4 best opening round score. He lives in Columbus Ohio which is 30 mins from the course. He knows this course and has played it well in the past. He also has an AM tee time. (You could make the same case for Dufner as a value)

Round 2 Showdown:

The weather is not going to play a big role into round 2, but it still looks like there is going to be a slightly favorable edge to the morning tee times. If anything it helps us narrow down who we can be on.

Most likely to improve putting:

The interesting thing about the golfers that are most likely to improve putting is that most of them are from the AM/PM split. None of them are really golfers I want to go out of my way to play. Moving on.

Top Picks for RD 2 Showdown:

The two players that are looking like stand-out plays for RD Two Showdown are Viktor Hovland and Jon Rahm. Both golfers played fine, but couldn't piece together a full round.

For Jon Rahm the issue really came on one bad swing on a Par 5 that landed near the creek, and he ended up not being able to punch out. You take that out, and give him a birdie on that hole and his round looks a lot better. I do expect him to have a better round and so does the data saying that he is the 5th most likley to play better in round 2. He is the 2nd best pick in round two behind Hovland. I do worth that Hovland might not go low enough but he should be in for an under-par round which win mean that we can use him in cash.

Mito Pereira is a name that is popping up that struggled for a lot of round 1 but was still able to get back to +1 on the day. It would not be shocking at all to see him have one of the low rounds of the day.

Interestingly Shane Lowry, and Corey Conners are expected to continue to play well. They both shot -3 which basically tells us that the data believes they have a strong chance of doing that again tomorrow. At Conners price point it may be very are not to roster him.

That is really it for me for the call out plays, I do think golfers like Davis Riley, Xander, and Rory are good options to continue to play well tomorrow. I see them more as shoulder shrug plays.

You could however just go with a balanced build tomorrow and have a decent chance at cashing. A balanced build would include: Sungjae, Mito, Conners, Lowry, and Hovland. Filling in with Alex Smalley as a value who is projected in the top 40 for rank two rank.

Most Likely to Win heading into Round 2:

Both the Cameron's (Smith and Young) rank out 1 and 2 to win this thing. Surprisingly Shane Lowry ranks out 3rd even though he is 2 back, and Xander ranks out 5th best even though he is 3 back. This basically tells us that they get better throughout the week, whereas some of the other golfers that might be up there do now. Another golfers that I do not hate the idea of adding is possibly Corey Conners who ranks 11th most likely to win. He had a solid day in rd1 and I think he will be play a consistent golfer this weekend.

Lowry 14/1

Xander 18/1

Conners 25/1