PGA DFS: Open Championship 2022 (Members Only)

Overview/Recap

I don't know about you guys but I am very excited for The Open Championship. we get some very soft pricing for DFS, some strong outright bets, on a very historical course. on top of that, it seems like we are not going to have to worry about the weather that much this week. (Fingers crossed) I will be covering the Barracuda Championship this week again as well the same way that I covered the Barbasol Championship. So the coverage for The Open Championship will be the deep dive, and the Barracuda Championship will be the short and to the point.

Here I have made it easier to pivot to a different tournament that is going on, so if you want to switch to the Barbasol Championship you just click the PGA (2) button. The next update that I made was to add in the "Data Tag" which is a formula that I made to call out which golfers would statically be. I have it broken down like I would break down the writeup as well. Now I may not always agree with the Tag that is there but it will be a great tool to reference. Like I have listed before this data sheet is mobile-friendly, and the other sheets will be getting this treatment as well.

On the video this week you will see me using what is an updated version of the cheat sheet. I had made this to help put less "stress" on mobile devices. Right now I am put in the website as a soft launch so that as I use it this week I can see what thing should be adjusted and tweaked. The great thing about this tool is that you can now turn your phone to the side and it will operate as it would on the website. The link to that is in the white button. The Cheat is still the Cheat Sheet Light.

Updates/Notes:

Key Stats:

- Effective Scoring

- B2B

- Par 5 Scoring

- SG Putting

- SG AP

- SGT2G

Really the key stats are going to come down to not making dumb mistakes, scoring on Par 5s, and not 4 putting (Molinari). Ok it will be more like limiting not 3 putting hopefully, but this should be a deciding factor. This was the way Zach Johnson was able to win in 2015, and all though 2015 is too long ago to really use as a data point I see it as a good thing to take notes from.

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2021, 2019, 2018, and 2017 course history.

H1 - Open Championship 2021

H2 - Open Championship 2019

H3 - Open Championship 2018
 H4 - Open Championship 2017

We should look at the Open Championship history from 2015 but that is so far in the past that I do not think that will be worthwhile.

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow

This week I love Jordan Smith, and a lot of the DP Tour values as well as Wyndham Clark to potentially round out a more studs and duds build. Tack that onto Max Homa being too cheap, and it should be easy to make a good build. For me I do see the lineup process being a more simple approach this week, the tough part is going to be about deciding which stand-out play to not be on.

Weather:

The weather does not look like it will be an issue at all for the golfers this week. The AM showers that are in the forecast will most likely lead to a little bit easier of scoring conditions for the AM tee times as the greens will be a little bit softer in the AM, and in the PM the greens will harden up. For Showdowns in RD1, and RD2 I will be targeting the AM tee times as a result.

BETTING:

First Round Leader

AM Tee Times

I will be targeting AM Tee Times for FRL betting until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)

Cam Smith

Tommy Fleetwood

Billy Horschel

Rory

Xander

Power

 Outright Bets:

Cantlay

Fitz

Xander

Smith

Round 1 Matchup Bets (3 Balls)

N/A

Placement Bets:

Top 10 Bets:

Rory

Top 20 Bets:

Xander

Fitz

Top 40 Bets:

Smith

HIGH-TIER PLAYS: ($9,000 AND UP)

The biggest problem with this price point range is that both Xander and Matt Fitzpatrick are popping a ton, and they are both coming in off of a win. I still love them as plays but it adds another element to this price point range.

Rory McIlroy - $11,100 - High Exposure:

Personally, I really like Rory as a play, and I bet most are feeling the same way as well. Rory have been playing the best golf out of any golfer in the field over his last 10 starts. Key stat wise Rory ranks top 10 or betting in all of the key stats that we are looking at this week. (in the field). The only slight worry with Rory that I have is that he might put too much pressure on himself to play well. Now Rory when he is motivated to play well he is literally one of the best golfers ever, and he is certainly motivated. But this is a course that he has been very vocal about wanting to win at for a major. I could lead that to him putting to much pressure on himself to play well, and thus he might not be as sharp as we would like.

Jon Rahm - $10,800 - Mid Exposure:

Rahm made the cut last week but he did somewhat struggle finishing 49th, this did continue at active cut streak of 14 which is very impressive. I think we will continue to get that safety with him, I am just not sure if we have to pay up for him as a play this week. He does rank out as the 3rd best play in the 925 model due to his safety, and his upside. My general worry with Rahm as a play is that his patience or lack thereof gets to him on these massive greens.

Xander Schaufelle - $9,900 - Core Play

Most of the time I would not like the idea of playing a golfer coming off of a win, but Xander is just different mentally with this and you can visually see it. He has been very laid back, and letting the courses, and shots come to him. Patient, calm and knowing what he needs to do to play well. Personally, I see no reason to fade him, this "break-out" was part of why I thought him and Cantlay winning the Zurich was so huge that it would basically re-teach him how to win, and that once he did something like this would happen, and I could even see it happening again. He has been hitting the ball how he wants to and not making mistakes. That should lead to great golf being played this week.

Matt Fitzpatrick - $9,700 - Core Play

Once again this week I feel like Fitzpatrick is a the same lay as Xander, except this week he actually ranks out slightly better in the 925 model. I think this is mostly coming from Fitz being a slightly better stat fit. Fitzpatrick has been on a tear this season, and his breakout win at the US Open was one of my most rememberable moments on the season. Fitzpatrick ranks out 3rd in recent form rank, has made the cut in 3 out of the last 4 Open Championships and is a great specialist in the field. I love the fact that both him as Xander played well last week at a course that should play similar to the course that we have this week.

Patrick Cantlay - $9,400 - Core Play

Personally, I do not get what has been going on with Cantlay's price lately. Sure he missed the cut at the Open Championship last year, and has struggled at the big events this year but that was due to being on the bad end of a weather draw. With weather looking like it should not be an issue we shouldn't have to worry about that. Cantlay has went MC, 41st, and 12th at the past 3 Open Championships. Over his past 4 starts on the PGA Tour he has went 4th, 13th, 14th, and 3rd. Yea have probably seen me type this before but when Xander is a good play so in Cantlay. That is what we have once again this week. I will say do like Cantlay the least of the big 3 (Fitz, Xander, and Cantlay). But he is also the cheapest, so he is the easiest golfer to end up on.

Shane Lowry - $9,300 - High Exposure

I feel like a lot of people are going to end up on Lowry this week simply because he is the cheapest of the elite options. He ranks out in the 4th best recent form, and is the 3rd best stat fit. He has now went 12th, and 1st at the past 2 Open Championships after missing the cut in 2018 and 2017. Lowry has made some strange mistakes to close out his tournaments which have led to him not winning events, and maybe it is like Fitzpatrick where it was all leading up to a moment like this, personally, I do not think he is going to win but I do think he makes for a strong top 20 bet.

Other PIcks I like: Smith, Jordan

MID TIER PLAYS: ($8,900 - $8,000)

Tommy Fleetwood - $8,600 - High Exposure

My worry with Mr Fleetwood is that he only ranks out top 25 in the 925 model, but if we look at the newly added "Data Tag" we see that the data also believes that he should be a high exposure play. The reason for this is that Fleetwood has made the cut at this event in 4 straight tries finishing: 33rd, 2nd, 12th, and 27th. He is not the best stat fit but does rank out in the top half of every key stat which suggests that he has no glaring weakness for this event/course. The think that I like a lot about Fleetwood is that he finished 4th at last weeks event. He should be a solid made-cut option. My only worry with him as a play is that he is much worse of a play compared to the next High Exposure play, and is not as good of a play as Max Homa.

Tony Finau - $8,400 - Mid Exposure

I do like Finau as a play this week, and he is a very similar play to Fleetwood, expect he is going to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate, I don't really see the need for that. He is almost checking all the boxes though. He has went 15th, 3rd, 9th, and 27th at this event, he is top 15 or better in the key stats we are looking at, but where he is getting knocked is that he missed a cut 2 events ago. Besides that Finau is a great play, and I think fully fading him would be a mistake.

Other PIcks I like: Niemann, Conners

LOW TIER PLAYS: ($7,900 - $7,000)

Max Homa - $7,900 - Core Play

Homa is priced as one of those plays that you just have to play given their price point. Homa ranks top 15 or better in all the key stats, he finished 40th at this event last year, and he has made 13 straight cuts in a row on the PGA Tour including a 16th place finish last week. he is the 15th best specialist, and overall ranks out 2nd in stat rank, and 5th in recent form rank. Really the only worry that I have with him as a play this week is that he is playing with Tiger. That means bigger crowds, and honestly more pressure. Besides that he is an elite play at this price point.

Seamus Power - $7,400 - Mid Exposure:

Power should be a solid lowered priced play to go with this week, but he is far from a lock. In his last 3 starts he has went 30th, 25th, and 12th overall ranking out in the 27th best recent form. He is the 26th best stat fit as well with no real hiccups in his game this week. He grew up around courses like this. He also ranks out top 20 in the 925 model. Tough to not be on him a little bit as a play.

Harold Varner III - $7,200 - Low Exposure:

Varner is a great GPP play, and a terrible cash play this week. he is a top 25 stat fit, and is in the 15th best recent form. The issue is that two events ago he missed the cut, and he also missed the cut at this event last year. Still he should be able to make the cut and if he makes the cut he will give you top 20 upside.

Jordan Smith - $7,200 - High Exposure:

Priced at 7,200 I think that Munoz is firmly in play ,h all of the made cuts being top 25 or better finishes, including last week where he was inside the top 10 with an outside chance to win heading into Sunday before he collapsed and finished 24th. Which is still a solid week. The chances are Smith is going to make the cut, and heck he could even end up in contention to win again. Just at this price point, he will be tough for me to pass up on.

Thomas Pieters, Adrian Meronk, and Ryan Fox - $7,200 - Low Exposure

To me all three are great options to make the cut his week, and are both golfers I will have some of this week. Pieters has made 3 straight cuts at this event and has finished 37th, T1 (lost in playoff) and 27th. He should be a quality play at this price point. Meronk proved why its tough to trust a golfer when they finally breakthrough for a win missing the cut. It would not be shocking to see Meronk miss the cut or finish top 10. Lastly Fox has been playing extremely well ranking out in the 2nd best recent form in the field. I think both Fox and Pieters give you a strong chance at a made cut, whereas Meronk I see being riskier but having slightly more upside.

Other Picks I like: Wise, Tringale, and English.

VALUE TIER PLAYS: ($6,900 - $6,000)

Justin Harding - $6,800 - Low Exposure: Harding is an interesting play this week, and he is really the only LIV golfer that I want to be on. He has finished 19th and 41st at the past two Open Championships. He is typically a strong putter. The worry is that where will he be at mentally. Last week he dominated in round 1, and then finished 60th. Could he play well and make the cut? Yes do I expect it, not really.

Thomas Detry - 6,600 - Low Exposure: Detry is a solid value in my eyes. Now he is a bad stat fit, and missed the cut last year at this event. But he has made 4 straight cuts in a row now, and he is typically just a consistent golfer. I think that he does enough to make the cut.

Thriston Lawrence - $6,500 - Low Exposure: Lawrence has been playing well only missing one cut over his past 10 starts. Overall ranking out top 20 in recent form rank. He is a good enough value at this price point to target in DFS this week.

Alexander Bjork - $6,400 - Low Exposure: I am not as gun-ho about Bjork as a play this week as I was last week but he is still a quality play, and I think that he is a solid play, and I think I like him the best as a value play this week. Bjork has made the cut in 8 out of his last 10 starts. He has finished top 25 or better in 6 of those events. He is a solid value at this price point

Other Picks I like: Hughes, Clark

Player Pool Breakdown:

Player Pool is rank in order

Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.

GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.

Cash: Xander, Fitz, Cantlay, Homa, J. Smith, Fleetwood, Lowry, Fox, Bjork

GPP: Rory, Finau, Rahm, Power, Cam Smith, Jordan, Meronk, Wise

*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.

Lineup Process:

I have not decided which way I am going to go with this build just yet, but this would be my starting point for my builds, I know that I want theses 5 in most of my builds, and i'll just adjust one in and out where needed.

Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \

*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.

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Over Owned / Under Owned;

I really do not see the need to go out of way to play any of the over owned golfers this week as it sits right now.

Round 1 Showdown:

*Using the FRL betting Tool

TBD

BARACUDDA CHAMPIONSHIP THOUGHTS:

Core Plays: Maverick Mcnealy, Taylor Pendrith and Mark Hubbard

High Exposure Plays: Hurly Long, Paul, Gligic

Mid Exposure: Noren, Cook, O'Hair

Low Exposure: Puntman, Hardy, Huh, Schwab, Baldwin, Yul Noh

Outright Bets:

McNealy, Pendrith, Hubbard, Long, Gligic