PGA DFS: PGA Championship (Members Writeup)

The PGA Championship is here, which to me is the best or second-best fantasy golf week we get all year. That is because the field is deep with talent, thus we know that there are going to be a lot of great value plays and bets that we can make this week.

Update - Stephan Jaeger has been added to the DK player pool. He is priced at below $7,000 which makes him the best sub 7K play this week. I like him better than I do Hayden Buckley and will be ranking him as such.

This Weeks Video:

Key Stats:

- Effective Scoring

- Ball Striking

- Total Driving

- Bogey Avoidance

- SG Differential

- SG Total

With this being the PGA Championship it is a course that we do not see much, with that there is a little bit of an educated guess for which key stats we should be looking at. The way I was able to determine this is by looking at some of the Comparable Courses for the week. The way I was able to determine those is by looking at the key characteristics for this week's tournament. (The Specialist Data). One of the main data points was looking at Donald Ross Courses, the PGA Championship last year, the US Open last year, and the Houston Open. Looking at the most significant stats for those tournaments, and events.

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

As stated above these are the comparable courses that I am looking at this week. This is due to the similarities those courses, and tournaments have compared to this tournament.

H1 - 2022 - PGA Championship

H2 - 2022 - US Open

H3 - 2022 Donald Ross Courses

H4 - 2023 - Houston Open

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Green

This week is a week that I typically like to attack because on paper it looks like an easy week. There will be a golfer or two that slips up at this event that no one expects to struggle, that is a little bit of a worry. But for the most part this should be an easy-to-predict week, and a week in which 5 out of 6 across the cut line is easy to do.

Weather:

For the first time in what seems like forever, we are going to get a good weather event for a major event. The weather should not be an issue this week.

First Round Leader

AM Tee Times

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)

Outright Bets:

Xander

Cantlay

Hatton

Fitzpatrick

Rickie

3 Ball Bets:

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.

Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most.

Takeaways:

Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler are the clear-cut top two choices this week. The only flaw that they both have is that they struggled at last year's PGA. This year I really do not see that being an issue. This is due to last years PGA having a huge weather advantage/disadvantage. So I believe that we should not be drawing too many conclusions from last year's PGA. If someone played well great. If someone you thought would play well didn't and every other data point suggests that they should have played well last year like Rahm and Scottie I believe we can simply just look past it.

From there I Xander is the next best play to me, he has good comp course history, and overall is a solid stat fit. Xander is really coming to check all the boxes this week, and I think there is a decent chance that he finally breaks through. The Ninetofive model has Rahm, Scottie and Xander as golfers that have a +90% chance to make the cut.

Sungjae Im and Tyrrell Hatton look like they will be solid starting points this week for fair and balanced based builds. They are both coming in showing both safety and upside with multiple top 10 finishes over their past 4 starts.

The two biggest reasons I could come up with for why Wyndham Clark is priced this low is that he hasn't really produced in previous majors and because he is coming in off of a win. Clark with his win was very vocal about buying into the mental aspect of being able to close out an event and get the win. He said this was something that he has been working on, and I believe him, if they end up being true getting mentally prepared for this year's PGA should be easier for him. If that ends up being true he is clearly not priced correctly as he is an elite stat fit, and in some great form. Heck, it wouldn't be surprising to see him in contention again.

Rickie Fowler, I love as a play this week. He is a golfer ranking out top 10 in recent form rank, and that is because he has been a cut-making machine. I also can't recall the last time he didn't finish inside the top 25. He should be a great play, and he is almost a no-brainer play given this price as well. (Updated - Moving Rickie to a Core Play as I finish writing this)

Takeaways:

Patrick Cantlay could easily be a Core Play this week, and I am not so sure that he shouldn't, because just like Rahm and Scottie the one bad data point coming in on him as a play this week is that start at last years PGA. Besides that he looks like an elite play.

From there we get Tony Finau who I would like a little bit better if he produced well at Majors, just something seems to be off when he tee's it up a Major, as he often disappoints. That being said this is probably the best that he has ever looked coming into this event. I do think he has GPP winning upside, just have struggled to go out of my way to fit him into cash build.

You take away one swing from Jason Day two weeks ago and he would be ranking out as a top 10 play this week. Even with that recent missed cut he still ranks out as a top 15 in Stat Fit, and Recent Form. He is a quality lineup filler that I would be fine going out of my way to play.

Matt Fitzpatrick went through a slightly bad stretch in his golf game of golf this season, but he has come through on the other side of it finishing 19th, 1st, and 31st over his past 3 starts. He has produced well at the PGA, and the US Open last year, and has played well on Donald Ross course in the past. I think we are getting Fitzpatrick at such a cheap price this week.

Gary Woodland is a play that I ended up as the week progressed, and this is going to be due to his price, and that he does seem to be finding form. Woodland has made 6 straight cuts in a row on the PGA Tour with a few top-25 finishes. Woodland has strong comp course history as well. If you find yourself down this low looking for a quality play I belive that play is Woodland this week.

Takeaways:

JT had been struggling for a little bit in terms of giving us winning upside, and you could easily argue that is still the case this week. But he is a golfer coming in checking all of the boxes this week and ranks out as a top 10 play. He is a golfer that I like a lot, I just like other golfers around his price a little bit more.

From there we get Hideki who really I would just be targeting to get a strong likelihood of a made cut. Probably not a play that will overall help too much, but not a play that would hurt either.

Tommy Fleetwood is a golfer that seems to have found some form making the cut in his last 8 events, and overall ranking 20th in the field in recent form rank. He has all of the tools to produce this week, and I think that he will.

Niemann is now on the LIV Tour, but prior to that he was one of the best golfers on the PGA Tour, and his last two starts on the LIV Tour were solid starts. Now the verdict is still out on how we should properly value their results, but it is never bad to see a golfer to CONTINUE to play good golf. He ranks out as another solid lineup filler.

Adam Scott is another golfer that will most likely give us a made cut.

Takeaways:

From the Mid Exposure plays we get the Low Exposure plays or in other words going from safe plays that might lack upside to less-than-safe plays that have upside.

Cameron Young is a golfer that no one would be shocked to see finish top 10 this week. The biggest issue with him as a play this week is that his last two cuts on two were less than great, but at least he made the cut.

Take what I just wrote about Cameron Young and apply that to Max Homa, they are basically the exact same plays the only difference is that Homa is coming in off of a top 10 finish.

Keegan is a play that I do think will lack upside but I do think he will make the cut.

Talor Gooch has been a golfer that has played well on the LIV Tour as well winning two events in a row. Once again playing good golf is never a bad thing.

I like Denny Mccarthy's chances to make the cut, but he might lack the upside that we would want, at the same time he has been far too inconsistent to trust.

Lastly Hayden Buckley is surprisingly looking a quality play, where in a studs and duds build I would feel happy to end up on.

Takeaways:

Cameron Smith, Patrick Reed, and HV3 have been playing great golf on the LIV Tour as well, and because they are on the LIV Tour I think that they could come in lower owned than they really should be. All of them rank out well enough this week to consider them as plays considering their better recent form.

Thomas Detry choked away a victory last week (again) and I worry about him mentally and I think he is priced too high but I wouldn't be shocked to see a good week out him.

Si Wood Kim has struggled in majors like this, and just has terrible comp course history. That to me is the worry with him as a play.

Player Pool Breakdown:

Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week.

(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)

Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.

GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.

Cash: Core, High Exposure, Rose, Scott, JT, Hideki

GPP: Everyone Else

*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup

Obviously, we have a lot of great plays this week, so there are a lot of builds that you can end up. This week is another week that I will be playing on Fanduel as well because they have some very soft pricing. Basically, I can upgrade from Woodland on Fanduel.

Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \

*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)

Over Owned / Under Owned:

I guess the biggest worry with Gary Woodland is that he is pulling in as a golfer that we should not be rostering this week due to his ownership. Using ownership leverage this way will be the way that I go out using it this week, small one-off decisions as this week with it being a major I doubt we will see any highly rostered terrible play.