Jul 27, 202210 min
Overview/Recap
Another tournament in the "Midwest Swing" is upon us as we turn to the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Another tournament that is making its 4th start on the PGA Tour. The first 3 years did not disappoint as we had a Monday qualifier win in year 1, Bryson DeChambeau win two years ago, and had a painful playoff loss of Troy Merritt, and Joaquin Niemann to Cameron Davis last year. I say painful last year because Davis chipped in for eagle on the back nine to end up being tied with two outright bets Troy Merritt and Joaquin Niemann where Davis eventually beat both of them. Merritt was 100 to 1 to win that week as well adding onto the pain.
The good thing about having some success predicting the Rocket Mortgage Classic is that we know we have been right the past few years with what to look for so hopefully that will lead to some good results once again.
The Cheat Sheet is currently listed under the "Cheat Sheet".
Key Stats:
- Effective Scoring
- BOB
- Par 5 Scoring
- SG AP
- Greens Gained
This tournament is about scoring when you can, and you do that by just peppering the greens. The rough can play a little bit more difficult at times, but for the most part this tournament/course is not difficult and golfers should be able to manage to score on it.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2021, 2019, 2018, and 2017 course history.
H1 - Rocket Mortgage Classic 2021
H2 - Rocket Mortgage Classic 2020
H3 - Rocket Mortgage Classic 2019
H4 - NA 2018
We have only seen this course / tournament for 3 years now so we only have 3 years course history data to go off of.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
The tough part about this week is that we have a lot of quality "Low Tier" plays. This will make it hard to have true conviction on those plays, as a lot of them are great plays, and similar plays, thus it will make them harder to rank. Overall though I have liked the builds that I have made. Another big problem is that we have a lot of risk/reward plays on the top end where they have a great chance to top 10 and possibly win, but at the same time they could easily disappoint.
Weather:
Slight wind on Thursday, but for the most part weather will not be a huge factor as it sits right now.
*Note I will continue to attack the SD Slate with the AM tee times until the weather suggests that this is not the way to go.
BETTING:
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times for FRL betting until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
Cantlay 16/1
Kuchar 50/1
Denny 35/1
Clark 80/1
Vegas 65/1
Hubbard 50/1
Gligic 80/1
Outright Bets:
Cantlay 10/1
WIlly Z 12/1
Young 15/1
Homa 14/1
McNealy 25/1
Hubbard 50/1
Pendrith 60/1
Round 1 Matchup Bets (3 Balls)
Placement Bets:
Top 10 Bets:
Kirk +350
Stallings +500
Hubbard +500
Tarren +900
Top 20 Bets:
McCarthy +175
Hubbard +240
Top 40 Bets:
Clark +140
Gligic +150
Hubbard +100
Pendrith +110
HIGH-TIER PLAYS: ($9,000 AND UP)
Patrick Cantlay - $10,700 - Core Play:
The only worry with Cantlay this week as a play is that he has not made a start here in the last 3 years. Besides that he is an elite play. He has made the cut in his last 5 starts finishing 8th and 4th in his past 2 starts now. He is the 5th best stat fit in the field, and the 6th best specialist, overall ranking out as the best play this week. If you can afford to pay up for him I think that you should do it.
Will Zalatoris - $10,400 - Mid Exposure:
Willy Z to me is a little bit overpriced. He is coming in, in fine recent form ranking out top 5 in the field, but that is mostly due to his upside finishes, not his random missed cuts. He also finished 77th at this tournament last year, nothing elite there. This should be a tournament that fits his game, which is why I will have some of him, but overall I do not trust him as a play.
Cameron Young - $10,100 - Mid Exposure:
Cameron Young, and WIlly Z are basically the same plays, except Willy Z has been in better form, (slightly), and Young is a better stat fit. Really I think both of them have had "random" missed cuts mostly due to them being in contention a bunch, and not being able to get the job done and get the win. That can really get to them mentally, but the thing is they both will have a strong chance at winning this week if they bring their A game. Both of them are quality GPP plays.
Max Homa - $9,900 - Core Play:
Homa missed the cut in his last event, and this is one of those situations where I am sort of glad that he did. He had been playing some elite golf, in weeks where he didn't have his A game, or courses where he shouldn't play well he found way to make the cut. The missed cut came at the Open Championship, and being paired with Tiger, his missed cut was not terrible as well. He still ranks out top 5 in the field in recent form rank. He has made the cut twice at this event finishing 42n in the opening year, and 25th last year. He is the 2nd best stat fit, and he is just a clear-cut bounce-back play this week.
Adam Scott - $9,300 - Low Exposure:
Scott has been a very painful play this year because he has had these random blow-up holes, and this has mostly been due to just bad shots at bad times, and we do not know for sure that this is going to go away this week, but we do know that this course is a little forgiving. I do not see Scott having a blow-up hole this week, or at least that risk should be reduced. Scott is the 10th best stat fit, and ranks out in the 11th best recent form. Overall ranks out 13th in the field.
Keegan Bradley - $9,200 - Mid Exposure:
Keegan is an extremely interesting play, because he is coming in off of two missed cuts, but those missed cuts came overseas on two courses where you didn't exactly think he would play well on. Now back in the US I expect him to bounce back. If you take out those two starts, he has 6 top 12 finishes in his last 13 starts which is obviously really strong. Keegan has played well at this course finishing 14th, and 45th. He is a top 10 specialist, stat fit, and in recent form. He ranks out as the 3rd best play this week. To me he is a strong GPP play.
Kevin Kisner - $9,100 - Low Exposure:
Kisner is juiced up this week price-wise simply due to strong course history finishing 8th, 3rd, and 46th the past 3 years at the course. He had been in terrible form prior to his last 2 starts where he has finished 21st, and 6th. If he is rounding into form he is a fine play. He is certainly a risky play.
MID TIER PLAYS: ($8,900 - $8,000)
Denny McCarthy - $8,900 - Mid Exposure:
McCarthy is an interesting play this week. He has been in great form having 3 top 10 finishes in his last 4 starts. But in between that he had a missed cut. He also has went MC, and 21st at this course. Overall not a great stat fit, and not a great specialist, but he has been solid this whole season, and he does have my trust. I think he makes the cut, and continues his great recent form.
Maverick McNealy - $8,800 - Core Play:
Last week McNealy was a little bit of a letdown finishing 49th, In an off week I will take that. He has now made the cut in his past 4 starts on the PGA Tour finishing to 16 or better in the other 3 starts. He has played really well on this course finishing 21st, and 8th. He could be a better stat fit, and that is the worry with him as a play. But he still ranks out top 12 in the field, and at this price point he will be tough for me to pass up on.
Adam Hadwin - $8,400 - High Exposure:
Hadwin is a good enough play across the board this week as he has been in good enough recent form, but not great. He ranks top 30 in basically every metric, which this week is a good thing due to the field. He ranks out as the 15th best play this week. At this course he has went MC, and 4th.
Mark Hubbard - $8,000 - High Exposure:
Denny McCarthy and Mark Hubbard are basically the same plays to me, except Hubbard actually ranks out a little bit better as a play. Hubbard is a top 20 stat fit, the 8th best specialist, he is in the 8th best recent form. The only slight downside for Hubbard as a play is that he missed the cut at this event last year, the year before that he finished 12th. He is a strong play this week, and it would not shock me to see him in contention agian.
Other PIcks I like: Tringale, Henley
LOW TIER PLAYS: ($7,900 - $7,000)
Chris Kirk - $7,800 - High Exposure:
Kirk has made the cut in his last 6 starts so he is going to rank out pretty well in recent form rank, but they have not really been strong made cuts, his recent form average finish over the past 10 starts in only 43rd. That does include two top 10 finishes, in his last 6 starts. He has finished 12th, and 21st at this course. He is the 6th best stat fit, and overall ranks out top 10 in the 925 model. I like him a lot as a play this week.
Scott Stallings - $7,700 - High Exposure:
Stallings is a shockingly good play, and someone I could see in contention to win come Sunday. He has made the cut at this event in 3 straight tries with better finishes in each start. He is an ok stat fit, and even though his recent form is not that good he has shown some upside, with two top 10 finishes in his last 2 starts. He is a risk-reward play.
Joohyung Kim - $7,600 - Mid Exposure:
There's nothing too much more to him as a play other than the fact that he has made the cut in his past 4 starts on the PGA Tour showing that this is not too big of a stage for the young golfer. He could easily continue that again this week.
Taylor Pendrith - $7,500 - High Exposure:
I am being very bullish on Pendrith this week, and either he is going to be Adam Svensson or Adam Long for us this week. What I am getting at is that I am going to continue to roster Pendrith until he lets me down. He has made the cut in his past 5 starts with 3 straight top 15 finishes.
Wyndham Clark - $7,100 - Core Play: Clark is a core play to me in the sense that he is super cheap, and should really just be a free top 30 square or so. He has made the cut in his past 4 starts on tour. He is the 13th best stat fit, with no real worries in his game. He also finished 17th at this event in 2019, I really love him as a play at this price.
Callum Tarren - $7,100 - Mid Exposure: It is no surprise that people are jumping on the Tarren Train, due to his high upside nature. He is the same play that he has been for months, a golfer that if he limits or eliminates his bad round he could be in contention or win.
Michael Gligic - $7,000 - High Exposure: Gligic is ranking out as a golfer that is underpriced given his recent form of 5 straight made cuts with those finishing being: 16th, 31st, 21st, 10th, and 40th. The signs point to Gligic being focused on the playoffs and securing that PGA Tour card. Gligic has made one cut and missed one cut at this event.
Other Picks I like: Steele, Merritt, Kuchar, Gotterup, Palmer, Vegas, Svennson, Dahmen, Smotherman
VALUE TIER PLAYS: ($6,900 - $6,000)
The low tier has a lot of good enough plays this week. Chesson Hadley has had 3 top 10 finishes in his last 8 starts but has been a little bit too streaky to trust. Tyler Duncan is popping a decent amount, and I expect him to be right around a made cut once again this week. Kelly Kraft has been popping enough lately, and to me it would not be shocking to see him make the cut again this week. Yul Noh keeps seeing his price decrease even though he keeps making cuts. I am not sure why he is this cheap after making 5 straight cuts in a row. The data has him at 50% chance to make the cut which for a min pirced value is elite.
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Cantlay, Homa, Clark, Hadwin, Hubbard, Kirk, Gligic
GPP: Tarren, Stallings, Young, Will Z, Keegan, Svensson
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
Lineup Process:
This would be my ideal build this week, but it is $100 off. A simiple switch would be to just go down from Clark to Gligic to make the lineup work.The second build I thought I would share because it shows kind of what you can do by punting to Yul-Noh and hoping to get a made cut. The lineup is simply good enough.
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.
Over Owned / Under Owned;
I really do not see the need for us to go out of our way to play any of the golfers that are firmly within the "Red" for the golfers that are over-owned. Only golfer where I see a potential huge edge with ownership would be Ryan Palmer. He is cheap enough to the point where he won't hurt you too much, and he is ranking out better than some of the golfers at higher ownerships at the same price.