PGA DFS: Sanderson Farms Championship 2022 (Members Writeup)

Sanderson Farms Championship Preview

*Adding in Justin Lower as a strong Mid Exposure play. Good recent form*

Overview/Recap

I am keeping the same breakdown of why early season DFS can be difficult. There is just a high variance to it.

1) A lot of golfers have not played since the playoffs started. (Which is why they are playing in this event to hopefully get some FedEx Cup points early.) More time off = more variance.

2) Golfers that played in the FedEx Cup playoffs went through 3 straight weeks of different goals, some just trying to move on, some trying to secure a PGA Tour Card, some trying to win it all. After 3 straight event of mental grinding it is not a surprise to see someone struggle to be mentally sharp again in the first event back.

3) A lot of "new" golfers on the tour season, whether that being rookie golfers or KFT grads. A lot of the KFT guys had been playing some great golf leading into this event, but mentally where will they be will they be content with making the Tour or will they have the mental strength to continue to play well.

As you can see we have a lot more pieces to the puzzle this week compared to end-of-season golf when it is just, great course history, great stat fit, and great form - a great play. This is why we see a lot more early season variance.

(Note the member's version of this writeup will be completed on Tuesday Evening)

Key Stats:

- Effective Scoring

- Ball Striking

- B2B Ratio

- Par 5 Scoring

- SG Total

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Red

Early season PGA DFS is higher variance. We typically see very low 6/6 weeks, like we did in the first week. If you do get 6/6 across the cut line you can however have a huge week.

Weather:

Weather report is telling us that we should have a pretty nice weekend.

*Note I will continue to attack the SD Slate with the AM tee times until the weather suggests that this is not the way to go.

First Round Leader

AM Tee Times

I will be targeting AM Tee Times for FRL betting until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)

Denny McCarthy 35/1

Seamus Power 50/1

Adam Long 65/1

JT Poston 35/1

Taylor Moore 55/1

Patton Kizzire 130/1

Scott Stallings 45/1

Outright Bets:

Theegala 20/1

Poston 16/1

Montgomery 35/1

Stallings 30/1

Grillo 40/1

Jaeger 80/1

Round 1 Matchup Bets (3 Balls)

Placement Bets:

Top 10 Bets:

Theegala

Stallings

Top 20 Bets:

Jaeger

Montgomery

Poston

Sahith Theegala - High Exposure Play + Outright Bet:

Theegala has been a player that seems like they are due for a win, and although he ranks out as the 25th best stat fit he is still a play that I think can be in contention this week. He missed the cut in his first attempt here in 2021 but finished 8th place last season. He has been in strong recent form finishing 6th place last week, a somewhat bad finish at the Tour Championship and then two straight top 15 finishes. In a tournament that is a birdie fest it makes sense to target Sahith.

J.T. Poston - $10,200 - High Exposure + Outright Bet:

Poston missed the cut at this event last year, but that was during a terrible stretch of golf that he was going through. Prior to that he finished 3rd, 11th, and 54th. He is ranking out top 15 or better in all the key stats that we are looking at so it is no shock that he is a top 5 stat fit this week. In the field he ranks out really well in recent form wise making the cut in his last 5 starts overall ranking out top 5 in recent form. It would not be shocking to see posted in contention come Sunday.

Taylor Montgomery - Mid Exposure - $9,600:

Taylor Montgomery had a strong finish/season last year on the KFT, and that continued on the PGA Tour last week finishing 3rd. He does not rank out too well in the model because we do not have that much data on him from the PGA Tour but I could see him having another strong week this week. He is someone I could see myself betting on as well.

Scott Stallings - Core Play + Outright Bet - $9,500:

Scott Stallings is my favorite play, and the data also views him that way. Stallings missed the cut at this event last year but prior to that finished 6th, 28th, and 39th. Stallings is the top stat fit this week ranking top 8 or better in all the key stats that we are looking at this week. Stallings has been someone has had some close calls to some victories, even just two starts ago where he finished 2nd. He should find himself in contention on Sunday, although in early season pga dfs nothing is guaranteed.

EmilianO Grillo - Core Play - $9,200:

Grillo is the only play this week that the tag sees as a Core Play. He has made the cut at this event 3 straight years. He has also made 4 straight cuts in a row on the PGA Tour and just 4 events ago he finished runner-up. He is a top 10 stat fit as well ranking top 15 or better in all the key stats that we are looking at this week. Overall Grillo ranks out top 10 in the 925 Model. My biggest worry with Grillo this week is that he knows he is getting talked up, and that is typically when he sucks.

Harris English - Low Exposure - $8,600:

English is coming in with a strong finish to start the 2023 PGA Season finishing 9th at the Fortinet Championship. Prior to that he had been playing poorly, and that would be the worry with English is that overally he ranks out 60th in Recent Form rank. The question I find myself asking with English, is: Is he a player that "flipped the switch mentally" in the new season after a slost season last year. English is a top 10 stat fit, and 10 top in course history, so it would not bee too shocking to see him have a strong week, but it is a known risky play at this price point.

Taylor Moore - Core Play + Outright Bet - $8,500:

Taylor Moore is one of the few "safe" plays we have that is not priced above 9K. Moore finished 17th at this event last year, He is a top 10 stat fit, and have been in great recent form making the cut in his last 9 starts. Really we have no reason to believe that he is going to struggle this week, and thus I think that he is a strong play.

Other Picks I like:

Chris Kirk, Wyndham Clark

Andrew Putnam - $7,700 - Mid Exposure:

Putnam is an interesting play this week, as compared to the other players around him he is an easy play, but at the same time it does feel weird to trust Andrew Putnman. That is the week that we have though. Putnman is in the 13h best recent form in the field and ranks out top 25 in the model. He has a missed cut and a 53rd-place finish. I would like the course history to be better.

Justin Suh - $7,700 - Low Exposure:

Suh had a better year than Taylor Montgomery had on the KFT last year, yet one event into the season Suh missed the cut and Montgomery found himself in contention. The thing with Suh is that he was coming in off of a victory at the KFT Championship. That is why I am giving him a pass. If we do that he should be a very strong play. Basically if you love Montgomery you should also like Suh

Adam Svensson - $7,400 - Low Exposure:

Svennson is in the 7the best recent form in the field, and that is something that I am willing to chase in this field. He is a top 10 specialist as well. He does not have good course history how ever missing the cut in his last two attempts and finishing 39th 4 years ago.

Mark Hubbard - $7,400 - Low Exposure:

Hubbard has two missed cuts in a row at the event in 2021 and 2020 which is not what we want. On top of that he is not an elite stat fit only ranking out 36th in the field. THe good news is that he is a top 10 Specialist and top 12 in recent form. Overall he ranks out 26th in the field this week, and he is someone I could see getting a top 25 finish. At this price that is something that I like.

Russell Knox - $7,300 - Low Exposure:

Knox is another one of those players that I think will make the cut. He has made 3 out of his past 4 cuts on tour, and has a made cut and a missed cut at this event. He doesn't rank out well in any particular metric but is not bad either.

Davis Thompson - $7,200 - Mid Exposure: One thing I added to the 925 model was a data check for anyone with a small sample size. A golfer like Thompson would fall under that. You will see that he is a top 16 Specialist, and in Course History having finished 35th last year. He is also top 41 in Stat Fit, and Recent Form Rank. He is coming off of a top 10 finish. He is a play that I like a lot at this price point.

Stephan Jaeger - $7,200 - High Exposure: It is certainly tough not to love Jaeger at this price point. Jaeger has finished 26th, MC, and 14th at this event. He is not the best stat fit ranking out 62nd in the field, and that would be the reason he misses the cut. But Jaeger has played well in his last 4 starts making the cut in 4 straight and has a 13th, and a 4th place finish in that stretch. At this price point I think he is a strong option.

Lee Hodges - $7,000 - Low Exposure: Hodges in an interesting play over the last ten weeks he ranks out top 10 in B2B ratio, and Ball Striking. He also ranks out top 26 or better in SGT2G, and SG Total. Overall ranks out top 15 in stat fit. He is also top 20 in recent form rank. He did miss the cut in his last event but that was a 73rd place finish so not a bad missed cut.

The problem I have this week is that I do want to go studs and duds but we just do not have quality studs this week. We have a lot of players that could, and probably should make the cut but it is hard to get behind just one player for any particular reason.

Callum Tarren - $6,900 - Low Exposure: Tarren is an interesting play, even after two terrible starts in a row he ranks out top 30 in the field in recent form rank. He is someone that was sort of just happy to be a part of the playoffs last year, and I think that he will have a much better season this year. Tarren is a top 10 stat fit, which is the appeal. Especially since a lot of his good events have been in events that are easier scoring events. It would not be shocking to see him have a strong week.

Adam Schenk - $6,700 - Low Exposure: I will say there is a lot of name value that goes into this play which does sound strange to say, but Schenk is someone that should be able to make the cut this week. He made the cut at this event 3 of the last 4 tries. The problem is that one missed cut came last year. He has made the cut in his past two starts on the PGA Tour. He is someone I think should be able to make the cut and that is what we want at this price point.

Michael Kim - $6,700 - Low Exposure: Kim is a bad version of Montgomery, and Justin Suh. He is someone that played well on the KFT last year, and I think will have a better week this week. He is not someone that is a lock to make the cut, however. He is a GPP only play.

Other Picks I like: Harrison Endycott (good start in his first PGA tour start)

Player Pool Breakdown:

Player Pool is rank in order

(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)

Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.

GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.

Cash: Stallings, Grillo, Moore, Jaeger, Schenk, Putnam

GPP: Suh, Poston, Hodges, Tarren, Svennson, English, Montgomery

*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)

As you will see the lineup process is not sexy, and the 6/6 is going to be extremely low this week. This is a good example of why I see it as a GPP only week.

Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \

*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)

Over Owned / Under Owned:

Apologies but the company that I get ownership through does not have projected ownership available for this tournament. Should be ready to go once the full season is here and in full swing.

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