PGA DFS: Sentry Tournament of Champions (Members Writeup)

The Sentry Tournament of Champions is always a "fun" tournament to ease us back into the PGA DFS season. With that we look to continue what was a great start to the 2023 season during the fall where every week it seemed like a member had a chance to win a GPP. The only problem with the Fall Swing was that not enough people were targeting it. I am hoping that the updates I have made to the data/website will continue to prove to be very worthwhile.

Below you will see an update that I have already made to the 925 CheAt Sheet which will be replacing the "PGA DFS" Dashboard from last season.

925 Sponsors / Free Money

As 925 has grown we have more Sponsors with Promo Codes that you can take advantage of.

StatHero - Set a lineup against there's - If it wins you win - Simple easy and direct.

925 PGA DFS UPDATES:

Key Stats:

- Effective Scoring

- BOB%

- SG AP

- SG TTL

- Greens Gained

We were very successful this fall while not changing the key stats thus I will not be changing it. If I were to I could add in an emphasis on 200+ irons, and SG OT as those would be the next most important stats to look at. What I want are golfers that can score, and golfers that will consistently set themselves up to score.

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Red

With this being the first event back for a lot of golfers in a while that leads to more variance, as the more amount of times a golfer has off being their starters that more their finishes vary. Add on the fact that this is a no-cut event and it could end up being a high-variance event. I will say the lineup that I was able to end up on this week is one that I like. You will see this at the end of the build.

Weather:

This week the weather does not look like it will be too penalizing, as it has been in years past, this should result in a lot of birdies being scored. The winning score last year was extremely low due to weather conditions like this, and thus I expect the same thing again this year.

First Round Leader

AM Tee Times

I will be targeting AM Tee Times for FRL betting until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)

We have 3 golfers that are T3 in FRL leader rank being Scottie, Cantlay, and Xander. All are fine bets to have the FRL if you choose to go that route. I will be going with:

Jon Rahm 12/1

Justin Thomas 14/1

Outright Bets:

Rahm 6/1

Cantlay 10/1

Xander 11/1

Round 1 Matchup Bets (3 Balls)

"Core Play" I see 3 Golfers this week as true Core Plays, especially since you can fit them into your builds easily.

Takeaways:

Rahm, Cantlay, and Xander are all ranking out as the top 3 plays this week I will be treating them as such especially given the soft price points for them. All three have pretty elite course history ranking out top 6 or better in the field. Rahm has 4 straight top 10 finishes, while Cantlay and Xander have 2 top 5 finishes. Another bonus is that they all rank out top 3 in recent form rank and specialist ranking.

Really all signs point to these three golfers being elite options this week, and it is tough to pass up on being able to roster all three of them in the same build.

Takeaways:

These 4 golfers I love because they provide some salary relief while also providing some great upside.

Homa I like because he should be a safe play I feel like he is a play that might not overly help you but more likely than not he is not going to be a player that hurts you. If he is on his game which I think he will be he has the upside to have a top 10 finish.

Sungjae I was very close to making a Core Play just given his results in Hawaii, and given how well he ranks out this week. Sungjae has two top-10 finishes here, and ranks out top 6 or better in all the key metrics we are looking at. What held me back slightly with Sungjae were the last two starts we saw from him where he finished 34th, and 29th. Given the price tag he should be a safe play with an upside.

Aaron Wise is looking like a strong price point play. I like the fact that he does have some sort of course history even if it was a bad finish 4 years ago finishing 27th, it was a course experience. That should help him to be able to pay off this price point.

Power is a play that we would be on much more if it wasn't for the big gap in time off, because he had finished 5th, 3rd, and 1st over his past 3 starts which is obviously very elite. Power also had a 15th place finish at his event last year Given his price tag, and the upside he presents he will most likely be my 4th highest owned golfer this week.

Takeaways:

All these golfers are pretty strong plays to me given their price points. They just all have some issues.

For Fitzpatrick, it is the fact that he does not have a start here over the past 4 years. We did see Harris English win two years ago without Course History so it would not be shocking to see a golfer like Fitzpatrick win, but at the same time I am prioritizing having a start at this tournament which is why I am knocking him slightly. He is still looking like he is going to be a strong play.

Brian Harman to me is a better version of Seamus Power as a play this week. The issue with Harman is simply the price point if we were getting him at 1K cheaper he would be an elite play, and a play that I feel like we would be forced into making. Harman has had a great fall swing an that will most likely continue into this event. The question is upside. I do think he has top 10 upside and that is why I am using him this week, but maybe he treats this as more of a vacation rather than a tournament.

Poston is a play that I have liked more and more as the week has gone on. Poston has course history finishing 11th at this event in 2020. He is also aa top 20 stat fit ranking out 3rd in Greens Gained. This tells me that he should be able to pepper the greens and give himself plenty of chances to make putts. As long as he is on his approach game he should be a golfer that pays off this price point.

Trey Mullinax is much more of an educated risky play, because on the PGA Tour Mullinax has been pretty bad. On the KFT however, he had an elite season. Mullinax is coming into this event with a 4th place finish. He is someone that if his game is on I could see being a top-10 finisher. To me Mullinax is a play that Ilke is because of his upside, and because of his price point. Given the nature of this event, it will not hurt you too much if he finishes top 25 which would out kick his price point.

Takeaways:

The next four are all plays I am fine playing, I just like other options around them slightly better.

Starting with Scottie and JT are both elite plays, and plays that you can play. I personally like Rahm, Cantlay, and Xander more but at the same time it is a small margin, especially when comparing them against Scottie.

With JT it is the course history that is extremely tough to pass up on. JT has not finished worse than 5th in his last 4 starts here. That is something you simply cannot ignore.

Scott Stallings is another one of those strong GPP plays just given the upside that he can present. I feel like the end of last season and the start of this season started to become a grind for Stallings who simply had to play a lot of golf to get to this point that he is at. He was playing great golf for a good portion of last season, and there's a chance the time off will really benefit him. I do not want to miss out on that.

JJ Spaun is simply a play that I think will outproduce his price point.

Player Pool Breakdown:

Player Pool is rank in order

(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)

Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.

GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.

Cash: Cash and GPPs are all the same this week. I am going more studs and duds in cash this week. Where as GPPs I might mix and match a little bit more.

GPP: Homa,, Harman, Fitpztrick

*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)

Two builds that I like this week are listed below. The approach was "Studs" and "Duds"

Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \

*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)

You will see updates to the Ownership Leverage Section. Leverage % Gained is basically just how under overvalued they are. Leverage Rank is still what it always was just telling you simply who is over-owned or under-owned. Return Value Finishing Position is how they are being treated by the public, basically with their ownership the public is saying the golfer will finish that way. The color scale on that section will show how that matches up with how they are projected to do. Leverage Tag states how a player is looking that week. You can use this on the Custom Model if you would likee.

We are seeing a lot of the ownership being spread out among the top play thus a lot of the top plays are going to be under valued. We saw this a lot last year in these type of events. With this you can gain a lot of leverage on the field simply by playing great plays.

Hideki, Burns, Scott and Sahith are all players that are slightly over-owned. I see no need to play them.

Over Owned / Under Owned: