Feb 15, 202211 min
Overview/Recap
Last week was a great start to the "predictable" portion of the season. Pretty much every single possible way you could have started your builds last week led you to a profitable lineup approach. The only issue with last week is the players that were Low, and Lower Exposure plays really played into the hit or miss nature of that. With multiple missed cuts on the number, and multiple guys finishing top 10. The missed cuts are what kept it from being a huge week. All in all, if we continue to have weeks like that we are going to have some massive weeks when a few of those small difference makers make the cut. The interesting thing about last week is that two of the mid exposure plays Charles Howell, and Viktor Hovland really missed the cut due to one poor swing. Hovland on the back nine on Friday hits one into the water forcing him to have to go for the green resulting in another water ball. Howell hit his worst drive of the year, wasn't unable to take a drop, and had to tee off again. Just put both of those tee shots in play and I think they both make the cut. Which to me is more annoying than Seamus Power finally missing a cut (on the number).
This week we get the Genesis Invitational (Formely the Genesis Open), and the field is loaded this week, this field/event is basically going to play out like the Masters. A reduced field, with soft pricing that makes any build easy to make. There is no real reason to go risky at all this week. Just make the correct plays, and hopefully, they don't burn us. I really do not expect there to be any "Chalk" this week because there is no reason for there to be chalk, this is due to the quality of the field. This event does typically play "Hard" which means that the cut line is over par on average. Typically speaking this makes DFS much easier to predict, because harder scoring events tend to penalize bad shots more, and reward the golfers that are truly on their game.
Overall I think the tough part about this week is the "fomo" factor. (Which you will see with the low and lower exposure plays). We have so many great plays this week that it is going to be hard to properly rank the golfers, sure the exposures will most likely be correct but the ranks within that are going to be difficult, it shouldn't be a big difference-maker but last week is a good example of how it could be. Last week had I ranked Harman/Lee over Howell or Laird over Hahn it is a significantly better week. Basically just hoping that isn't the case this week.
(Main) Course Preview:
Key Stats:
- Effective Scoring
- Strokes Gained Approach
- B2B / BA
- SG Off Tee
- Long Iron Accuracy
- Ball Striking
*Note SG Total, and SGT2G are great blanket stats, but I like to look at the most specific stats within those stats.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2021, 2020, 2019, and 2018 course history.
LOCAL TIES:
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Like I said earlier this week should be an easier week with how "easy" it is to make a quality build. For me, I will be playing this week safe, and focus on making a few lineups that are going to cash rather than focusing on lineups that have "upside" to take down a GPP. You can make a great build just from the mid-tier range alone that should easily get you 4/6 across the cut line with at least two top 15 finishes. That is a lineup approach that I will be going with a decent amount. That is due to the Low/Value Tier not being elite, and the 11K, 10K plays being the same plays as some of the 9K and 8K plays. (The difference being winning upside).
BETTING:
Last week was both painful and a lot of fun. I think it serves as a good reminder that the bets below are the best bets for that week in general. You can choose to bet them outright knowing that a few of the players below are going to give us a chance at an outright. On the year 1/3 of the, outrights have finished top 10, and half have finished top 20.
My problem this week with the betting card is that some of the outright bets that I like have already won this season. Multiple Tour Winners in a season is rare. Thus I do not want to chase that too much but they really are strong golfers this week. Could just do a top 20 bet on them.
As always these are the players that stand out with upside. Last year the betting card somewhat dominated in terms of "Cash Out" early opportunities. Basically, players that won, had the lead heading into the back nine, or finished 2nd. This finished over 50% on the season. That being said you could have just used the players listed to bet top 5s, 10s, 20s, 40s, and First Round Leader etc. To have had a profitable betting year.
Xander - 22/1
Fitzpatrick - 35/1
Henley - 40/1
Goch - 40/1
Leishman - 50/1
Cantlay - 10/1
Smith - 22/1
Hideki - 18/1
HIGH TIER PLAYS: ($9,000 AND UP)
I do not feel the need to write up specifically Jon Rahm, and Patrick Cantlay this week. It is pretty obvious that they are the best plays this week, and that is why they are priced that way. The thing is I might make the High Exposure Plays this week simply due to their price point, and due to the quality of field that we have. Having them as Core Plays could actually hinder the chances to cash. Whereas in previous weeks their likelihood to top 10 was a safety blanket.
Justin Thomas - $10,700 - Low Exposure: JT is getting knocked this week due to the fact that he has missed two straight cuts in a row at this course, that he is an elite play, and that is why I think we still need to roster him a little. His other starts here in the last two years have both been top 10 finishes. In all the other key metrics that we look at, he ranks top 10. So it certainly would not be shocking to see him be in contention on Sunday, but at the same time, it would not be shocking to see him not do as well as others in this price point range.
Collin Morikawa - $10,400 - Low Exposure: Morikawa is the 4th best stat fit in the field, and he really is top-notch in the most significant stats this week. He ranking top 14 or better in Long Iron Accuracy, Ball Strikings, SGAP, and B2B ratio. Morikawa has been playing well making the cut in his last 5 starts. The worry with him is that he strangely has not played well here thus far. Now he has still made the cut, but this is a course where you need to have course knowledge, and it seems like thus far he might not have that figured out. For me he is just more of a risky play just due to his price point. Personally, I think he makes more sense as an outright bet rather than a DFS play.
Dustin Johnson - $10,200 - Mid Exposure: Like JT, and Morikawa I do feel like DJ is priced up a little bit too much this week. But it is his course history that I really like. Over his past 4 starts here he has an average finish of 10th. He ranks top 5 in all the key metrics that we are looking at this week except for recent form where he ranks 10th.
Xander Schauffele - $9,900 - High Exposure: I would typically make Xander a core play with how good of a play he is, but last week he was the top golfer in the field T2G, but was unable to convert the W. The question is what will that do to him mentally? I think that he will be fine but I will knock him slightly. Xander has an average finish of 15th at this course over the past 4 years. He ranks top 10 in all the key metrics that we are looking at this week overall ranking out as a top 5 pick.
Hideki Matsuyama - $9,300 - High Exposure: Hideki has been playing some great golf lately with an : 8th, 30th, 1st, 13th, and 1st. With that it comes as no shock that he is a top 5 stat fit this week ranking top 10 in 4 of the key stats. Hideki was missed the cut here last year by prior to that he had two top 10 finishes in a row. He should be a solid safe play at this price point.
Cameron Smith - $9,100 - Mid Exposure: Cam Smith is coming in off of a missed cut, but I am not really worried about that missed cut because prior to that missed cut he had just notched a victory. We always worry about a golfer not being able to grind out a week after a win, and it seems like that was the case for Smith. Smith other than that had 5 starts with all of them being top 15 or better finishes. Smith at this course has two top 10 finishes, a missed cut, and a 46th place finish. Overall he is a pretty elite play, especially at this price point.
*Other Picks I like: Rory, Hovland
MID TIER PLAYS: ($8,900 - $8,000)
The lower-priced players in the mid-tier are truly great plays this week, and I will be rostering a lot of them this week, that is where a majority of my builds will be made this week.
Matthew Fitzpatrick - $8,100 - Core Play: Fitzpatrick is a pretty interesting play to me this week. He ranks 90th or worse in 3 key stats this week, but in SG AP, and Effective Scoring he ranks top 20. Overall ranking out as a top 40 stat fit. Now other than that he is an elite play. He has finished 5th, and 30th at this course in the past two years. He has finished T12 or better in his last 3 starts. He ranks out at a top 12 pick this week, and he is looking like someone that could be in contention to win on Sunday.
Talor Gooch - $8,000 - Core Play: Now with Fitzpatrick, if he somehow struggles we will most likely look back at his stat fit rank. With Gooch there is nothing to suggest that he is going to struggle. Sure he missed a cut at the Amex 3 events ago but that was a 3-course rotation, and he got the bad course draw. Other than that Gooch has made the cut in 10 out of his past 11 events. He has finished 12th, 10th, and 20th at this event in his past 3 starts. He is top 35 or better in all the key stats that we are looking at this week. I could also see Gooch in contention to win on Sunday.
*Other Picks I like: Sungjae, Homa, Willy Z, and Scott
LOW TIER PLAYS: ($7,900 - $7,000)
Marc Leishman - $7,900 - Core Play: Marc Leishman has been playing some great golf this season, and really over the past year. He has been in contention to win a bunch already this season, and I expect him to be there again. He is coming in off of a bad week putting at the Farmers so somewhat naturally I expect him to have a better week putting. If he does he should be able to have a top 10 finish. Leishman is a top 10 stat fit, and is top 12 in recent form. Where he is getting knocked is his course history. Now he has made three straight cuts in a row here, with a top 10 finish. The start prior to that was a missed cut. I think he will be a great play this week.
Russell Henley - $7,900 - High Exposure: The price point for Henley is extremely appealing to me this week as he should not be this cheap. He is in the 6th best recent form out of anyone in the field. He has made the cut here in three straight years. He is also a top 10 stat fit in the field, ranking top 15 or better in all but one of the key stats. The only issue with Henley is kind of the issue that happens with a golfer like Glover. When you seemingly have no reason to fade them that is the reason to fade him. Which I will not be doing this week. Let's go HENLEY!
Luke List - $7,400 - Mid Exposure: List somewhat struggled last week after winning in the event prior. He really has been putting together a great season with 4 top 20 finishes in 7 starts. List ranks out as a top 20 stat fit. He has made the cut in 3 out of 4 starts at this course with all of the made cuts being top 30 finishes. He should be in for another great week this week, and this is sort of a strange price point.
Lanto Griffin - $7,200 - Mid Exposure: Lanto Griffin is a great value this week as he has made the cut here the last two years. He has also been in strong recent form making the cut in his last 7 starts on tour. Over the past year, he has had 25 starts and has only missed the cut in 6 events. He should be in for another made cut this week. If he does not it will be because of his stat fit where he ranks 37th in the field.
Other Picks I like: Niemann, Power, Kokrak, Conners, Tringale, C Bez, McNeally, Hadwin and Casey
VALUE TIER PLAYS: ($6,900 - $6,000)
KH Lee - $6,900 - Lower Exposure: KH Lee is really going through a great stretch of golf making the cut in his past 7 starts. He is a decent stat fit as well ranking top 40 in the field. For a value play that is going to be tough to beat, and although I do not think we have to go this low if you have to he is a good option.
Cameron Young - $6,700 - Lower Exposure: Just can't quit this guy. He has been playing such good golf, and he really isn't that far off from winning an event. He already finished 2nd this season, and had a good chance to win 3 events ago right before he realized he had a chance to win, and then he choked hard. Still it would not be shocking to see him make the cut again this week.
Sebastian Munoz - $6,700 - Lower Exposure: Munoz has missed the cut in 2 events out of his past 6 starts. Those 4 made cuts were a 23rd, 39th, 3rd, and 4th place finish. The upside is there for him to have a good week again.
Other Picks I like: Buckley, Laird, Rodgers, and Lipsky
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Cantlay, Rahm, Leishman, Gooch, Fitzpatrick, Scott, Sungjae, Xander, List, Lanto
GPP: Hideki, Niemann, Smith, DJ, Rory, Morikawa, Young, JT
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
Lineup Process:
Below is the lineup process that I like the most this week, just look at the average model rank of this build it is absolutely great. One thing that you could adjust however is by not going Adam Scott. I know I didn't specifically call him about but he does seem like he is going to make the cut here which is why I would use him for a main but to give myself a stronger chance at 6/6. You could switch him out, and thus Xanmder out as well to pay up for Cantlay, or really any other high tier play and be setting yourself up well. In GPPs I will be switching off of all these golfers one by one to ensure that I am giving myself a good chance at 6/6.