PGA DFS: The RSM Classic 2022-2023 (Members Writeup)

The RSM Classic is typically a fun tournament for DFS and betting as it is a true full tournament field event. This year however it is looking like it could be the worst of the fall events thus far this season. This is the first time since making the "Data Tag" that we do not have single golfer ranking out as a Core Play, and with the WD of Tony Finau we only have 5 golfers ranking out as High Exposure plays. This is a sign that this could be a high-variance week.

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StatHero - Set a lineup against there's - If it wins you win - Simple easy and direct.

Overview/Recap

Last week was another solid week for anyone that did not end up on Sam Burns. As expected Tony Finau bounced back strong, and my only regret with him as a play was not making him an outright bet. It pretty easy to spot that he was going to have a good week.

I also want to call out some slight updates I made:

- "Tournament Log" : This was added to the 925 PGA Cheat Sheet.

- Recent Form: Over the past 3 months I saw that recent form after 6 starts fell off. I have moved recent form to look at the past 6 starts, a golfer has made, while providing an great emphasis on their last start.

- Writeup: Instead of breaking down the writeup by each Tier I instead am going to break it down by a screenshot of who I have selected by: Core Plays, High Exposure, Mid Exposure, Low Exposure, and Fades. I will writeup why below that section. This is hopefully to give you guys a quicker easier view of what is relevant.

Key Stats:

- Effective Scoring

- BOB%

- SG AP

- SG TTL

- Greens Gained

This week we see that just hitting greens is key focusing on Greens Gained as well as SG AP is what we should be looking at.

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Red

Not a big fan of the lineup paths this week, as well as the field. This should mean that the six for six % is going to be lower. As always for weeks like this where it is tougher to make a quality build, if we ended up finding the correct combination and get 6/6 across the cut line you will find yourself in a great spot come Sunday.

Weather:

Finally no big worries with the weather this week.

First Round Leader

AM Tee Times

I will be targeting AM Tee Times for FRL betting until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)

TBD

Outright Bets:

Top 8 Players + Merritt

Round 1 Matchup Bets (3 Balls)

"Core Play" is a loose term this week. Basically these are just going to be the golfers that I am going out of my way to most to play, rather than golfers I think are locks to make the cut, and outproduce their price point.

Takeaways:

You know it is an ugly week when Brian Harman is the top golfer in the field but it is warranted for the most part. He has 3 out of 4 made cuts at this tournament, he is a Georgie boy, who typically plays well here, and at these types of courses which is why he ranks out as a top 12 specialist. He also has been in great form making 8 straight cuts and coming in off of a second-place finish. Overall he is a quality play especially given the field.

The next golfers are all very "strong" price point plays. All 4 of these golfers are on a made-cut streak which I love to see, and all of them have at least a good finish at this tournament.

Patrick Rodgers is coming in making 6 straight cuts in a row and consistently doing better than expected including last week when he finished 16th. He has a 2nd place finish here and two missed cuts. He overall is a strong stat fit, and is someone I think will make the cut. You guys know I like to play golfers until they let me down, and even though this is the perfect let down week I will be playing them.

Hughes has followed up his win with a 23rd and 16th place finish and has now made 6 straight cuts in a row. He has missed two cuts here but also finished 2nd at this event last year. He is not an elite stat fit, and overall could be a better play but I see him having a good week.

Andrew Putnam is the ideal golfer for a track like this because he is a top 8 Specialist and ranks out as a top 20 stat fit. He has been in great form thus far, doing well enough on tracks that he shouldn't be doing well at. This seems like a great week for everything to come together for Andrew Putnam.

Scott Stallings has been trending in the wrong direction for his last two starts but is someone that could certainly do well here. He has made the cut here 3 straight years, and is the 2nd best stat fit in the field. (the last two that ranked out as the second-best stat fit Henley, and Finau won, so that means lock in Stallings, right?). It is pretty clear that he is too cheap this week, but if he is chalk that is chalk I will eat at this price point. The worry is the form going in the wrong way, what you love is the price point from an elite play.

Takeaways:

Seamus Power was another one of those golfers that had a great finish coming off of his win, and has now finished 3rd, and 1st. He finished 4th this event last year and is a top 5 stat fit. Really it would not be at all shocking to see Power in contention once again.

Tom Hoge is tough for me because he is coming in off of that "Random" missed cut on the number, but somewhat like Finau last week I think Hoge could easily bounce back this week. He finished 4th at this event last year, and ranks out top 10 or better in 3 of the key stats that we are looking at.

Montgomery finally had an off week but he was still able to make the cut. He is in the 3rd best recent form in the field and is someone that can easily have a great week.

Wyndham Clark is a very strong price point play this week. He has went 3 for 3 in made cuts at this tournament. He is a strong Specialist as well. He is also coming in off of 3 straight-made cuts with all of them being top-30 finishes. It would not be shocking to see Clark put it all together this week and get a win.

Alex Smalley is another one of those golfers I think I will continue to ride until they let me down. He was a staple for us last week, and could easily be again this week. He is coming in off of a 4th and 11th place finish while not showing a weakness in his game recently that would suggest he would miss the cut. The only worry is his missed cut at this event last year.

Aaron Rai is coming in off of a 7th-place finish, and even though the form might not completely say it he has been playing some great golf recently. He is someone you could argue is just a GPP play though.

Ben Griffin is purely a price point GPP only plays this week. He has made 5 straight cuts in a row with a 16tth, and a 5th place finishes mixed in there. Based on the small sample size we have on him he is the 2nd best Specialist in the field.

Takeaways:

The Mid Exposure plays are basically the best of the rest before we get a drop-off, and actually, you could argue that any one of these golfers would make for strong outright bets. Starting with Dahmen that is the most simple, he has made 3 out of 4 cuts here. He is coming in making 5 straight cuts, including 3 straight top-16 finishes. It would not be shocking to see him in contention again.

JJ Spaun is basically the same play as Dahmen just slightly worse upside finishes, and a worse stat fit, and a Specialist, but that is why he is priced 1,400 cheaper than Dahmen. He is someone I like a lot on this slate, and have closed a lot of my builds out with him.

For a second I thought we might get Will Gordon as a winner last week, but that did not happen. He is someone that is having a great start to the season, making 6 straight cuts, and getting a feel for what being on top of the leaderboard is all about. Gordon has played this course twice finishing MC, and 10th 2 and 3 years ago. He is a strong GPP play this week.

Troy Money Merritt is going to win this week. If you guys follow me for Football you know I have been Gung-Ho on Christian Watson for a while, and he finally broke free. Well that is my feeling for Merritt this week. He has good course history making 3 out of 4 cuts with all of those made cuts being top 30 or better finishes. He is a good enough stat fit, and his most recent start was a 3rd place finish. All in all it just would not be shocking to see him in contention

Takeaways:

This range is basically the short hitter's range.David Lipsky is a very strong stat fit, and is someone that is coming in with great form. He should be a strong play.

Justin Lower is just an alright play for me this week. Same with Brandon Wu, both are plays I am not excatly going out of my way to play, but not avoiding either. Gotterup more of the same.

Piercy, ZJ, and Armour are all interesting plays. Armour ranks out really well and has finished top 30 or better in his last few starts. ZJ has excelled at this tournament and has made 3 straight cuts in a row. He is really good at these shorter trackers. Scott Piercy has made 2 straight cuts at this event, and has been playing better lately. Heck it is not too long ago we saw him almost get a win. All 3 make for solid value plays.

Takeaways:

All are players that you could find reasons to play, I just like some of the other golfers around there price point ranges better.

Player Pool Breakdown:

Player Pool is rank in order

(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)

Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.

GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.

Cash: Core + Power, Clark, Smalley, Merritt, Spaun, Armour, Piercy, A Bad

GPP: Mont, Hoge, Griffin, Gordon, Lipsky

*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)

I really like the starting approach to this lineup, it creates for some easy pivots at each spot.

Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \

*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)

Another week, another seemingly easy week to fade some bad chalk. Part of what has made the Fall Swing easier is the random bump in ownership for golfers that are bad or not as good of plays as others around their price point.

Over Owned / Under Owned: