PGA DFS: Travelers Championship 2022 (Members Only)

Overview/Recap

Matt Fitzpatrick with the big clutch up for 925 Nation last week getting the win at the US Open. Last week was a strange week because although some had 3 out of 6 across the cut line (which was the norm last week) people were able to have a good week. That was just the week that it was. It was just another one of those weeks where we keep making the most correct decisions we can and we are seeing the payoff week in and week out. Hoping that continues into this week.

This week we have the Travelers Championship which was also a very fun event last year. 925s boy Harris English took home the W after an epic almost 2 hour long playoff.

This week it might not be a fun week basically every golfer that should be a great play given their price point has not just bad course history but TERRIBLE! course history. This is leaving us with a lack of "safe" plays. The lower we get down into the prices the riskier they get, which does make sense but this week will certainly be tough to navigate with a lack of "safe" plays. With the lack of safe plays that we are getting, I have found myself wanting to dip into the value tier more than I typically do. Obviously, that is not safe either, but at least that is going to be a known factor for us, at least we can schedule in that missed cut while making the rest of our builds.

On the video this week you will see me using what is an updated version of the cheat sheet. I had made this to help put less "stress" on mobile devices. Right now I am put in the website as a soft launch so that as I use it this week I can see what thing should be adjusted and tweaked. The great thing about this tool is that you can now turn your phone to the side and t will operate as it would on the website. The link to that is in the white button. The Cheat is still the Cheat Sheet Light.

Updates/Notes:

Course Preview:

Key Stats:

- Effective Scoring

- B2B

- SG AP

- Ball Striking

- Total Driving

- SG Putting

- Par 4

With the course playing as a Par 70 course it is not a surprise that Par 4 scoring was one of the most key stats for this week. What did surprise me that there was a slight emphasis on putting this week. But really this week is all about playing good golf as a whole. You might be a little bit shocked to see Total Driving up there as it has not really led to winning success, but in terms of making the cut, golfers who have struggled with TD have tended to miss the cut here.

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2021, 2019, 2018, and 2017 course history.

H1 - Travelers 2021

H2 - Travelers 2020

H3 - Travelers 2019
 H4 - Travelers 2018

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Red

This week I sort of dislike it, I find myself closing out my builds with 2 or sometimes three golfers that I do not feel great about. Once again a lot of this is due to poor course history, or for some golfers no course history. It is a week in which I will be scaling back what I typically put in.

Weather:

The weather is looking like it could produce some great scoring as it will be under 10 mp/h the whole weekend and the slight rain that they are projecting could end up softening the greens.

BETTING:

First Round Leader

AM Tee Times

Last week Rory made bogey on 18 for us not cash a FRL ticket that was a little brutal but he did still finish top 5.

This week I do see it playing possibly easier in the morning as the greens might be softer due to the AM rain. But that might not be a huge edge, and you will see we really do not have that many great plays in the AM-only spots.

*Targeting AM Only

- Rory 20/1

- Mito 35/1

- Riley 45/1

- Xander 30/1

- Theegala 100/1

- Ramey 150/1

PM Tee Times

- Cantlay 20/1

- Wise 45/1

- Burns 28/1

- Powers 35/1

 Outright Bets:

Sam Burns 18/1

Patrick Cantlay 14/1

Xander 20/1

Seamus Power 28/1

Brendan Steele 65/1

Duncan 300/1

Mito 35/1

Round 1 Matchup Bets (3 Balls)

Placement Bets:

Top 10 Bets:

Rory +100

Burns + 200

Cantlay +140

Hossler 12/1

Top 20 Bets:

Xander -140

Power + 100

Varner + 150

Riley + 170

Mito +130

Top 40 Bets:

Steele -125

Rai +140

Duncan +275

Smotherman+200

Schenk +240

Hossler +140

HIGH TIER PLAYS: ($9,000 AND UP)

It was apparently Scottie Scheffler's birthday on Tuesday so there's that narrative. If you want to play him you can. I like Rory more. I don't feel good about it but I will not be playing much of Scottie or JT, because I like the other players around them slightly more and would rather get my exposure to those golfers at cheaper price points. As you guys know a lot of the high-tier is about being more correct, or in some weeks being less wrong. I am playing the golfers that give me the most confidence at their price point. Really no one is a bad play this week.

Rory McIlroy - $11,000 - High Exposure Play: The only worry with Rory as a play this week is that he has he won two weeks ago and was in contention last week. Two mental grinding weeks in a row, and that could lead to him having a less mentally sharp week this week. Still, he seems very motivated to play well and shove it in the LIV golf players' faces. He is the best pick in the 925 model. This is due to him have two 12 finishes here in the last 4 years. He has made the cut in 6 straight events. Over his last 5 starts he has an average finish 7.4, and over his last 10 he has an average finish of 20th. He is the 1st specialist, 1st in course history rank, 4th in stat fit, and 1st in recent form rank overall ranking out as the best pick in the 925 model.

Sam Burns - $10,400 - Core Play: Burns could still have a random missed cut, I do not think that is out of the picture but if he does make the cut I see him being in contention going into Sunday like he has been the past 3 weeks. Now last week he sucked on Sunday finishing 27th, so I almost expect him to do the opposite this week if he is in contention. The interesting trend I found with Burns this week is that after each major, and I consider the Players a major he has finished 1st, 2nd, and 1st in his following event. That is extremely intriguing to me when he is the 2nd best specialist has made 3 straight cuts here all better finishes than the last, 5th best in recent form rank, and overall ranks out as the 2nd best play this week. I love Burns as I play and I could see him getting another win this week as well.

Patrick Cantlay - $10,200 - Core Play: Cantlay has finished 13th, 11th, 15th, and 15th at this event over the past 4 years, which ranks out as the 3rd best in the field. He is only the 38th best specialist in the field which I guess would be his biggest worry. The next worry would be that he is only the 14th best specialist in the field. All that being said he still ranks out as the 3rd best play this week and this is due to good recent form and good course history.

Xander Schauffele - $10,000 - Core Play: In a less stellar field Xander only get a $400 price bump this week which I found very interesting. Maybe that is due to his lack of course history where he has finished 20th, and MC. Besides that he is a quality play. He is the 3rd best specialist in the field, 13th best stat fit, 8th best recent form, and overall ranks out as the 8th best play in the 925 model. Xander has earned himself a long leash with me as has Cantlay which is why I have no problem going back to the well with both of them this week.
 

Keegan Bradley - $9,400 - Mid Exposure: My biggest worry about Keegan this week is that last week was such a mental high for him that it could be tough for him to get up for this event. (Last week he was the hometown kid that played well). But Keegan does make for a quality GPP only play. He has two straight missed cuts at this course, a 2nd, and a 47th. He is top 5 in Total Driving, Ball Striking, and SG AP over the past 10 weeks in this field. He ranks out as a top 10 stat fit, and is in the 4th best recent form in the field. We do not have to think hard to see why he is a good play, but Keegan has proven time in and time again that he isn't mentally strong when he needs to be. That is why worry with him as a play this week which is why I am knocking him a little bit this week.

Seamus Power - $9,100 - High Exposure: Power is very much a Matt Fitzpatrick type play, where he is someone that has been trending in the right direction for some time now, and he could easily put it all together for a win. He has made 3 trips to this course over the past 4 years making the cut in all and finishing 19th last year. He ranks top 30 or better in all the key stats that we are looking at which ranks out top 20 in the field, which is basically what he ranks out in CH, and RF rank. He is the 4th best specialist in the field, and it does seem like Power is very much one of those golfers he has a "type". He is basically a poor mans version of Sam Burns.

HV3 - Mid Exposure - $9,000: Even with the missed cut last week HV3 still ranks out top 10 in the field in recent form ranks. He is also the 3rd best stat fit in the field. he is very much another one of those golfers that could easily put it all together to finally get the win. I do think that it should be noted that he stated that he has committed himself to the PGA Tour after a talk with the goat MJ. That means he will no longer have that league in the back of his mind heading into events. Maybe that is the reason he finally can break through this week is that he is just slightly more mentally focused.

Other picks I like: Niemann, Sungjae

MID TIER PLAYS: ($8,900 - $8,000)

Davis Riley - $8,900 - Mid Exposure: Riley is really popping his week, and he is going to be tough to ignore. Sure he does not have any course history, and sure he is priced up this week but Riley is the 5th best specialist, which obviously all of that specific data is coming from this season. Riley is a top 20 stat fit and is currently in the 6th best recent form. He ranks out top 5 in the model this week. Personally, I see him more as a top 12 play, but the model ranking really points the safety and upside he has had this season.

Mito Pereira - $8,700 - Mid Exposure: Riley and Mito are once again the same play this week, and maybe a year from now they will be used the same as I use Cantlay/Xander. Seemingly when one of these guys are a good play so is the other one. Mito is the 8th best specialist, 6th best stat fit, and ranks 13th in recent form rank. He ranks out slightly better than Riley even with his missed cut on the number last week.

Brian Harman - $8,600 - Mid Exposure: My gut is saying that it is Brian Harman week, my mind is saying that we have seen this movie before. Harman comes into a week with great form, and good course history almost is too good of a play to pass up on and he just missed the cut. He keeps having random weeks where he will pop for multiple rounds but has not been able to have a complete week. At this course, he has finished 5th, MC, 8th, and 6th. Overall I think he is worth the look in GPPs this week, and if you end up on him in cash he is a good enough option.

Denny McCarthy - $8,300 - Low Exposure: Denny is priced up a ton this week, and it sort of feels like an overcorrection from him being a value play last week. He has now made 5 cuts in a row and has had two straight top 10 finishes, and has an 80% likelihood to make the cut. This all leads to the consistency that McCarthy has shown this season. The worry with him is what has really been the worry this season with him, lack of being an elite stat fit, and he has terrible course history. There is n need to go out of your way to play him as a play. Heck, the next golfer I am going to say has just as much upside and is a better stat fit.

Keith Mitchell - $8,200 - Low Exposure: To me Mitchell is a great GPP play. He has terrible course history-making one cut in 3 tries, and that made cut being a 56th place finish. But he has made 4 straight cuts in a row, ranking out in the 21st best recent form. He is the 10th best specialist and the 20th best stat fit. Obviously not a cash play but someone who could end up finishing top 10.

Other Picks I Like: Wise

LOW TIER PLAYS: ($7,900 - $7,000)

Brendan Steele - $7,700 - High Exposure: Steele is pretty much a cheaper version of Harman this week. That is also a reason why I have been struggling to get onto Harman as the week has gone on. Steele has finished MC, 6th, 21st, and MC at this course. Steele however has made 7 straight cuts in a row include 3 out of his last 4 starts being top 10 finishes. He is a pretty good stat fit, and just needs to get better in Strokes Gained Approach to really have a chance at winning. A good approach week with the same top 30 Ball Striking, Total Driving, and Par 4 scoring could lead to him being in contention on Sunday. The problem with Steele is that he is not a lock to make the cut. Maybe not the best cash play, but the price point almost makes you go that route, in gpps he is going to be worth the look.

Cameron Tringale - $7,400 - Mid Exposure: Tringale is part of that long list of golfers this week that has puzzling poor course history made one cut in 4 starts and that made cut was a 71s place finish. However, he ranks out as the 11th best specialist, 21st best stat fit, and 23rd in recent form ranks. He is a top 20 play, and I do expect him to make the cut but that poor course history is something that should not be ignored.

C.T. Pan - $7,300 - Mid Exposure: CT Pan continues that long list of quality golfers with terrible course history, in 4 starts he has one made cut. But that made cut was a 36th place finish which is much better than all the other golfers like him. He has made 7 straight cuts in a row on the tour ranking out 17h in recent form rank. He is the top 30 in specialist rating, a \nd stat rank. I wish his model rank was a little bit better but the chances are that he is going to make the cut. I think that he makes a lot of sense in cash this week.

Other Picks I like: Dahmen, Si Woo, Vegas, Rai, Hughes, Howell, NeSmith, Merritt

VALUE TIER PLAYS: ($6,900 - $6,000)

Beau Hossler - $6,900 - Mid Exposure: I think Hossler will make for a good outright bet this week as he has two top 10 finishes here in the last 4 years. He also nearly one as a long shot for us earlier this year and has since gone onto make 5 straight cuts in a row. He seems to be on his game and should be a good GPP play this week.

Austin Smotherman - $6,800 - Lower Exposure: Smotherman was a little bit shocking to see him ranking out as poorly as he is. He has made 5 straight cuts in a row now, and been a cut maker this season, and is a top 30 stat fit. Personally, I think he has a great chance to make the cut once again this week. I think if you're in the value tier trying to find a good value Smotherman makes sense in cash.

Lucas Glover - $6,800 - Lower Exposure: Glover should be able to make the cut at this event event. He is someone that just typically does make cuts. He has finished 20th, and MC at this tournament. Nothing much to him as a play expect for the fact that more times than not he is going to make a cut.

Zach Johnson - $6,800 - Lower Exposure: Zach Johnson is basically the upside of all the other plays that I like ZJ has great course history but everywhere else he sucks. Johnson has finished 25th, 11th, and 19th at this course. That's really it for him as a play. You hope that he finds some form.

Wyndham Clark - $6,700 - Low Exposure: Clark has went MC MC, and 15th at this tournament which for a value play I would say is not terrible. He has been a golfer that typically makes cuts. When he is missing a cut it is basically right on the number or close to that. In this field he ranks out as 30th in Recent Form Rank, and as the 33rd best stat fit. I think he will be right around a made cut once again.

Adam Schenk - $6,600 - Mid Exposure: Where a lot of golfers like Matthew NeSmith, Joel Dahmen, and Denny McCarthy who were value plays last week Schenk should have seen his DK price increase due to a strong finish, but it did not. I can only think that this is due to his HORRIBLE course history. Schenk has missed 4 straight cuts at this event. But he has been a golfer in good better form as of recent going 24th, 26th, MC (on the number) and a 41st place finish. He is 30 in specialist rating. If he had better course history I would want to go in on him more as a play but he is still worth the look I think this week.

Tyler Duncan - $6,400 - High Play: Duncan is a high play to me this week in the sense that he is clearly too cheap. Even if he does miss the cut he will really not hurt you that much at this price as playing him will mean that you can fit at least 2 studs into your build. Duncan has made 4 straight cuts at this tournament finishing 54th, 32nd, 43rd, and 33rd. At the RBC Canadian Open he shot an opening 76, then a 66 missing the cut on the number. A the CSC he finished 15th, at the AT&T Bryon Nelson he missed the cut. With the good course history at this cheap price point, the good enough play this season I think he could really reward us at this cheap price point. (So I ended up only be able to make a mid-exposure play when finishing the player pool)

Other Picks I like: Tarren

Player Pool Breakdown:

Player Pool is rank in order

Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.

GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.

Cash: Cantlay, Xander, Power, HV3, Steele, Harman, Pan, Riley, Mito (If you have to Duncan, Schenk)

GPP: Tringale, Burns, Rory, Keegan, Hossler, Mitchell, Vegas

*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.

Lineup Process:

Trying to make a build work with Sam Burns, Xander, and Cantlay just isn't going to work out even if we end up going with Schenk, and Duncan. I had to close out that build with Justin Lower who in that sense is fine, as a last resort type play but definitely not a play you want to use other than that.

This first build is almost a bit too risky for my liking for a main build but once again I sort of feel like that is the week that we have. I actually might end up splitting my main build into two different lineups. One that is more studs and duds like this and one that is much more fair and balanced. The lineup approach with this one is let's target 2 golfers that have a great chance top 10 and potentially win, those golfers being Xander and Cantlay. After that we go with Power and Steele who are not really cash plays, but once again that is the week we have. They are both great upside plays. After that it is just filling in with Schenk and Duncan who to me are just cheaper than they should be. The hope is for one of them to make the cut.

This second build is one I do feel a little bit more comfortable with but do me and the data this lineup is just as likely to get 6/6 across the cut line. I think that big difference is that this build has a better 5 out of 6 percent, and it has a little bit more upside as a result. I did want to take more more crack at a strong 6 for 6 build by going balanced and the last build was that.

So I had to get off of HV3 and Power to make this more balanced build work. But it is a decent balanced build. Wise to me is the same as Scottie, and JT this week. He is a solid play just like the other golfers around his price point more. If you end up on him I am fine with it, which is what happened here. Decent 6 for 6 percent and a good enough build as a whole.

Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \

*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.

Under Owned:

Right now the same theme that we have been seeing the last two weeks in continuing into this week where we have a ton of quality plays up top to the point where none of them are owned enough. No huge edges just yet.

Over Owned:

As of right now personally, I do not see any golfers that are too over owned. This might change before lineup lock. Make sure to change the ownership leverage tool tomorrow night.

Round 1 Showdown:

*Using the FRL betting Tool

Do we have to play AM only? Maybe not, like I mentioned above the lack of great AM only plays is a little bit rough. But this is sort of where I like SD slates sometimes two golfers that I did not really want to play are somewhat looking like good plays. Chad Ramey, and Sahith Theegala being those golfers. They are fine values.

For making a quality AM only builds I want to be on Rory, Mito, Davis pretty much no matter what. From there Xander, HV3, and Harman filling in with Ramey, and Theegala where needed. If you do that you make the slate a lot easier.

Including PM players which I think you will need to do to take down a GPP it would be also looking at Cantlay, Niemann, Wise, Burns, Power, and Keegan. Other decent plays would be Aaron Rai, and Wyndham Clark.

Round 2 Showdown: