PGA DFS: US Open 2022 (Members Only)

Overview/Recap

Update on Cantlay: We got news that he has not able to practice the last two days at this course due to a family emergency. 1) Not 100% true this accurate but it did come from PGA Tour Radio. 2) Sounds familiar as this has happened in 3 of the last 5 events).

I do not see him as a cash play this week and will be slotting in Lowry as a cash play. I still think Cantlay makes for a fine GPP play. I am moving him down to just below Lowry.

I am looking forward to the US Open this week, which really isn't any different from the previous years of the US Open. Typically speaking this is the deepest field or one of the deepest fields, which leads to some soft pricing, which then leads to all of us being able to make some great builds. The only slight issue with this week compared to different years is the lack of obvious discounted plays. That being said we have a ton of quality plays across the board. It is very easy this week to make a great GPP build, and a little bit harder to make a great cash build.

Let's dive right into this week.

A member notified me that the data sheets were not showing up on his mobile view while using his Iphone. I am guessing that is occurring with some other members as well. I am looking into how I can get that corrected. In the meantime, I have included a "Light" version of the Cheat Sheet for you to use on your mobile devices. Click the button below to view. *Note if there ever is an issue like this please let me know by sending me a DM.

Updates/Notes:

Course Preview:

Key Stats:

- Effective Scoring

- B2B/BA

- SG AP

- Ball Striking

- Total Driving

- 200+

- Par 4

The beauty about the US Open is that even though it is played at a different course each year, they are very much choosing courses that will play a specific way, and with that, we can make a strong educated guess at what the key stats will be based on the previous years. With the course expected to play difficult both Birdie to Bogey ratio, and Bogey Avoidance are going to be key. simply ignoring a player's ability to make birdies would lead to being on some golfers that will not be able to bounce back from a bad hole. Golfers will make bogeys and it is important to know whether or not they will be able to overcome that. With the rough being longer and thicker than normal weeks, as well as the fairways being tighter than normal we tend to Ball Striking to be very important. Both TD and hitting greens are very much going to be key. Speaking on Total Driving, I think it is because of much golfers will hit the rough that having both distance and accuracy off the tee tends to be key. All golfers will hit their ball in the rough so when you're longer off the tee that gets you closer to the hole thus more likely to hit the green. With the course playing as a Par 70 we will see that Par 4 scoring is going to be key. Also with the impact of hitting the fairway, and with some longer par 4s we do see that 200+ (Long Iron Accuracy) can really be key as well.

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2021, 2019, 2018, and 2017 course history.

H1 - US Open 2021

H2 - US Open 2020

H3 - US Open 2019
 H4 - US Open 2018

Could look at other comp courses than the ones from previous US Opens, but all the ones that I thought would be the best for this week are ones that we are already pulling in for Recent Form. There is no reason to double-dip the chip.

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Green/Yellow

This should be an easy week to make great builds, but in a major with how hard a course can play, one bad shot could cost us some 6 for 6 builds. As long as we are using the right process, and picks throughout our builds it should lead to a solid week, and to some solid lineups My only slight caution with this week is the lack of just stand-out plays at too cheap of price points. In the mid-tier, we have a lot of quality GPP plays, and really just Matt Fitzpatrick that is looking like a strong cash play. This leads us to not be able to make a strong balanced build which then will lead to a little bit more of studs and duds approach. Anytime you need to dip into the lower price points it will cause a little bit more risk, but this week in this field that risk is reduced a lot more than normal weeks. Also, I do not see a need to dip into the value (6K) range really at all this week and especially when making a main build.

From my main build I will be making multiple one-offs from each player. So if I have Xander in my main build (which I will I think) I will make one build with at least Will Zalatoris or Shane Lowry. With Sungjae being in most builds I will make a one-off switch to say Davis Riley, or Russell Henley. I think tihs step will be very important in GPPs.

For those that will be mass entering, I will be capping at ownership at 50-70%. You will see below in the sample builds that making a strong builds means making a chalky build, and even though those plays are great we can gain a big edge by not chasing the chalk in GPPs.

Weather:

The weather could play a factor but this will be a wait-and-see approach. Currently, it looks like there could be a weather advantage for the AM tee times on Thursday. If the Friday PM Thunderstorms leads to a delay in the PM tee times that could lead to those golfers getting a finishing round 2 on Saturday morning. This could be a good thing or bad thing depending on the golfer. We will have to see what the weather is like on Wednesday. If there is an advantage I will call it out directly below here.

*It does look like there is going to be an AM weather advantage both days.

BETTING:

First Round Leader

AM Tee Times

Last week Wyndham Clark was the 8th most likely to have the first-round lead of the AM Tee times. He was 100/1, and I was literally one click off from giving you that winning bet. It would be awesome if one of you were able to use this to cash that ticket. Anyways we do need to see if there is going to be a weather advantage because that will greatly change our approach for the FRL bets. Also should be pointed out that Rory did cash as a T5 bet. I will be making those bets again this week.

This week we are getting great numbers for the FRL so it does make sense to bet golfers like Rahm, Rory, and Cantlay.

*Targeting AM Only

- Jon Rahm 22/1

- Rory McIlroy 20/1

- Joaquin Niemann 50/1

- Will Zalatoris 40/1

- Xander Schauffele 30/1

- Cameron Young 50/1

- Russell Henley 55/1

 Outright Bets:

Jon Rahm 12/1

Xander Schauffele 16/1

Sam Burns 30/1

Joaquin Niemann 40/1

Sungjae Im 50/1

Pattrick Cantlay 20/1

Max Homa 45/1

Matt Fitzpatrick 30/1

Round 1 Matchup Bets (3 Balls)

Rahm over Morikawa and Piot

POwer over Min Woo Lee, and Kim

Conners over Greaser, and List

Schenk over Hagestaed, and Murray

Yannik Paul over MJ Daffue, and Moldovan

Riley over Perez, and Stalling

Clark over Metthews and Besseling

Tarren over Buckley and Quinn

Rodgers over Nesmith and Vikc

Henley over Harman and Kisner

Merritt over Mouw, and Putnman

Good over Arnaus and Hogae

Burns over Ancer and Pieters

Placement Bets:

Top 10 Bets:

Rory +140

JT +140

Rahm +140

Xander +190

Burns +330

Top 20 Bets:

Conners +190

Riley +250

Henley +210

Homa +160

Niemann +150

Top 40 Bets:

Munoz +120

Adam Scott +120

HIGH TIER PLAYS: ($9,000 AND UP)

At least this week this price point range is not as loaded as it was last week. Sure the top 4 highest-priced golfers are all ranking out top 5 but we also get some riskier players after that. Surprisingly Cameron Smith has sucked at the US Open, Collin Morikawa, and Viktor Hovland have been struggling lately to have strong finishes. Sure could they have a good week? Yes but it is riskier, someone like Xander, and Cantlay are much safer and have just as much upside. DJ is interesting because he has done well at previous US Opens and it seems like he is going to be motivated to play well. Jordan Spieth has been playing great golfer and should make the cut. Hideki would be a great play if it wasn't for his potential nagging neck injury but he is also a better option to me than Smith, Morikawa, and Hovland. Will Zalatoris has just been turning up at majors and I think he could top 10 again but he is also a little bit risky of a play as well.

Jon Rahm - $10,800 - High Exposure: Personally I really like the defending champ, we can see that he has played well at the US Opens finishing 1st, 23rd, 3rd, and MC. He is also an extremely strong stat fit ranking top 22 or better in all the key stats including being the best in total driving and ball striking. It is just a few events ago that Jon Rahm won, and sure he has not been as consistent as he was heading into this tournament last year but he did just finish 10th at the memorial. Rahm ranks out in the 3rd best recent form, and is the 2nd best specialist. He is ranking out as the best pick in the 925 Model

Justin Thomas - $10,900 - Mid Exposure: I do love JT as a play this week as I think him and Rory are very motivated to play well. JT finished 3rd last week, MC the cut the week before that won, and finished 5th. He is the 5th best stat fit in the field this week ranking top 6 or better in 3 of the 5 key stats this week. He has finished 19th, 8th, MC, and 25th at the past US Opens. He should be a strong play once again this week. He ranks out as the 3rd best pick in the 925 model.

Rory McIlroy - $10,500 - Mid Exposure: Typically I do not like to target a golfer coming off of a win but both JT and Rory seem so motivated to not only play well but to win. Rory has now finished 1st, 8th, 5th, and 2nd over his past 4 starts. He has finished 7th, 8th, 9th, and MC over his past 4 starts at the US Open. I love the fact that both JT and Rory played well last week, and I do not see them having the typically contention "Hangover" if anything I think this will make them more hungry. The only reason I have them as Mid Exposure plays and not higher is price point. Playing them makes the rest of your build worse especially if they do not win.

Xander Schauffele - $9,600 - Core Play: Xander Schauffele is just too good of a play this week. He has finished 7th, 5th, 3rd, and 6th at the past 4 US Opens. He ranks top 25 or better in all the key stats for this week. On top of that he is in strong recent form ranking out 11th in the field, finishing 18th, 13th, 5th, and 1st in his past 4 events. He ranks out top 13 or better in the 4 key metrics and is 4th overall in the 925 Model. He should be a strong play it is just whether or not he can finally come through and convert a major for a win. Seems like this is going to be his best chance. The one worry that I do have for Xander is that he is paired with Rory, and Hideki, both golfers that should help lead to this group having a huge crowd following them for both days. Just a little added pressure but honestly not worried about this. I was trying to find a worry.
 

Patrick Cantlay - $9,200 - Core Play: The number of weeks I have rostered both Cantlay and Xander throughout their careers probably has to be the highest combo I have. That is because they have the same strengths which is what made them such strong plays for the Zurich Classic when they won. The event before that Cantlay lost in a playoff. He then had the typical missed cut after the Zurich Classic, and he then finished 3rd in his previous event. Cantlay has made the cut at the US Open in his past 4 tries. I guess the knock would be that has not finished top 10 at a US Open in the past 4 years. Cantlay is not the best specialist either ranking out 44th in the field. But he is currently looking like one of the best leverage plays, which would be huge because he is ranking out as a top 10 play this week.

Hideki Matsuyama - $9,100 - Low Exposure: At Hideki's price (being sandwiched in between Cantlay, Lowry and Niemann) I do not have the desire to go on social and translate Instagram posts to see if he is healthy or not. Or to see if he is going to get W'D for using the wrong equipment. Those 3 other golfers above are all basically the same play. Hideki has made 4 straight cuts at the US Open over the past 4 years with all of them being top 26 finishes. He is a really strong stat fit ranking T18 or better in all the key stats for this week overall ranking out as the 8th best stat fit. Hideki actually ranks out top 10 or better in all the metrics and ranks out as the 10th best play this week. Hideki like Cantlay could end up being a strong ownership leverage play.

Shane Lowry - $9,000 - Mid Exposure: Lowry I like a lot as a play, but the difference between Hideki, and Lowry is really not that big. Hideki is actually a better play in all the metrics but in recent form where Lowry ranks 1st in the field. This is due to having no bad made cuts over his past 10 starts and having multiple top 10 finishes during that stretch. Lowry has somewhat struggled at previous US Opens and that is the cause for concern with his as he has finished 65th, 43rd, 28th and MC. This is what is keeping him from being a core or high exposure play for me this week even though he ranks out as a top 10 play.

MID TIER PLAYS: ($8,900 - $8,000)

Joaquin Niemann - $8,900 - High Exposure: Niemann just has the feel of someone that is due to a breakthrough for a major (big) victory, and it would not be shocking to see that happen this week. If you take out the missed cut at the team event Niemann has finished 3rd, 23rd, 25th, 12th, 35th, 35th, 2nd, 1st, and 6th over his past 10 starts. He has shown both safety and upside which is something that I always value. Niemann has finished 31st, and 23rd at the previous two US Opens, ranking out with the 14th best course history. He ranks out as the 14th best pick in the 925 model.

Billy Horschel - $8,600 - Low Exposure: The worst part about Billy Ho's win is that he is now priced this high. This is the main reason he is only a low-exposure play, he is still a strong play but we can get similar plays at much cheaper priced points.

Matt Fitzpatrick - $8,500 - Core Play: Fitzpatrick is a core play this week due to two main factors, one being this price point, and the other that he is obviously a great play. Fitzpatrick has 7 finishes of T14 or better in his past 9 starts. He has been close to winning multiple events and just has not been able to turn the corner. Fitzpatrick has finished 55th, MC, 12th, and 12th over the past 4 US Opens. Fitzpatrick does not make that many mistakes which shows in both B2B/BA, and ESCR. That is the key to Fitzpatrick is that he is never too dominant in any stat but his game as a whole is solid. Overall Fitzpatrick ranks out as a top 10 play.

Daniel Berger - $8,400 - Low Exposure: Daniel Berger has been extremely inconsistent lately so it is no shock that he ranks out 32nd in recent form rank. He also does not rank out too well stat fit-wise only ranking out as the 33rd best stat fit. Berger however has played extremely well at the previous US Opens finishing 7th, 34th, 49th, and 6th over the past 4 years. He is also a top 12 specialist. Berger is a good GPP play terrible cash play.

Sam Burns - $8,300 - High Exposure: The only thing that gives me pause about Burns as a play this week is his US Open history where he has went MC, and 41st. But this year Burns is having a career year so that is something I would be willing to ignore. Basically, when Burns makes a cut he is one of the best players in the world. Since May 2nd of last year, Burns has 3 wins, and 3 runner-up finishes. Burns ranks top 8 or better in 4 out of the 5 key stats this week, and overall is the 4th best stat fit. Really if he can just get over his US Open woes he is going to be an elite play this week, and he could even win.

Max Homa - $8,100 - High Exposure: Homa like Burns has struggled at the US Open which obviously is surprising looking at them now as plays as they are both guys you would think would do well at courses that are featured for the US Open. Max Homa is in the 5th best recent form in the field coming off of a victory just 4 events ago, and since has went 13th, 23rd, and 5th. He has now made 11 straight cuts in a row, and I think both him and Burns if they make the cut have top 10 upside.

Other Picks I like: Tony Finau, Young

LOW TIER PLAYS: ($7,900 - $7,000)

Mito Pereira - $7,800 - Mid Exposure: Mito is the 9th best stat fit in the field, showing no weaknesses in him game for this week. He has now made 4 straight cutcuts in a row with all of them being top 20 or better finishes. I have loved how Mito has responded since the PGA Championship, and I believe that mental strength will carry him towards a made cut this week as well.

Corey Conners - $7,900 - High Exposure: If I love Homa, and Burns as plays well I have to love Conners as a play as well. All three have struggled at the US Open but I do expect them to figure it out. Conners is in the 7th best recent form in the field missing only 1 cut over his past 10 starts, 7 of those events were all T26 or better finishes. Conners is also a top 15 stat fit. He is a golfer that is strong in Total Driving and Ball Striking, and rarely makes mistakes. I kind of think that last week was more mentally challenging for Conners wanting to play well in Canada, and he did just that with a 6th place finish. Now I think he will be able to get to his calm and collective self this week.

Sungjae Im - $7,600 - Core Play: Sungjae will most likely be the highest-owned player on this slate as he really should be. He is clearly underpriced and clearly should have been at least the same price as Joaquin Niemann. Really it is just confusing how this happened. DK has been so so much better with their pricing this season that to have a blatantly bad price like this is just strange. What makes Sungjae a good play? He has finished 35th, 22nd, and MC at his past 3 US Opens. From there he ranks 11th in Total Driving, 3rd in Ball Striking, and B2B, and 9th in ESCR. He has made 8 straight cuts in a row, finishing 10th, 15th, 27th, and 21st. He is top 1o in Specialist ranking as well. Across the board, Sungjae is looking like a great play, and if by the off chance he misses the cut, it won't hurt you too much because of how cheap he is.

Talor Gooch - $7,500 - Low Exposure: Gooch is annoying! The dude dipped for the LIV Tour and now I do not know what to do with him. Will he be mentally geared up to play well this week I think so. But at the same time going to the LIV Tour is like KD signing with the Warriors. It is a move for the mentally soft. So it is tough for me to get behind Gooch. At the same time this is really the only big event that he might play in again for the next few years so why not go for it. Regardless he does rank out will this week, ranking out top 15 so he is a decent GPP play.

Davis Riley - $7,300 - Mid Exposure: You could make a decent argument for Mito, Young, and Riley as plays but Riley is the cheapest of the 3 so I might just like him the most. Riley ranks 8th in Total Driving, and 17th in Ball Striking. He also ranks out 29th in ESCR. He has made 6 straight cuts in a row. His average finish in this 6 starts is 8.5. The guy is playing great golf, and will be tough to ignore at this price point.

Russell Henley - $7,300 - Mid Exposure: Henley's form has really fallen a little bit little with a lack of strong finishes, which was somewhat expected. But Henley ranks out really well as a whole this week. He is a top 20 specialist, stat fit, and is 9th in course history rank. He has finished 13th, and 25th at this event in his past 2 starts. If he was in better recent form I would be all over him as a play but it is still a really good play this week.

Other Picks I like: Keegan, Power, Munoz, HV3, Wise, Harman,

VALUE TIER PLAYS: ($6,900 - $6,000)

Now personally I do not really see a need to dip down into this price point tier, which is why I am not going to give it the full writeup that I typically would. Matthew Nesmith is a decent value play making the cut in 6 straight events, overall ranks out 57thi in the model aka someone that should make the cut.

Denny McCarthy has been a cut maker this whole season, and chances are that he will make the cut again this week, but I do worry about the upside finish from Denny, and he is not a lock to make the cut either.

Ryan Fox has been killing it on the DP Tour this season but we saw at the PGA Championship it doesn't always translate as he finished 54th. All we want in this price point is a made cut and he gives us a decent chance at that.

Beau Hossler, and Joel Dahmen are both golfers I could see making the cut as well.

Player Pool Breakdown:

Player Pool is rank in order

Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.

GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.

Cash: Xander, Cantlay, Sungjae, Niemann, Henley, Munoz

GPP: Burns, Rory, Mito, Riley, Hideki, Young, Gooch

*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.

Lineup Process:

My favorite build or one variation of it this week is so chalky which all in all doesn't bother me but it is somewhat of a worry. Still I think this build has a really strong chance to get 6 for 6, and that is something that is tough for me to ignore.

I tried to make a balanced build as well, and the problem is that build ended up being more chalky.

Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \

*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.

First off I am very excited to get this new edition of the Ownership Leverage Tool out to you guys. It gives us a better indication of how over or undervalued a golfer is. It will allow you to decide whether or not you think that golfer will finish inside where they need to, to return value. Say Tony Finau for example purpose I do not think he is going to finish inside the top 10 so given his current ownership level I see no need to chase him as a play this week. On the flip side of that someone like Viktor Hovland really does not need to finish all too high to return value based on his current ownership projection. Now obviously at his price point we want a top 10 finish, and we might not get that. This part of the data-sheet is just telling us how they are being valued, and based on how they are being valued where they would need to finish to return value at the ownership level. I

Under Owned:

Paul Casey is not in the field so we do not have to worry about him as a play, but once again the theme this week is that the ownership is pretty spread out on the top end leading to not many golfers being too high-owned. Really the only golfers that are over-owned is just Jordan Spieth, being slightly overvalued this week. This does create some nice leverage. JT, Rahm, Scheffler, Cantlay and Smith are all golfers that are currently owned valued based on how they are projected to finish. This is a strong reason why I like Cantlay as a play. All in all he has a good chance to top 10 plus he is being undervalued. I like that a lot. I do not like DJ as a play but you could argue he will be motivated, and that his game suits the US Open as his event history has shown. That could be a strong ownership leverage play this week.

Over Owned:

Where I like this tool is that it gives us a good look at where golfers need to finish to pay off their ownership. Golfers like Wise, Mito, Fleetwood, Finau, Young, and even Homa I do see not being able to hit that return value finishing position but I do see them all making the cut so that is up to you to decide if they are good play. I do love Homa and I think he could win this week but chances are he misses out on a top 10. Rose, Webb, Wise, Keegan and Fleetwood are all easy stay-aways for me this week. I do not think they are strong enough plays to being getting the ownership they are getting.

Round 1 Showdown:

*Using the FRL betting Tool

I will be using the guys that all rank out top 20 in the first round leader betting picture that you saw above.

But I will be making some more risky builds with the AM weather wave looking like it will have the advantage. This is what I like about Showdown slates as it allows me to get onto players that I would not have been on or been on as much. I find myself playing golfers like Denny McCarthy, Matthew Nesmith, Wyndham Clark and Troy Merritt. This is due to me wanting to be on some of the studs we get in the round 1 AM tee times like: Xander, Rahm, Rory, and Cantlay.

One golfer that I either have too much of or not enough of is Russell Henley on this slate be is just priced too cheap. But that's where showdowns are nice you can make a great build because golfers are lower priced. Someone like Cameron Young I am on a lot more on the SD slate because he is lower priced and because he is a stud on in RD1.

A balanced build I like would look like: Xander, Niemann, Young, Billy Ho, Henley, and Cantlay. Mixing in values where needed.

I also got onto Aaron Wise a lot more than I am for the main slate.

Round 2 Showdown: