Dec 8, 202213 min
in 2022 we saw the DFS Companies / Sports Betting Companies figure out how to properly project players, this led to us no longer benefitting from having "Free" squares. This also led to us knowing that you must pay up for the high-priced studs as they were finally priced as a stud. Due to this, and due to golfer being a unique sport in which rosters are only 6 golfers I thought it would both be fun, and useful to track what goes into a winning line both for CASH and GPPs.
Are there specific strategies to follow based on EVENT type or SCORING type?
Do we need to change the way we view roster construction at all?
Where is the biggest edge right now?
How can we make better and more profitable lineups?
+ Whatever else popsw up.
Start with Basic: Min points it takes to Cash in GPPs, and in Cash. What the Winning lineup average is in GPPS?
Break the tournament down by Easy, Hard, and Normal Scoring events as well as no-cut events.
General Breakdown of what the major data told us. (Recent Form, Stat Fit, Course History, and Specialist, Betting, Cut %
Deep Dive Player by players breakdown.
Sample Size 29 tournaments
Single Entry Double Ups = 382.61
Full Tournament Field Events = 365.38
No Cut Events = 441
Difference: In No Cut events the number you need to hit to cash is 75.62 greater than in Full tournament field events.
Easy Scoring Events = 495.5
Hard Scoring Events = 343.19
Normal Scoring Events = 405
All Contests = 451.61
Full Tournament Field Events = 434.2
No Cut Events = 458.5
Difference: In No Cut events the number you need to hit to cash is 24.5
Easy Scoring Events = 630.8
Hard Scoring Events = 408.94
Normal Scoring Events = 447.4
All Contests = 569.5
Full Tournament Field Events = 569
No Cut Events = 575.5
Difference: No big difference
Easy Scoring Events = 762
Hard Scoring Events = 527.25
Normal Scoring Events = 616
6/6 = 7.1%
5/6 = 24.1%
4/6 = 32.7%
Easy Scoring Events = 6/6 = 7%, 5/6 = 21%, and 4/6 33%
Hard Scoring Events = 6/6 = 7%, 5/6 = 24%, and 4/6 33%
Normal Scoring Events = 6/6 = 8%, 5/6 = 26%, and 4/6 32%
Take away is that scoring does not change the 6/6, 5/6, or 4/6 %.
Question: If only 7% of lineups get 6 out of 6 across the cut line in full tournament field events is it even worth trying to make a lineup geared towards getting 6/6 across the cut line? Let's take a look at the Fantasy Points Distribution to figure that out.
High Tier = 75.4
Mid Tier = 63.6
Low Tier = 54.19
Value = 42.87
High Tier = 78.8
Mid Tier = 75.45
Low Tier = 66.17
Value = 61.7
High Tier = 85.1
Mid Tier = 60.2
Low Tier = 58
Value = 46.3
High Tier = 65.2
Mid Tier = 61.3
Low Tier = 48.7
Value = 37.4
High Tier = 75.2
Mid Tier = 67.7
Low Tier = 56.7
Value = 48.2
Take Away: The Highest-priced players will always be the top plays in a tournament no matter the Type of event. We do see that gap close a lot though in No-Cut events. The Value Tier players scored 17 points more than they do in Full Tournament Field events. This was the biggest gap of the pricing tier.
Suggests: That going a fair and balanced approach is the logical thing to do in Full Tournament Field events, and in No-Cut events going studs and duds.
Math: Take Average PTS scored in a No-cut event - a Full event = 117 /3 (3 players to include in the value tier) this equal 39. If you take the added 17 points that the Value Tier gains in no-cut events * 3 that 51. 51-39 = 12. By going with a Studs and Duds approach (3 Value Players) you are gaining 12 points that you typically would not have.
High Tier = 20%
Mid Tier = 26%
Low Tier = 43%
Value = 60%
High Tier = 18%
Mid Tier = 32%
Low Tier = 45%
Value = 65%
High Tier = 20%
Mid Tier = 21%
Low Tier = 39%
Value = 61%
High Tier = 19%
Mid Tier = 23%
Low Tier = 37%
Value = 52%
Common Misconception: "Easy Scoring Events bring the whole field into the event." In terms of making the cut this is not true, it is actually the upside.
Takeaway: In a normal event it makes sense to get riskier with your build as value plays, and Low Tier plays tend to make the cut more frequently. Whereas in Easy Scoring events the middle of the pack tends to be the ones the make the cut more frequently.
High Tier = 20%
Mid Tier = 25%
Low Tier = 42%
Value = 43%
High Tier = 19%
Mid Tier = 34%
Low Tier = 43%
Value = 34%
High Tier = 20%
Mid Tier = 40%
Low Tier = 40%
Value = 33%
High Tier = 19%
Mid Tier = 22%
Low Tier = 37%
Value = 45%
Takeaway: While reducing the field to the top 40 players we can greatly improve our chances of having a great value play make the cut. How much we improved this by Data Point: Full = 17%, Easy = 31%, Hard = 28%, Normal = 7%.
The takeaway here is that Normal events are going to be higher variance events because the field is more events across the board. But when it comes to Easy, and Hard scoring events we can see the value in chasing a great value play.
High Tier = 74.2
Mid Tier = 64.7
Low Tier = 54.38
Value = 56.76
High Tier = 79.5
Mid Tier = 75.45
Low Tier = 65.77
Value = 66.86 *Only 7 players
High Tier = 83.4
Mid Tier = 57.7
Low Tier = 57.8
Value = 64.67 *Only 15 players
High Tier = 65.2
Mid Tier = 61.8
Low Tier = 47.3
Value = 55.4
High Tier = 75.38
Mid Tier = 67.73
Low Tier = 56.83
Value = 50.81
Takeaway: The 925 Model focuses on both safety and upside. While finding the value plays that rank top 40 in the 925 model we can find golfers that are more likely to make the cut and thus are more likely to produce better fantasy points. This is more true for Harder scoring, and Easy scoring events.
Full Tournament Field Events: The number to hit to Cash on average is 365.38
3 High Tier + 3 Value Tier = 392.88
Edge = 27.5
2 High Tier + 2 Value Tier + 2 Low Tier = 370.68
Edge = 5.3
3 Mid Tier + 1 High Tier + 2 Low Tier = 377.06
Edge = 8.8
6 Mid Tier = 388.2
Edge = 22.82
No-Cut Events: The number to hit to Cash on average is 441
3 High Tier + 3 Value Tier = 438.93
Edge = -2.07
2 High Tier + 2 Value Tier + 2 Low Tier = 424.12
Edge = -16.9
3 Mid Tier + 1 High Tier + 2 Low Tier = 437.39
Edge = -3.61
6 Mid Tier = 452.7
Edge = 11.7
* Noted these are based on the average, by going through the weekly process, and ending up on the correct top-end plays each week we can find the best lineup paths to go by. I wanted the above to be an example of how we can improve our lineup process just going off of the average plays. Now we can improve those averages on the top end by targeting to top players. For Example, if we played someone that is top 3 in the 925 Model this is what they average.
Full = 79.5
No-Cut = 84.29
Easy = 90.61
Hard = 65
Normal = 78.96
- Know how many points you need to put up on average to cash. Keep that in mind when you’re creating your lineups.
- On average only 7% of lineups get 6 for 6 across the cut line. If we reduce the field to only the top 40 we can find value plays that on average will score 9 total more points, and will make the cut 20.7% more frequently.
- “Normal” scoring events have the most variance across the board meaning that they are less predictable. These would be contests that you want to enter less.
- In Easy scoring events if you play two players top 3 or better in the 925 model with 3 value plays you can increase your point total on average by 45.7 DK PTS.
- No-cut events if you have no idea what to do the data suggests going with 6 Mid Tier Players.
o But if you game no cut events like you would “Easy” scoring events you can gain an edge on the field.
- Focusing on the top players does increase you point total. Don’t be stupid.
Average Salary Total = $49,613.03
Average Ownership Total = 67%
Average Model Rank = 34.9
Average Betting Odds = 76
Average Cut % = 68%
Average Stat Fit = 36.7
Average Recent Form = 34
Average Course History = 29.5
Average Course History Starts Past 4 Years = 2.1
RF1 Average = 40.8
RF2 Average = 46.9
RF3 Average = 50.6
RF4 Average = 46.6
RF5 Average = 44.1
SPEC Average = 41.2
ETD Average = 34.4
DD Average = 41.4
GD % = 35.4
SGT2G = 21.8
SG AP = 29.7
SG OT = 32.7
SG ARG = 39.3
SG Putt = 39.4
B2B Ratio = 25.9
BOB = 14.6
200+ = 28.5
200-175 = 37.3
175-150 = 38.9
150-125 = 38.3
125< = 40.2
Par 4 Scoring = 27.4
Par 5 Scoring = 22.6
Now Individually looking at those stats I would say that there is not much that we need to draw any conclusions from exact one thing, and that is a lot of the GPP winning lineups are just not that good as a whole. They actually suck compared to my expectations of what a GPP winning lineup would be. So with that I want to take a look at a GPP winning lineup based on the Player. What I mean by that is we have 6 Players, I want to look at each one specifically and see what we can determine from them. Starting with Player 1.
Average Salary Total = $10,322
% In 11K Range = 22%
% In 10K Range = 41%
% In 9K Range = 32%
% in 8K Range = 0.5%
Average Model Rank = 4.8
% Number 1 in Model = 27%
% Top 3 in Model = 64%
% Top 5 in Model = 81%
Outside of Top 10 in Model 13%
Average Betting Odds = 17.8/1
Average Made Cut % = 84%
Average Stat Fit Rank = 8.5
% Number 1 in Model = 9%
% Top 3 in Model = 18%
% Top 5 in Model = 41%
Outside of Top 10 in Model 27%
Average Course History = 25.5
% Number 1 in Model = 5%
% Top 3 in Model = 14%
% Top 5 in Model = 24%
Outside of Top 10 in Model 57%
Average Starts At Tournament = 2.6
% of Tournaments With at Least 1 Start = 93%
% of Tournaments With at Least 2 Starts = 71%
% of Tournaments With at Least 3 Starts = 57%
% of Tournaments With at Least 4 Starts = 29%
Recent Form 1 = 23.2
Recent Form 2 = 18
Recent Form 3 = 37
Recent Form 4 = 19.2
Recent Form 5 = 29
Specialist = 11.2
Key Stats:
ETD = 21.7
DD = 28.4
GD% = 26
SGT2G = 12.1
SG AP = 24.9
SG OT = 22
SG ARG = 27.1
SG Total = 3.8
SG Putt = 29.35
B2B Ratio = 24.9
BOB % = 5.2
200+ = 23.9
200175 = 31.7
175150 = 30.9
150125 = 31.5
125< = 37.3
Par 4 = 19.4
Par 5 = 13.5 (29 % ranked top in Par 5 Scoring)
Average Own = 19%
Takeaways = The top players for the week are in GPP winning lineups, and they are typically higher owned because they are top players. The Stat Fit, and Specialist Data are key when targeting Player 1. The top Key Stats are SGT2G, SG Total, BOB % and Par 5 Scoring (go figure). Player 1 is not a spot to get "cute" it is a spot to simply play the best Golfer(s)
Average Salary Total = $9518.2
% In 11K Range = 0
% In 10K Range = 27%
% In 9K Range = 50%
% in 8K Range = 18%
Average Model Rank = 19
% Top 5 in Model = 18%
% Top 10 in Model = 41%
% Outside top 20 = 31%
Average Betting Odds = 25.3/1
Average Made Cut % = 80%
Average Stat Fit Rank = 22
Top 10 Stat Fit = 41%
Average Course History = 31.1
Average Starts At Tournament = 1.9
% of Tournaments With at Least 1 Start = 79%
% of Tournaments With at Least 2 Starts = 50%
% of Tournaments With at Least 3 Starts = 36%
% of Tournaments With at Least 4 Starts = 29%
Recent Form 1 = 41
Recent Form 2 = 54
Recent Form 3 = 28
Recent Form 4 = 44
Recent Form 5 = 26
Specialist = 21
Key Stats:
ETD = 31
DD = 37
GD% = 35
SGT2G = 14.1
SG AP = 17.7
SG OT = 23.8
SG ARG = 45.3
SG Total = 3.5
SG Putt = 29.8
B2B Ratio = 18.5
BOB % = 8.6
200+ = 24.1
200175 = 33.4
175150 = 41.2
150125 = 35
125< = 33.21
Par 4 = 16.2
Par 5 = 10% (82 % ranked top 10 in Par 5 Scoring)
Average Own = 16%
Takeaways = Player 2 is just a slightly worse version of Player 1. Player 2 ranks out well in SG Total, Par 5 Scoring, BOB%, and SGT2G. Player 1 and Player 2 both had over 75% at least 1 start a t tournament in the last 4 years. Player 2s average roster salary range is 9K
Average Salary Total = $8286.36
% In 9K Range = 5%
% In 8K Range = 50%
% In 7K Range = 45%
Average Model Rank = 33
% Top 20 in Model = 40%
Average Betting Odds = 54/1
Average Made Cut % = 69%
Average Stat Fit Rank = 27
Top 10 Stat Fit = 45%
Average Course History = 38.3
Average Starts At Tournament = 2.3
% of Tournaments With at Least 1 Start = 79%
% of Tournaments With at Least 2 Starts = 79%
% of Tournaments With at Least 3 Starts = 50%
% of Tournaments With at Least 4 Starts = 29%
Recent Form 1 = 52
Recent Form 2 = 45
Recent Form 3 = 55
Recent Form 4 = 42
Recent Form 5 = 44
Specialist = 39
Key Stats:
ETD = 40
DD = 45
GD% = 36
SGT2G = 17.5
SG AP = 24
SG OT = 38
SG ARG = 40
SG Total = 9.3
SG Putt = 42
B2B Ratio = 18.1
BOB % = 9.2
200+ = 33
200175 = 33.4
175150 = 41.2
150125 = 37
125< = 33.8
Par 4 = 35
Par 5 = 13.5 (82 % ranked top 10 in Par 5 Scoring)
Average Own = 15.8%
Takeaways = Once again basically the same key stats as the previous players. What surprises me is just how chalky Player 3 still is.
Average Salary Total = $7654.54
% In 8K Range = 23%
% In 7K Range = 72%
% In 6K Range = 4%
Average Model Rank = 34
% Top 20 in Model = 40%
Average Betting Odds = 81/1
Average Made Cut % = 58%
Average Stat Fit Rank = 27
Top 10 Stat Fit = %
Average Course History = 3.3
Average Starts At Tournament = 2.4
% of Tournaments With at Least 1 Start = 93%
% of Tournaments With at Least 2 Starts = 73%
% of Tournaments With at Least 3 Starts = 57%
% of Tournaments With at Least 4 Starts = 22%
Recent Form 1 = 52
Recent Form 2 = 45
Recent Form 3 = 45
Recent Form 4 = 53
Recent Form 5 = 41
Specialist = 43
Key Stats:
ETD = 40
DD = 40
GD% = 41
SGT2G = 21.7
SG AP = 30.8
SG OT = 32.8
SG ARG = 36.7
SG Total = 13.5
SG Putt = 42.4
B2B Ratio = 21.01
BOB % = 9.6
200+ = 31.5
200175 = 36.2
175150 = 34.3
150125 = 41
125< = 46.6
Par 4 = 23.8
Par 5 = 29.9
Average Own = 6.5%
Takeaways = Once again basically the same key stats as the previous players. What surprises me is just how chalky Player 3 still is.
Average Salary Total = $7136
% In 8K Range = 9%
% In 7K Range = 50%
% In 6K Range = 36%
Average Model Rank = 53
% Top 25 in Model = 37%
Average Betting Odds = 132/1
Average Made Cut % = 58% (9% under 50%)
Average Stat Fit Rank = 54
Top 25 Stat Fit = 37%
Average Course History = 36.3
Average Starts At Tournament = 1.3
% of Tournaments With at Least 1 Start = 57%
% of Tournaments With at Least 2 Starts = 43%
% of Tournaments With at Least 3 Starts = 21%
% of Tournaments With at Least 4 Starts = 14%
Recent Form 1 = 51
Recent Form 2 = 45
Recent Form 3 = 45
Recent Form 4 = 51
Recent Form 5 = 53.5
Specialist = 69
Key Stats:
ETD = 35.9
DD = 38.9
GD% = 40
SGT2G = 30.1
SG AP = 40.2
SG OT = 38
SG ARG = 40
SG Total = 9.3
SG Putt = 42
B2B Ratio = 18.1
BOB % = 9.2
200+ = 33
200175 = 33.4
175150 = 41.2
150125 = 37
125< = 33.8
Par 4 = 35
Par 5 = 13.5 (82 % ranked top 10 in Par 5 Scoring)
Average Own = 6.1%.
Takeaway: All the same key stats matter here, and so does having a start at this tournament. That is looking like it should be the focus. Golfers that have at least made a start at a tournament and are good stat fits in BOB, Par 5 Scoring, SG Total.
Average Salary Total = $6859
% In 7K Range = 43%
% In 6K Range = 57%
Average Model Rank = 53
% Top 25 in Model = 7%
Average Betting Odds = 135/1
Average Made Cut % = 56% (9% under 50%) (two at 49% to make the cut all the rest were over that)
Average Stat Fit Rank = 61
Top 25 Stat Fit = 6%
Average Course History = 47.1
Average Starts At Tournament = 1.69
% of Tournaments With at Least 1 Start = 79%
% of Tournaments With at Least 2 Starts = 50%
% of Tournaments With at Least 3 Starts = 36%
% of Tournaments With at Least 4 Starts = 0%
Recent Form 1 = 44.6
Recent Form 2 = 66.5
Recent Form 3 = 69.6
Recent Form 4 = 30.1
Recent Form 5 = 65.3
Specialist = 59.5
Key Stats:
ETD = 37.7
DD = 51.8
GD% = 34
SGT2G = 29.1
SG AP = 36.2
SG OT = 44.2
SG ARG = 42.7
SG Total = 25.5
SG Putt = 45.6
B2B Ratio = 37.7
BOB % = 25.2
200+ = 26.1
200175 = 37.7
175150 = 52.3
150125 = 45.9
125< = 43.3
Par 4 = 32.3
Par 5 = 38.9
Average Own = 6.1%
Takeaway: All the same key stats matter here, and so does having a start at this tournament. That is looking like it should be the focus. Golfers that have at least made a start at a tournament and are good stat fits in BOB, Par 5 Scoring, SG Total.
Player 1
- $10,322
- Top 3 in Model
- Average Ownership = 19%
Player 2
- $9,518
- Top 10 in Model
- Average Ownership = 16%
Player 3
- $8,266
- High Made Cut %
- High Number of Tournament Starts
- Average Ownership = 15.8%
Player 4
- $7,654.54
- Top 35 in 925 Model
- High Number of Tournament Starts
- Average Ownership = 6.5%
- Player is a “Shoulder Shrug Play” a good play, but not a great play.
Player 5
- $7,136
- 91% Had a made cut over 50%
- Not a great play on paper
- Average Ownership 6.1%
Player 6
- $6,859
- 91% made cut over 505
- 79% made at least one starts at tournament over the last 4 years.
- Average Ownership = 6.1%
- “Bad” play on Paper.
Roster Construction Takeaways (Ways to Filter Down):
- 80% of golfers in lineups had at least 1 start. Just having a start at the tournament is huge.
- Chalky plays on the top end are good, less chalky plays on the lower end.
- Key Stats = B.O.B%, SGT2G, SG Total, Par 5 Scoring.
- 1 Player from the 10K range, 1 player from the 9K range, 3 or 2 players from the 7K range (if 2, then 1 from the 8K range, 1 player from the 6K range.
- Leave $400 left on the board.