Hall of Fame Game: NFL DFS: Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals
- 4 days ago
- 5 min read
In this write-up I will be covering my favorite plays in NFL DFS for the Hall of Fame Game between the Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals
Betting Preview:
The Arizona Cardinals are 1.5 underdogs with the game total opening up at 36.5, and has since dropped down to 34.5. We already know that the starters for both teams are sitting, but it does appear that the Cardinals will be playing a little bit more of their backups compared to the Panthers. Carson Beck is starting, and Haynes King will be getting a majority of the reps at QB for the Panthers. I think one of the better bets for tonight is the Cardinals money line at +100 or so odds.
DFS Preview:
This is a slate where we should be loading up on at least two Kickers or DST. This is due to two factors. 1) Vegas expects this game to be low scoring 2) Most hall of fame games are pretty low scoring games with not that many TDs. TDs are also a bit random. If you get to the correct combination of the 2 Kickers/DST that will likely create a good floor of around 15 total points. Which actually ends up being a huge number for a preseason game.
Panthers:
Confirmed Playing Time
Quarterbacks:
Kenny Pickett:
Expected to play 2 series
Limits his upside, makes him a tough play overall
Haynes King
Expected to play the rest of the game.
Has some of the best prop lines which indicates that he will be one of the top plays on the slate. He makes for one of the better CPT choices on the slate as well due to his rushing floor that he should have. Now King has been recorded as not running as much in camp which is just an interesting thing to note. I do think it makes sense to have some of ARI DST in the CPT spot in case King is just terrible.
Running backs:
Confirmed OUT: Hubbard / Brooks
Etienne is expected to play but I just do not see him getting a lot of work. I think the most likely scenario is that he plays with Pickett, and once Pickett leaves he may get one more series if that. This limits his upside.
AJ Dillion: Typically speaking veterans like Dillion would not get much more in a game like this especially when we got two younger RBs that are lower on the depth chart.
Tyus/Davis: This leads me to believe that the RBs that will get the most work for the Panthers are Tyus and Davis. Tyus will close out the first half, and then get some work in the second.
Davis will then finish of the game, at least that is what I am projecting. Davis holds big play upside, and he is one of my favorite dart throws on the slate. Don't go crazy with him, but I think he makes for a great CPT choice rather than a FLEX choice as the point of playing him is chasing random upside at a lower ownership.
Pass Catchers:
Jimmy Horn Jr:
A lot of people are going to be on him as he holds a decent amount of name value, but I think there is the potential for him to not see that much work. Based on reports I have seen he is currently their WR4. They may choose to limit his snaps. The most likely scenario is that he is on the field with Pickett. Does better offensive flow from a better QB lead to more DFS points or should be target the back up to back up connections?
Ja'seem Reed:
Reed has also had a lot of hype out of camp, but the one thing that I noticed with him is that a lot of the throws, and preseason play charts I have seen show him catching passes from King. This makes him a great stacking choice in lineups with King.
Others to consider: Moore, Metchie, Treymayne, Casey Washington
The issue that I have with the Panthers is that they are somewhat deep at the position. They also just recently brought in two more WRs on Tuesday. Is that a predictor that backup WRs like Moore, Treymayne, and Horn are less likely to play tough to say.
If I had to choose another WR that I like it is Casey Washington who played well for the Falcons in previous preseasons. He has had somewhat of a connection with King.
So simple breakdown, Stack King and Reed together. Sprinkle in Davis in about 5% of CPT builds. Go heavy on the Kicker and DST.
Sacks (IDP/D/ST Boost): Expect 3-4 total for the favored team, and about 2 for the none favored team.
Turnovers (D/ST): Around 1-2 per game, often from rookie QBs or fumbled exchanges. This can net 4-6 D/ST points. Target the underdog's D/ST (Chargers here) for value, as favorites like the Lions (-1.5) may play conservatively.
Field Goals (Kicker Reliability): 2-3 made, worth 6-12 points for kickers (plus distance bonuses). Low totals (O/U 33.5) mean more FG attempts; stream Canton-tested kickers if available, but preseason rosters rotate heavily.
Detroit Lions:
Confirmed Playing Time
Quarterbacks: Expected to sit: Brissett, and Minshew. Starting - Beck. Slovis to close out the game.
Beck:
Expected to start, and I would imagine play basically all of the game. His passing yards have continued to rise as they have been released as well. I would get around 15% of him in the CPT spot, and he should be a very safe play on this slate.
Running backs: Love confirmed OUT, James Conner, and Tyler Allgeier not expected to play leaving 3 active RBs. Bam Knight, Corey Kiner and recently signed Evan Hull.
Knight/Kiner:
Don't think it really matters which one you get to, both of them are expected to see a lot of work here in this game. I would have around 5-9% of them in the CPT spot, and a decent amount of them in the FLEX I would target around 20% for them. Although these two RBs are more of guesses, and tougher clicks when we know to be on at least two kickers / DST, and when we have two great QB play. Basically hoping for a TD. Both can catch passes though. I like both more than any CAR RB.
Wide Receivers:
The tough part about the Cardinals is that they have a few quality backups in Weaver, Fehoko, and Brooks. If they for sure were going to play a lot of snaps we would be targeting them heavily as they would be able to exploit favorable matchups. The issue is I think we see some of their Younger WRs get a lot of work. I might sprinkle these three in somewhat but the two WRs I will be getting to the most are:
Reggie Virgil, and Harrison (Tre) Wallace:
Both players are rookies, and both have been having a good camp. Recently Virgil has been standing out more in camp, and should be a safer floor play. Wallace is more of a big bodied WR that I do believe will get an endzone target. The question is will him and Beck be able to connect.
Captain Picks:
1) Beck
2) King
3) Reed
4) Green
5) Knight
6) Kiner
7) Davis
8) Kickers
9) DST
10) Wallace
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