Highlighting the top picks for the Preseason Hall of Fame Game between the Jaguars and the Raiders. Going over the top Showdown and DFS picks as well as highlighting some bets!
To really dial in who the top plays are for Preseason NFL DFS we have to look at two things, the first is going to be the king, and the second has led to some easier low-owned plays.
Simply who is going to get the most playing time on the field. Whether it is a QB playing a full half-scoring throwing two INTs, and only scoring 5 DK points that is still enough to help you cash. RBs and WRs playing a lot are king.
What are the coaches' tendencies for each game. This will tell you somewhat of what the coaches' philosophies are for preseason games, and they tend to just use this to get a look at players.
We will start with number two, and look at the coaching tendencies for previous game 1s. This will be pretty useful this week as these two teams with have the old 4 preseason games, while every other team will only have 3.
Doug Pederson - Jaguars:
While working with the Eagles Pederson was someone that sucked for preseason purposes. In 2019 he had 5 different RBs get carries, with all of them getting around 3 carries only. This trend continued in both 2018, and 2017 as well. The same was true for the WRs where everyone got looks in week 1. The biggest takeaway is that he did have the 3rd string QB throw on average 16 times per game. Which is certainly enough. I think that would be the route I would go with this week.
I think it is also worth noting that Pederson was 1-4 in preseason week 1 games while only scoring on an average of 12.5 DK points. Given how sloppy the hall of fame game tends to be I would bet the Jags to score under 15 points, and to most likely lose.
The biggest takeaway from this all is that you might just want to target the Raiders D, especially in the captain spot.
Josh McDaniels - Raiders:
One of the easiest plays in preseason DFS was targeting the Patriots preseason RB, and it tended to become clear as the camps went on, this player was a cash cow. Typically speaking this would be true for both a WR, and a QB as well. I at times ran out multiple team stacks with a Pats QB, RB, and WR. What we will find out on Thursday night is whether this was due to McDaniels or due to Belichick at the very least McDaniels would adopt that approach.
I think it is worth noting as well that the Hall of Fame game on average over the past 3 years has only scored 23 points. This makes me want to bet the under of 30.5 in a half.
Bet the under
Play an Eagles QB
McDaniels could lean on a preseason “star” WR, RB, and QB
Jaguars Players to Watch:
It has been reported that Trevor Lawrence, and C.J. Beat-Hard are not going to play which means that we will most likely get a half of Jake Lutton, and Kyle Sloter, with Lutton starting. Now I mentioned that Pederson did have a tendency to let his backup QBs throw, this leads me to believe that both Lutton, and Sloter will throw the ball around 15-18 times, which for NFL standers would not be a lot total. I think the process here is simple you could play one of the QBs in your builds just not both. Sloter basically sucked in the USFL league in his most recent football playing experience. Lutton at least looked decent two years. He would be the one I would want to most of.
The Jags are not going to play Travis Etienne or James Robinson, which means we are going to get a mixture of Snoop Conner, Ryquell Armstead, and Mekhi Sargent.
I was very impressed by Snoop Conner, he reminded me of Ryan Mathews a little bit with his upright running style, his version, and burst through the whole. He has also been reportedly good in pass blocking as well. If we remember back in the day Doug Pederson brought in Ryan Mathews and that could have been what he was looking for when the Jags moved up to get Conner. He is currently listed as the RB3 in this offense which could be a worry for this game as I wonder just how much he will play.
Both Armstead and Sargent are NFL RBs, Armstead being the better of the two but I was impressed with Sargent as well in last year's preseason. With Sargent it might just be the case of him getting a lot of rushing attempts that creates a biased for me because he ended up with the most rushing attempts out of any RB in last year's preseason.
The Jaguars WR room is going to be the toughest part about this game, while a lot of the starters like Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Marvin Jones, are not expected to get a lot of work if any at all which leaves us with Shenault, and Treadwell to potentially play a quarter. Treadwell ended the season basically being a free square for us in DFS for over a month so I am a little tempted to play him this week. I do not really love any of the WRs for the Jaguars as I fully expect the “wealth” to be spread out. The only WR that has gotten some slight hype has been Lajuan Winningham whose film was that of a shitty Dede Westbrook.
No need to play a TE, Jags also have two Kickers so that will be a stay-away for me as well.
Raiders Players to Watch:
Right now we do not have a clear indication of what is going to happen in the QB room for Thursday’s game. I would guess that Carr would be inactive. Possibly we get a quarter of Nick Mullens, then we see Chase Garbers, and running QB Jarrett Stidham.Garbers was not a good QB in college, and Stidham at least has experience in a Josh McDaniels offense in the past. He has big rushing upside, and he would be the only QB for the Raiders that I would want to target, but as a whole, this just might be a pass.
This position right now is going to be tough to break down, because the Raiders have 4 veteran RBs (Jacobs, Drake, Ameer, and Bolden) , and a FB (Johnson) that really has no business playing in this game. This leaves us with Zamir White, Britain Brown, and Austin Walter as the only RBs that would get PT. Walter just signed last Friday so it would be hard to expect him to get a lot of snaps, this leads me to both it will be White and Brown. So if that is the case well it will be easy, that is the best case scenario, and in this scenario, we can roll with Rookie RB Zamir White. White would be the normal Rookie RB that gets a lot of work in the McDaniels offense like we have seen for years with the Pats. The issue is that he did just get back from a small injury, which could impact his workload. Brittain Brown did not look that good in college, and he has apparently not practiced since 8/1. So in this scenario, we see that if White is not injured at all it will be his game. Walter will most likely get the 4th quarter. It almost seems like Ameer Abdullah or Brandon Bolden might have to get work, but that really would not make sense.
At WR for the Raiders we have been seeing a decent amount of hype for Mack Hollins (which is just a yearly thing that I type), Keelan Cole, and Tyron Johnson, all of which will probably play anywhere from a series to a quarter in a half. The starters like DeVante Adams, and Hunter Renfrow are not expected to get work. This still leaves Justin Hall, Isaiah Zuber, and Jordan Veasy, all guys that I like a little bit.
Hall is a fun little gadget player who had a lot of production on short routes, and end around plays at Ball State. He is someone that I could see the Raiders calling a specific play or two for just to get a look at him in film.
Isaiah Zuber is a player that the Raiders fans seem to like, I personally do not get it. Jordan Veasy is just their for camp we know that but it would not be shocking to see him make a play.
Touching on Tyron Johnson, he is a big play WR, and if he is playing with a bunch of backups I do think that he will at least be open for a deep ball, now Stidham will most likely miss him but he I think that chance will be there.
Top Plays on the Slate:
Captain Picks / Core Plays:
Jake Lutton (Using Lutton try to stack one random WR with him)