This write up is not going to be as in-depth as the normal write-ups. We have 7 clear plays that I will touch on. I will post the player pool, and the stat model as well. The main reason of this is that DK really messed up with their contest sizes for this event. I think that they will all fill by tomorrow afternoon. (more than 12 hours prior to the contest starting)
Still, I really do like these style of events as typically people are not paying that much attention to them, they are full tournament field events that typically are tough to predict thus we typically will gain an edge.
The worst part about this week is that there are no cash contests that we can enter so we are forced to play GPP's. The second things is that this slate has softer pricing, I have had a ton of lineups with more than $500 leftover and I feel good about it which should never be the case.
In the Stat Sheet below you can see my Stat Fit ranking, and then the Model Rank. Stat Fit is just taking into account the Stats We are using for that week, and the Model Rank is my own personal formal that factors in recent form, and course history.
Top Plays:
Matthew NeSmith - $9,100:
Nesmith I like a lot as a play this week, he is a player that we have been targeting a ton this year as he had typically been priced too cheap. That is not the case this week, but he is a great stat fit, and is in great recent form. He has made the cut in his last 6 events. He finished T48 at the Mayakoba Classic earlier this year which is a comp course we can use. He is a top 10 stat fit in the field this week.
Zac Blair - $8,700:
Any other tournament and I would be disgusted that I am recommending Blair as a play, but you look at his course history and it is great. Finishing T62, T38, and T59. He also finished T14 at the Mayakoba. He has been in great form this year making his last 4 cuts. He has made 8 of his last 10 cuts as well. Half those have been T28 or better finishes. His finishes have all gotten better in the past month as well.
Henrik Norlander - $8,500:
Norlander is making a push at Russell Knox for the most owned player on the year. Which really leaves me thinking. WHAT!, and HOW?. Norlander has been impressive this year. He ranks top 37 in both total driving, and ball striking. He had a T41 finish at the Mayakoba, and finished T39 here in 2018 in his only start here. He has made the cut in 7 out of his last 8 events. With 4 of those being T28 or better, and two of them being top 10 finishes. Would not shock me if Norlander is in the hunt to win this weekend.
Tim Wilkinson - $7,600:
Wilkinson is my favorite play on the board this week actually. He has finished T17, and T21 here the last two years. He is a good stat fit (compared to the field). Ranking top 10 this week. He has made the cut in 5 out of his last 6 events, and when he has made the cut he has and finished right around T30 consistently. His missed cuts have not been poor either, aka if those events had been played with this strength of field he would have made the cut. This is the main reason I like him this week. We are getting a higher likelihood to make the cut at a low cost.
Cameron Percy - $7,500:
Ever hear someone say not all missed cuts are equal? Well that is the case with Percy. He has missed 4 cuts out of 9 starts this year, including 4 of his last 6 events. But he is - 9 in those four events, and that was with one +5 mixed in there. So basically he has only played poorly in one event this year. When you adjust to the strength of field those for this week he would have made the cut in 8 out of 9 events. He has finished T24, T26, and had a MC the year prior. He is a top 10 stat fit this week as well. I expect a T20 finish from him this week.
Alex Cejka - $7,400:
Cejka is a former winner at this event, and has no missed cuts here in the last 4 years. He has made the cut in his last 3 starts as well. Making 4 out of 6 on the year. His last 3 starts he has finished better in as well which is something we like to see. He isn't an elite stat fit, but given his form, and course history he makes for a great play at this price point, and is a great cash play.
PLAYER POOL
STAT SHEET
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