The fall swing has been strangely very easy thus far in terms of making profitable lineups. Last week my only sweat was a chalky Lanto Griffin, when he made the cut it meant that all of my lineups for the week would get 6/6 across the cut line. I hope this great stretch that we have had thus far will continue into this week at the RSM Classic.ch
Below you will see my breakdown this slate, calling out what data points we will be looking at to determine which golfers are the best plays this week and it will show why. The NineToFive Data is all curated data to specifically tell us and show us why a golfer is a good or bad play this week. I will be going through and putting my analysis to how the NineToFive Data views those plays and whether or not I agree with those plays. If you would like access to this great data, or the plethora of data that NineToFive offers click the join now button below and signup for just $10 a month.
Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
- BOB
- SGAP
- BS
- SGT2G
- PAR 5 Scoring
This tournament is all about scoring and taking advantage of those scoring chances, which is why we are looking at Par 5 Scoring, BOB, and Ball Striking.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Not a perfect slate, but a lot of good plays, and a very easy lineup path week.
Weather:
The rain that is in the forecast should actually soften up the greens and course to make it even easier to score on.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Outright Bets:
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.
I think Henley makes a lot of since as an outright bet this week, but the others listed here feel more like safe plays rather than they do outright bets.
Corey Conners
Eric Cole
Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Takeaways:
Looking at the players that are coming in as core plays they are two players that I am happy to go out of my way to play. Both Conners and Cole have safety and upside. They are pretty easy clicks for me this week.
High Exposure
Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Takeaways:
I would agree that Ludvig, and Henley should be high-exposure plays, but the rest of the players I hesitate to get to. Cameron Young feels overpriced, and Spaun is fine, but I see him more as a shoulder shrug play, and Ghim I don't really want to get to too much.
Rather I see Bhatia, Pendrith, and Poston as High Exposure Plays, I will touch on them as they pop up as plays.
Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Takeaways:
We have a huge group of players that are ranking out as Mid Exposure plays, and you can see why all of these golfers are seemingly good plays with some slight flaws.
The ones that I want to get to are Jaeger, Kuchar, Noren, Suh, Lashley, and Gordon.
To me Jaeger, Kuchar and Suh are all plays that should be very safe options, whereas I love Lashley, and Gordon due to their prices.
Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
Adam Svensson is certainly a play that is appealing this week, and he is a good example of the slight hit-or-miss nature of this event where he missed the cut, and then won the next year.
Hadley, Whaley, NeSmith, and Ramey are all intriguing plays given how well they have played thus far this fall, and if there's one thing I think trumps any other data point it is golfers that have played well in at least 3 starts this fall.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Bhatia, Conners, Cole, Bhatia, Pendrith, Suh, Kuchar, Jaeger
GPP: Poston, Ludvig, Henley, Lashley, Gordon, Hadley, Ramey
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup
I think that this is a good starting point for the week, where someone closes out there build gets difficult.
Ownership Leverage
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)
(Currently going through updates this fall)
