Nice bounce back week, was a very solid week, 0 missed cuts from the core plays, and only one from the High Exposure plays, that missed cut was by Tim Wilikinson. Basically if you were playing Wilkinson you landed up on Hatton, Webb, or Bryson all of which top 10'd so it didn't really hurt you too much. Of the players that made the cut, the average finish was 16th.
This week we get the WorkDay Charity Open, which is just a filler event for the John Deere Classic this week. Thus we will have 2 weeks in a row where we are getting the same golf course. Muirfield Village Golf Club. Thus we have a good data set to go off of to know how the course will play. Yes the PGA will try to make the course play different from both events, but threes only so much one can do.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: RED/Yellow
I feel like this is a very similar week to last week, just a little bit more tricky due to the amount of 7K plays that could go off and top 10. Still it should be easy to at least get 4 made cuts into your build this week.
KEY STATS: Birdie to Bogey Ratio (B2B), Total Driving (TD), Ball Striking (BS), SGT2G
What we have seen at this course, is that people that play it smart will do well. Plan where you want to hit your shots, and execute that, and you will make the cut.
BETTING:
Cantlay, Xander, and Hovland are all top end players I would bet on that have short odds to win.
Winner: Woodland + 3500, Billy Ho + 7000, Champ + 7500, Hubbard + 11,000, Stuard + 17500, Taylor + 22500, Hadwin + 5000
H2H: Cantlay over JT //// Hovland over Rickie /// Dahmen over Varner ///
SLATE BREAKDOWN:
Rahm and JT are fine plays, but I see my self starting out with Patrick Cantlay.
Patrick Cantlay: Cantlay is a great play even as the 3rd highest priced player. He has missed 0 cuts on the season, and he didn't miss a beat after the break making the cut in his only start and finishing Top 12. He also has finished 1st, and 4th here in the last two years. He is an elite stat fit. He is simply checking all the boxes this week.
Xander: I've said this a couple of times, but Xander and Cantlay are such similar players, they both strike the ball well, and barely make any mistakes. Xander does not have a missed cut since the break, and has really shown the ability to go low. Xander has a missed cut, and a top 15 finish here in two starts. He could easily top 10 this week.
Viktor Hovland: Hovland has looked great since the break, in four starts he has an average finish of 16th. Now he does not have any course history at this event, but he is a great stat fit. If he had course history he would be the starting put of most of our builds. But this is going to be a week where we end up on a high tier play at the end of our GPP builds, and hope that player top 10s. Hovland has a great shot to continue his recent form this week.
Gary Woodland: The nice part about Woodland is that I have been able to see him play a lot. He has not played poorly, and it truly seems like he is a small fix away from dominating a golf course. This week it comes together well for the 3 ranked player in the model. He does not have a weakness in his game, and this is a course where he has made 3 straight cuts. I fully expect Woodland to make the cut. I want to put him in my cash builds and main builds, but I typically do not want a missed cut in a players prior event. Still Woodland shot under par, so if you end up on him in your cash build I am fine with it.
Adam Hadwin: Hadwin finally showed the upside that his stats have been telling us he has with his top 15 finish last week. I really think he can carry that momentum into this week. Instead of just being a cut maker maybe he can contend for the title. Either way at this price point he is too cheap. Hadwin is a top 5 stat fit, in great recent form, and has made 3 out of 4 cuts here in the last 4 years. At his price we just can't pass that up.
Sungjae Im: Im is sort of struggling right now, but he is still a guy that will grind out a made cut if he has too. I wish he was cheaper but I am fine with him as a play.
Joel Dahmen: Dahmen has made 9 straight cuts on tour, and he has mixed in a ton of top 20 finishes while doing so. He ranks out 13th in strokes gained tee to green, and made the cut at this course last year in his only start. I do think he is priced up slightly too much, but I still like him as a play.
Brian Stuard: Stuard is checking all the boxes, especially given his price point. He is a fine stat fit, has 4 straight made cuts on tour, and at this course. This is exactly what we want to see in a play. Draftkings is truly forcing us into this play this week!
Mark Hubbard: Hubbard has now made 4 straight cuts in a row, he is a decent stat fit, the only problem with him this week is his course history, he has only played this course once in the last 4 years where he had a missed cut. Still I expect him to make the cut and finish around T30.
Nick Taylor: Taylor will be making his first start since the break, which is probably why he is priced this low. Taylor has already shown winning upside this season. Taylor is a great stat fit ranking top 15 this week. He did make the cut in his only start at this event. I would not be suprised if he missed to cut, or if he top 10'd.
Matt NeSmith: NeSmith is a similar play to Taylor this week, he is a great stat fit ranking top 20. Before his missed cut he and Roc Redman were our go to value plays. After a week off I am fine jumping back onto NeSmtih for a made cut.
Stat Pull:
MODEL RANKING:
Both are available on the Website: https://www.ninetofivesports.com/pgastatsheet
PLAYER POOL:
Player Pool Breakdown: The player pool this week is adjusted to be riskier thus more upside.
Player Pool is rank in order this week.
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Stuard, Sungjae, Hubbard, Hadwin, Hovland, Cantlay, Dahmen
GPP: Champ, Scheffler, Bubba, Trahan(DEEP), N. Taylor
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
@Jason, I have Poulter listed as a "Low Exposure Play" There are just so many alike plays like him in that price range this week. Some of those players are cut makers with a lack of upside, and some of those players are high upside, with spotty form!
no luv for poulter ? thought hed be right up your alley. my succker/sleeper this week is j b holmes fresh out of the gate new elbow and all
Jason, It is a price point thing, made cut for a guy that could top 20. He has a higher likelihood of others around him to make the cut. I agree I wish there was more appeal with him this week.
ok i can get behind , and i have most of your plays but grillo ?why bother
Doron, I like Niemann a decent amount, actually put in the 925 Chat ( that you will be added into tomorrow morning) that I liked Niemann he is a decent stat fit, in good current form, and in good recent form. Grillo is risky, and doesn't hold great upside but I still like him as a play. Armour and Burns I am not on this week!