Rocket Classic 2026: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
- Jul 28
- 9 min read
The Rocket Classic is looking like another solid week, as we are getting a lot of great values, and plenty of great studs. It won't be a problem of being on the best golfers rather the issue is being on the best golfers in the correct lineups. It is a week much last the last few where we know who to be on, and we know their will be a few random missed cuts, but the players that end up making the cut will finish top 10 or so. This is all about being on the correct combination of players in our builds rather than having specific players that are must plays. For betting I do think this ends up being a more top heavy week, with a little bit of value sprinkled in. To me if the studs like Clark, Xander, Si Woo, Gotterup, and Young bring their A game one of them will win.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow/Green
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
Again this does end up being an appealing week to me, but the concern is just being on the wrong lineup path for a main build. For example I really like the idea of starting Cameron Young, and Chris Gotterup as I feel like they are the safest pay ups that also have a lot of upside. But at the same time the more balanced build is very appealing. The lineup below is an example of maybe getting to a little bit of recency bias. I like the build a lot but at the same time I could chase Ewart who is a cheaper value to then get up to Hisatsune, Conners, or RNP who I also really like. The fair and balanced build is also very appealing.
The lineup below is a lineup in which we are getting to very few missed cuts on the season, and very few missed cuts recently. Hideki, and Henley should be safe, Gerard, and Bridgeman project to be some of the safer clicks given their price, and Kohles I am just going to continue to get to until he lets us down. So a lot of different lineup paths this week, and to me that could be the issue.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie or Better % (BoB) Key Stat 1
Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 2
Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 3
Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP) Key Stat 4
Par 5 Scoring (Par 5) Key Stat 5
This is a course where distance can play a big factor, but it ends up being more of an accuracy course for the no long hitters, it is a unique course in that regard. We just need to look at stats that suggest golfers will hit good straight shots.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2025, 2024, 2023, and 2022 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 Years Course History
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
Weather is not an issue this week.
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
I like the top 7 more specifically the top 5 to be good first round leader bets.
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
The only bet I somewhat like for 3 Balls is Ricky Castillo to win his group. It is only a slight edge. The rest of the bets are all basically correctly valued.
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
NA
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet
Outright Bets:
2024 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
These bets all make a lot of sense, and really I think we should probably get to all of them, not really sure I see a point in getting "cute" this week. I will get to all of them and then Ryan Gerard 38/1 odds, and Jacob Bridge 48/1 odds, and then I can't not be on Ben Kohles again this week. He is around 75/1 odds.
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
Another week of limited Core Plays which does tend to show us that their could be more variance, and this does echo a little bit of my concern for the week, but yea Henley looks like a solid play. His worst metric is his stat fit but that is mostly due to him being pretty bad to start the season, lately he has been playing well, and that is what we would be chasing. I like Gotterup, and Young more, but Henley makes for a great lineup starting point, and someone that if you have the salary to get up to Gotterup and Young you can do so.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
You will see later on that Jake Knapp is getting a lot of steam for his early projected ownership, if he ends up being chalk I would be a little annoyed because he is someone that I like for GPPs but if he is chalk that means we would be likely to get Ben Griffin, Hideki, and Ryan Gerard as great leverage plays and that would be the obvious choice to use those golfers as great leverage plays over Knapp.
Hideki has been playing great golf lately ranks out 4th in the field in form. He played at this event last year finished 13th. He isn't the best stat fit which is a concern but overall I really do like this price for him.
Ben Griffin is a golfer I struggle with a little bit this week because he isn't a bad stat fit but not great, and other than that he looks solid. He has made the cut here in 3 straight starts, he has made 4 straight cuts in a row on the PGA Tour as well. You could make a lineup with Hideki, Henley, and Griffin as your starting points love it.
You could then get to Ryan Gerard who is surprisingly well priced. Gerard ranks out 8th in the field in form, and is the 2nd best stat fit in the field, he has made two straight cuts at this track as well. I really like him as a click. The one think I dislike is that his best finish here is a 41st place finish. Maybe this course doesn't fit his eye, but maybe the updates to the course (which I don't think will be a big factor) will end up helping him.
Bezuidenhout is a weird one, the only "bad" start recently was at the Corales where he has a terrible final round. Besides that he has been playing great golf making 6 straight cuts in a row which half of them being around top 20 finishes. He is a very cheap option that should make the cut.
Cameron Young, and Chris Gotterup are my two favorite plays for this one. Both golfers have played this course 3 times, and both golfers are top 5 stat fits in the field. They rank out 2nd, and 3rd in recent form as well. I am very thankful that they are properly priced and not juiced up due to the weakness of the field.
The question on the week ends up being go two studs or go more fair and balanced.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Jacob Bridgeman is one of my favorite clicks this week. He has good course history finishing 26th, and 31st. He is a great stat fit ranking out 9th in the field with no weaknesses stat fit wise, and the form has been very solid this whole season, but more specifically lately. I think he makes for a good top 20 bet 2/1 or made cut bet.
i view Si Woo Kim, Xander, and JJ Spaun as 3 golfers we have to have exposure to as they hold a lot of upside, but if any of them are chalk it would make sense to be underweight on them. Overall though I will likely just match their ownerships in GPPs.
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