U.S. Open 2026: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
- Jun 16
- 10 min read
Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Green
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
The pricing this makes this week extremely appealing, we are getting a lot of elite golfers at cheap price tags. This should be a week that ends up being a very good week. The only slight issue is the potential wind. Early in the week it was very windy at the course, and that is driving around of content around the wind, but right now as it currently sits the winds seems to be around 15 mph which does start to change the scoring but nothing that completely changes are strategy for the week. Still this will be something to pay attention on Wednesday night to see if there are going to be any potential weather advantages.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Key Stats are based on the past U.S. Opens as well as the 2018 US Open when the tournament was played at the same course it is this week.
Birdie to Bogey Ratio (B2B) Key Stat 1
Driving Distance (DD) Key Stat 2
Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 3
Strokes Gained Approach (GIR) Key Stat 4
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Due to it being the U.S. Open we do not have a ton of course history we really only have 2018 which I do think will matter, it's never a bad thing to have course experience. Then we are looking at this years PGA Championship, and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am as well as the 2025 U.S. Open as well. All of those courses tend to have a lot of similarities to the setup what we are expecting this week.
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
Again the really bad weather projects for Wednesday right now, sure that could change but right now all the buzz around the wind in the industry seems to be overplayed. That being said weather can change, and the slight rain that is in the mix could also create a little bit of variance, all-in-all though its looks like we are going to get lucky with the weather.
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
Keith Mitchell 90/1
Cameron Young 33/1
Kurt Kitayama 70/1
Si Woo Kim 45/1
Sam Burns 45/1
Rory 25/1
Scottie 18/1
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Patrick Cantlay +217
John Parry +219
Tom Kim +308
Jake Knapp +240
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet
Ben Kohles over Matt McCarty 3/1
Jake Knapp over Chris Kirk 2.5/1
Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
I was not originally going to be on Cameron Young but given that the data likes him as an outright bet he can make the card.
Bets:
Matt Fitzpatrick 22/1
Sam Burns 40/1
Kurt Kitayama 90/1
Xander 18/1
Cameron Young 20/1
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
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