NFL DFS: Week 15 Writeup

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UPDATES:

Fields, Huntley, Guyton, Williams - OUT

With this news I do not mind Josh Johnson at min price. All he needs to do is to score a td and he is going to hit value.

With Tyler Huntley OUT I do like Joe Burrow as a safe pay down play. If you have to pay down for him that is fine.

At TE I am adding in Dallas Goedert and Tyler Kroft.

Josh Palmer is an elite value. I like using him with the chargers stacks. I still like Berrios and Treadwell more.

PREVIEW:

As I started to get into my deep dives for this slate the past two days we started to get a lot of injury/COVID news so I figured it would be best to wait and see where all the news landed. Well on the Saturday slate we had a game postponed to Tuesday. We also had two games that were scheduled for the main slate postponed as well. All in all though most of the players that I wanted to be on are still in play.

This slate as a whole is not the best slate because DK finally got around to pricing up a lot of the players that we have been targeting this whole season. Still, we have a lot of quality value plays so making a good lineup should not be that hard.

We have to pay down at RB simply because there's a lack of good RB plays on the slate and with some stud WRs, and TEs available it just makes sense to me to pay down at RB rather than force in a specific RB play.

At QB this week if you can pay up for Kyler Murray or Aaron Rodgers that would be the route that I would go. I think both will easily be able to get to 20 DK points and thus both should help you be able to cash. Those two are the obvious plays on the slate. Now lets get into the less obvious plays.

Jimmy G - Mid Exposure - $5,800: With Elijah Mitchell OUT the Niners decided to throw the ball a little bit more and thus Jimmy G was able to get to 20 DK points. He has been really efficient in terms of DK points scored given the amount of passing attempts that he has had so with a slight increase in passing attempts again this week he should be able to easily hit value again. I would rather pay up or down though than play Jimmy G in cash.

Tyler Huntley - Mid Exposure - $5,400: I really like Huntley as a play and that might be due to how much money he won us during the preseason but the reason why he won us that money is how much he runs the ball. He has scored 4, and 4.5 DK points just on his legs alone in the two games that he has gotten a lot of snaps in. In those games, he threw the ball 38, and 36 times. Scoring 11.76, and 17.3 DK points. Personally, I see him scoring around 16 DK points this week, but he could easily get a rushing TD as well. He is a good play at this price point.

Davis Mills - Low Exposure - $5,400: Last week in the Defensive part of the writeup I said that I did like the Seahawks, but noted that Davis Miss has been really hit or miss. He has 3 games of over 20 DK points and 5 games of under 10 DK points. Nothing has been in between for him. With that, he becomes a solid GPP play. The thing with him is that his two best weeks have come in his two worst matchups. This tells me that we can't predict what he will do just know that he could randomly have a good week.

This week both Melvin Gordon and JaVonte Williams are Questionable. If one of them were to sit and the other was to play lock in the other.

Myles Gaskin - Mid Exposure - $5,600: I hesitate to say that Myles Gaskin is a good play this week because he is the one RB this year that has had some big weeks even though he has sucked. Honestly, Gaskin based on the film this year should not be a starting RB in the league. There are many third-string RBs that would be dominating with his workload. But the Phins are banged up on offense, and he should get another big workload. He is going against the Jets in which he put up 18.6 DK points against in week 11. At this price point he in this matchup with a lot of the Phins offense OUT with COVID we may just be forced into playing him.

AJ Dillion - $5,700 - Mid Exposure: AJ Dillion has been very good as a runner this season, and he continues to get a lot of touches each game. Last week was his first week without in catch in the last 4 weeks that is simply because well when he was in they were just running the ball. 15 carries for 71 yards. I sort of expect that same workload this week but I think that he will get a TD this week.

James Robinson - $5,400 - High Exposure: Carlos Hyde OUT, Urban Meyer FIRED, easy matchup, interim HC saying that Robinson is their best offensive weapon, the stars are aligning for Robinson to be used as a workhorse RB, and to easily hit value at this price point. All Robinson comes down to as a play is if he is going to be on the field, and if he is on the field I think that he easily hits value. He also has a good chance to score 20 DK points this week.

Other Plays I like: Jeff Wilson Jr, Royce Freeman, Ameer Abdullah

I will be paying up at WR this week due to the value that we get at the RB spot. I will simply be locking in DaVante Adams into my cash builds, and most likely will be doing the same with CeeDee Lamb. Lamb should get at least 10 targets this week, and he scored 18.8 DK points against the Giants in week 5. I also do like Dionte Johnson, and Deebo Samuel this week but they are finally getting price up to where we have to think about it again.

Amari Cooper - $6,400 - Mid Exposure: The problem with playing Lamb is that you can get Amari for 1K cheaper, and honestly that might just be the route to go. Cooper was reported to be back fully healthy last week and he proved it by getting 7 targets, and converting that into 16.1 DK points. In week 5 against the Giants Cooper had 15 DK points. I think we can project him to score right around the number again.

Brandon Aiyuk - $6,300 - Low Exposure: Aiyuk has slowly been getting a lot of the plays that Deebo Samuel was getting early on in the season, and so far this past month he has dominated. He has scored 18.6, 8.5, 12.5, and 21.5 DK points. My thought is that with Mitchell OUT again this week is that the Niners will throw the ball more. As a result, a player like Aiyuk would hold some more value.

Chase Claypool - $5,900 - Mid Exposure: Chase Claypool at this price point in this matchup is a fricken steal but the issue is that we do not know if the Steelers are going to "discipline" him at all for his dumb mistakes in last weeks game. I doubt that they will since this is a must-win game but I did think that was note-worthy. Claypool should see around 8 targets for 5 receptions and 60 yards. This would make him a quality play in cash.

DaVante Parker - $4,300 - Core Play: With Jaylen Waddle OUT this week, and a lot of other offensive weapons for the Phins I think that will just mean that Parker gets targeted a lot. Parker has only had one game where he did not see 7 or more targets and that was last week. He was still able to score double-digit DK points though. At this price point, he has hit value in every single game. I fully expect him to hit value again this week.

Braxton Berrios - $3,200 - Mid Exposure: If you're searching for value this week I really like Braxton Berrios. He did not play a lot of snaps last week only getting around 40% of the snaps but he did get 10 targets. As a result, he scored 11.2 DK points. Honestly, I just think he is a good player that should see the field more. I am hoping that the coaching staff sees that as well.

Laquan Treadwell - $3,300 - Mid Exposure: Well it is tough to say who is going to be getting a lot of snaps this week at WR for the Jags with the new coaching staff but I do feel like Treadwell will continue to get a majority of the snaps as he continues to play like their best WR. He has 3X'd at his price point each of the last 3 weeks. He is just too cheap for someone that will likely hit value again.

Other WRs I like: Shepard, Rondale Moore, AJ Green Rashard Bateman, Allen Lazar

Tight End:

George Kittle has just been going OFF the last 2 weeks, and once again with the Niners mostly continue to throw the ball a lot that makes George Kittle firmly in play for another massive week. I think that if you can fit him into your builds that you should.

Last week with TJ Hockenson OUT I thought Brock Wright would be the TE one for the Lions but it was Shane Zylstra getting a majority of the snaps, and getting 6 targets. Like his brother Brandon Zylstra, Shane was a start football player in D2 football on my college rivals squad Minnesota State. So there might be a little bias for me. Shane is a former WR turned TE, and it would not shock me to see him easily hit value at this price point.

In conclusion either pay up for Kittle or pay down for Zylstra.

You guys know the routine by now I will be paying down at D, and I think that both the Carolina Panthers and the Jets will not go negative this week. The Panthers are a pretty strong D as a whole and the Bills have somewhat struggled recently.

The Jets were able to score 2 DK points against the Phins in week 11.

Stacks:

First Look Build: