Austin Championship 2026: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
Jumping into a quick straightforward breakdown of the Austin Championship. Few plays, simple bets, and easy builds.
Also I just pushed a recent update to the website, the NineToFive Sports Fantasy Golf Hub. This is a pre-tournament golf tool that users can use for research, DFS, and betting tips. This is the first rollout version of the tool, so there might be some slight errors. For instance I realized the logic for Ownership Leverage needs to be updated for no-cut events (inside the Fantasy Golf Hub; still working at the normal location). This week is a standard cut event (top 65 + ties), so that should not be the issue here. You have also probably noticed updates to the Leaderboard / Showdown page (not the PGA Leader Board), and the Lineup Builder. I will hopefully be getting out a video soon covering all of those updates. This can be found by going to the Member Tools page. https://www.ninetofivesports.com/member-tools
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
I like this week for more studs and duds based builds. Where it is a bit top heavy, but we will be able to get enough quality cheap plays to make it work.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Key stats are more general key stats since this is a new course / tournament.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2025, 2024, 2023, and 2022 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Comp Course History
Truist Championship
Cognizant Classic
Genesis Invite
Wyndham Championship
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top
5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
Doug Ghim 33/1
Seamus Power 50/1
Blades Brown 40/1
Trace Crowe 70/1
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
Outright Bets:
2024 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
JL Smith
Doug Ghim
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
Hey we have some Core Plays this week! I do think that Koivun basically needs to win at his price as we are getting other quality plays that are cheaper, again I like getting to 3 studs this week and he makes that tough.
I do really like Jordan Smith at this price, 10 straight made cuts two top 10 finishes recently, great stat fit, good comp course history. Just a great play across the board for DFS, and like him for a top 20 bet at around +175
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
The biggest issues with Blades is his price, and that he is coming in off of a win. I do expect him to still play well this week, but I would rather get to Kouivun, Smith, Ghim, and Kohles first.
Ghim has the local ties playing college here. He is in the best form in the field, and is a great specialist. It would be a bit shocking to see him not in contention to win on Sunday.
Kohles finally got priced (maybe) correctly. He is playing great golf why quit now.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
I really like Chris Kirk and Zach Bachou this week. Kirk has been playing great golf, 2nd in the field in form, and should find himself in contention on Sunday. Bachou is a little more hit or miss but I do think him being on his game this week would lead to the potential for him to win.
Smotherman is obviously red hot but prior to his two wins there was not much there, so if he starts to fall off a bit that would not be shocking still I like him.
Castillo feels a bit overpriced for what I think he is which is just a made cut play.
Novak, and Horschel I view more as lineup fillers.
Sherwood I am happy to get to at his price. He is someone that has played well on the KFT. Playing a golfer like him allows you to pay up for other stud golfers.
Data Tag: Low Exposure
Want to read more?
Subscribe to ninetofivesports.com to keep reading this exclusive post.
