This wildcard weekend is going to be a slate that I attack mostly in the Showdown and I think I will either to a separate write up or a video covering the showdown slates.
Slate Confidence Rating: Red - Yellow
· Patrick Mahomes - $7,500: I just do not see myself paying $900 extra to get Jackson when I can get Mahomes in a better matchup that he has already put 20DK points up against. Now the flip side of that is why not just play Watson he also went off in this matchup and is $800 cheaper than Mahomes. That is a very good point, and I think we should do that in builds. But if we are talking safety, we are talking Mahomes. He will score 20 DK points in this matchup and could score 30. The same can be said for Watson, I just think it is more likely that Mahomes goes off.
· Aaron Rodgers - $6,500 (Mid Exposure Play): Same situation above where both QBs in this game could have a big game, but I like Rodgers the most! He really had a bad game against DET in week 7 and still put up 23 DK points. Now before that, he had struggled as well. But this was mostly due to the game plan. I feel like the Rodgers, Adams, and Graham stack is going to be low owned, and high scoring! He will throw the ball at least 30 times in this one, and it will just be a matter of if players (Graham) can catch the passes.
· Ryan Tannehill - $5,400 (Mid Exposure Play): Last week the Titans had a game plan to beat the Patriots, and that was to run, run, run resulting in TannE only throwing the ball 15 times. This should not be the case against the Ravens. The Ravens should be able to put up points which will mean that Tannehill will have to throw, and he may have to throw the ball 40 times. If that does happen (which seems likely) he will exceed or match this price point.
*I will be fading Henry, and hoping to get lucky. Aaron Jones will also be a fade. With Jamaal Williams back his price is too high. Ingram could break the slate at lower ownership because of his questionable tag. Carlos Hyde is another TD or bust play this week. He did, however, go for 22 DK points against the Chiefs in week 6. Because I am fading Henry, Dalvin Cook will be the RB I would pay up for.
· Damien Williams - $6,000 (Mid Exposure Play): The DFS community finally seemed to figure it out about D Will. Yes we will keep playing him this week even at this price point. He should get around 17 opportunities with a high likelihood of a score.
· Raheem Mostert - $5,800 (Mid Exposure Play): Mostert has been over 11 six straight weeks, mixing in three 20 plus DK performances. I like the price point of Mostert knowing that he could get to 20 + any given week.
· Justice Hill - $3,900 (Low Exposure Play): This will only be a play if Ingram sits, because I think he will get around 10 opportunities which could result in 3 catches, and possibly a big play.
WR this week is a lot like last week, where for the most part you should just be playing whichever WR correlates the most with the QB you have. But I really like the idea of paying up for both Adams, and Hill on this slate. But if I had to choose 1 I would choose Hill. Hill put of 25 DK points in week 6 against the Texans. If you do the Rodgers stack I mentioned above you should run it back with one of the Seahawks WRs. The one I would choose this week is Tyler Lockett. Deebo Samuel is a big play waiting to happen this week against the Vikings who just always seem to give up big plays. Samuel has gone for double-digit fantasy points in 7 out of his last 8 games. Call be crazy but I still like Corey Davis a lot this week as a value play. Like I said earlier I think the Titans will have to throw the ball a lot in this one, and if they do Davis will get the targets this week.
If I am paying up for a tight end it will be Kittle and not Kelce. Kittle is just more consistent. If Mark Andrews is out I like Hayden Hurst a lot. Hurst could also make for a great captain pick on the showdown slate. Jimmy Graham will be my most owned tight end which is scary because he has been brutal this year. I love the matchup, and I love the targets he has been getting.
If the weather is bad for the Packers / Seahawks game sure you can go that route and play one of those defenses. That makes a lot of sense. If we can't do that I will probably just punt at D this week.
*This is the Cash Build that I am on right now as of posting this on Friday. News will change the lineup most likely, and we will have to make changes where we see fit.