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NFL DFS: Full Slate Breakdown - Week 3

Game By Game Breakdown - DFS - Betting

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Steelers vs Browns - Thursday Night:


Bets:

Steelers +4

Amari Cooper over 4.5 +105

Chase Claypool over 3.5 -145

Najee Harris over 3.5 +135


Game Preview:

Last week the Browns really gave away that game to the Jets, you had Kareem Hunt running out of bounce twice to stop the clock before it could get to the two-minute warning, and then you have Nick Chubb scoring a TD when he simply could have went down. Basically, if the Browns make one of those easy plays, they win, but they are the Browns so they lost.


Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb are this team though, Hunt averaging 14 OPR per game, and Chubb averaging 22 OPR all while getting around 533 % of the snaps. If the Browns are to win this game it will be because of these two.


For pass catches David Njoku has been on the field a lot but has not been very productive. You have Amari Cooper who was open a lot in week one, but was not targeted, and then we saw that get corrected in week 2 where he had 10 targets. He should be the leader in targets for this team. DPJ could be a value on this slate, but he is not someone that I love or someone that I want to target.


The Steelers have two players I really like in Najee Harris who put together a great second half last week, and Dionte Johnson who is just a consistent fantasy producer each and every week. The volume should be there for both of them.


The problem with both teams is the QB play has not been good enough to sustain two pass catchers, especially when the RBs are involved in the passing game.


Top Plays:

Dionte Johnson:

Johnson is not that highly-priced on this slate which makes him easy to fit into your builds. Johnson has seen 10, and 12 targets the past two weeks which as we have learned is what we should expect from Johnson. He has is currently averaging 13.1 DK points, and I see him being able to get to that again this week.


Chase Claypool has had a few designed plays each game he could be in play as well but I do not love his price point.


Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb:

If you're playing both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt on this slate, which I think we should do then you will probably want to play one of the defenses. Both of these players should be able to get to 10+ DK points in this game. Both should be safe and plays well well.


Najee Harris:

Harris played poorly in the first game in a half and then something clicked in the second half. Running hard, making plays, and somewhat putting the team on his back. He will need to do that again tonight.




Ravens vs Patriots:

Bets:

Ravens -2.5


Game Preview:

Watching back the Ravens vs Miami game the Ravens D was not as bad as I thought, I mean they did give up a lot of points, but it was really Tua playing elite for the Phins that was the biggest difference.


The Patriots have not looked the best on offense but they still found a way to get the win last week. My biggest issue with the Patriots this week is that all of the players that we would want to big on are all very cheap, Mac Jones is only 5.1, Damien Harris 5.6, Jakobi Meyers 5.0, and Nelson Agholor is 4.1. All of them are firmly in play given that price point.


The Patriots' defense played well last week, and only gave up minimal points in week 1. They should be able to hinder the offensive production for the Ravens.


Matchup to watch Jalen Mills vs Rashad Bateman: Mills gave up 7 REC, 79 yds and a TD last week. Last week Bateman had 4 REC, 108 yds plus a TD.


Stevenson (62%) actually out-snapped Harris (40%) which is strange because Harris has been the better back through two weeks by a decent margin. The Ravens did give up 4.8 YPC so one of these two could hold some value.


Top Plays:

Mac Jones - Core Play - $5,100:

Mac Jones is super cheap for this matchup. At this price point you would think that he should be able to hit value. Last week Tua had 469 yds and 6 TDs. Now that was mostly due to Tua playing extremely well, and Tyreek and Waddle dominating. The Patriots do not really have that guy. Last week Mac had 252 yds and a TD. if he can do that again but get a few more yards, or another TD he will be able to hit value. Remember last week he did that against the Steelers who just dominated Joe Borrow in week 1.


Mark Andrews - Low Exposure - $6,900:

After a good week he was priced up to where he should be for the season around the 7K price point range. This week the matchup is a little bit more difficult, and the Patriots D has done a good job of keeping everything in front out them. This should mean that Andrews will get a decent amount of REC but the yards, and TD upside will be limited.


Jakobi Meyers - Core Exposure - $5,000 + Nelson Agholor - Stack - $4,100:

Jakobi Meyers should be an elite play on this slate. He has played the most snaps out of any Patriots skills player at 84.8% of the snaps. He has been targeted 19 total times this season and has scored over 10 DK points both games. At the very least he should be able to hit value. He on paper is a very safe play.


Nelson Agholor is a bit more difficult of a play. He only played on 50% of the snaps, but really dominated when he was on the field. This isn't just looking at stats and saying he played well, on film he was running hard, and playing aggressively, he was the one making the plays, and if it weren't for Agholor stepping up last week the Pats do not win last week.


You would think Agholor would take some snaps away from Parker who played in 76% of the snaps last week, but has only seen one target his way thus far this season.


Colts vs Chiefs

Bets:

Chiefs -5.5


Game Preview:

The Colts, and by Colts I really mean Matt Ryan have looked terrible thus far this season. I know the Chiefs D is not the best so this should be a "get right" spot for Matt Ryan and the rest of this offense. They will most likely be getting back Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman so that should help as well.


Last week Juju was shut down by Bruce Callahan as expected. He should have a much better game in this one. A big thing that we need to watch for is the status on Mecole Hardman. If he sits preseason stud Justin Watson could be in play as a value play. (Min price)


MVS leads (tied with Kelce) for most snaps among skills players. He sucks but it is still worth nothing.


In week two Jerick McKinnon actually out-snapped CEH by 2 snaps. In week one CEH and McKinnon played the same snaps. These two are in a timeshare, and although the ball has went CEH's way for TDs, you could easily see that switch again this week.


Both Ashton Dulin, and Alec Pierce could be fine value plays in this game.


CB L'Jarius Sneed gave up 8 REC, 98 yds, and a TD last week.

CB Jaylen Watson played great getting a pick-six, only allowing 3 REC for 25 yds on 8 targets.


JT - $9,000 - Mid Exposure:

Should be able to have a better game in this one he is averaging over 5.5 YPC. He just needs the ball more. Last week he only had 9 carries. The biggest problem with this is that the Chiefs have given up points to opposing RBs but a lot of this has been in the passing game not so much in the rushing game.



Saints vs Panthers

Bets:

-2.5


Game Preview:

Both teams look terrible, Baker Mayfield has been Matt Ryan with speed, which is not good. Winston has not looked that much better as well, but I chalk this more up to the Bucs D being great.


Now the Panthers D has been great as well. Brian Burns himself had 2 sacks and 6 pressure. The D had 3 sacks total, and 9 QB hits. So Winston could be under pressure again.


Jarivs Landry, Michael Thomas, and Chris Olave:

The problem is that all three of this WRs are solid, and anyone of these WRs could have a great game. Chris Olave was open a lot last week but him and Winston were only able to connect on 5 of their 13 targets. Michael Thomas had a slow but steady game, and also found the endzone. Jarvis Landry had a quite game, but he should still be a safe play given his price point.


Shi Smith - Value Play - $3,000:

Smith has been playing 70% of the snaps but had two REC. Last week he did have 6 targets, however. He is open, Baker just needs to be able to him. He could be a value play at WR that gets 10 DK points. With Lattimore mostly likely covering Moore, and Anderson that should mean that Smith will get those targets again this week.



Texans vs Bears

Bets:

HOU +3


Game Preview:

Strangely I am very excited for this game. The Bears are looking to get their offense back on track, and the Texans are looking to get their first victory.


Last week Denver ran it over 31 times for 149 yards, in week 1 JT had over 150 rushing yards. The Bears should be able to run on them with David Montgomery, and even Justin Fields. Montgomery is at a cheap price tag this week as well.


On the flip side Dameon Pierce was very impressive last week rushing the ball 15 times for 69 yards total. The big thing is that he played in over 60% of the snaps as well. Now the Bears were able to stop the inside runs from AJ Dilion last week but Aaron Jones dominated rushing the ball for 132 yards at 8.8 ypc.


The Bears D as a whole was still impressive and was still able to get pressure getting 3 sacks in this game. Which is the amount of sacks the Texans gave up last week.


In summary, we want to target the RBs in this game.


Note fields was sacked 3 times on 12 DROP BACKS! Insane! Wilson was hit 7 times, and sacked 3 times.


Dameon Pierce - Mid Exposure - $5,000:

I loved the snap count for Pierce playing in over 60% of the snaps for the Texans last week. Getting 16 total touches for 77 yards. This matchup with the Bears should be an easier one than the previous two matchups thus this is a solid value play this week.


David Montgomery - Core Play - $5,900:

Playing the late game on Sunday Montgomery did not see his price point increase after a great game, and now with a great matchup, this week like it should have. He is an easy play this week gave his volume, and his ability. The offense runs through Montgomery, and given the matchup, he should be able to have a great game.


I do think that this will be a "Get Right" spot for Darnell Mooney.


Bills vs Phins

Bets:

Buf -5.5


Game Preview:

If these two teams play the same way they have through the first two weeks the Bills should blow out the Phins. Don't get me run thy Phins are a solid team, but the Bills are elite.


For the Phins we did see Mostert be the lead RB which is something after watching week 1's film I somewhat expected to happen, and it did. I could see that being the case again this week, they want to play with speed, and he brings that more so than does Edmonds.


I do think that this will be a game that Tua struggles in that is just how great the Bills have looked thus far. Waddle or Hill will do well, I do not see both of them doing well.


On the flip side Diggs, and Gabe Davis should both firmly be in play. This is going to be a high scoring game, and the Phins did just give up a lot of passing / yards to a similar QB last week in Lamar Jackson. Josh Allen should not have an issue doing well this week.


Diggs and Gabe Davis:

Bateman, Robinson, and Duvernay all had great games like week against the Phins, which just in itself should tell you how well Diggs and Davis should do in this pass-heavy offense. Diggs was able to feast with Gabe Davis out, but he will still have a great game this week against the Phins. Xavien Howard shutdown Rashad Bateman last week minus one slant play that was a perfect play call that went for a long TD.


Mostert - Low Exposure $4,500:

I think the game plan this week defensively for the Bills is actually going to get pressure on Tua, do not let him get off the quick easy routes, if he beats you with an underthrown deep ball so be it. With that this could lead to a few rushing attempts or screens to the RB going for huge yards. I am not saying go crazy with this but I am saying I could see Mostert having a great game in a high-scoring game.


Josh Allen - $8,200 - Core Play:

Allen should almost be locked into getting 30 DK points, as he has the first two weeks of the season. I would argue this will be his easiest matchup of the year thus far, especially since Gabe Davis will be active in this one.


LIONS VS VIKINGS


Bets:

Lions +205


Game Preview:

Personally, IDK I just do not think the Vikings are all that good this season. Sure they beat the Packers in week 1, but they go destroyed by the Eagles in week 2. On the flip side the Lions lost to the Eagles by only three points and just be the Commanders. You could argue the Qbs are around the same talent level, the RB1s are around the same talent level, and as whole the passing units are around the same talent level. (TEs included)... This high-scoring game will come down to who has the better defense, and personally, I think that is the Lions. But that is still a big wait and see.


One thing that stood out when watching film is that DJ Chark should have had a much better game. He dropped an underthrown TD, then Goff missed him twice, another that could have been a TD. So it would not be too shocking to see Chark have a bounce back game.


Justin Jefferson + St Brown:

Now I think that ARSB is a little bit overrated, you put someone like Darnell Mooney in this offense and he is producing as well. But volume is king, and he is producing with that volume getting 12 targets the past two weeks for 24 on the season. This is insane usage, and something that will most likely not continue throughout the season. For now it will as the Vikings are not a great pass defense, just giving up 333 yds to Jalen Hurts last week.


On the flip side we know for sure that Justin Jefferson is elite, although against PHI he only had 10.8 DK points which I get does not make too much sense because ARSB also dominated against the Eagles. The Lions having a great scheme, whereas the Vikings are still trying to figure what they want to do. Plus Cousins was just terrible in primetime yet again. Jefferson and ARSB make for great starting points in a game stack


Dalvin Cook - $7,900 - High Exposure

Cook is a little bit of a tough sell this week as he only rushed the ball last week 6 times. He did have 6 targets however. Cook should be in for a much bigger game this week against the Lions who have given up a lot of rushing yards, and a lot of receptions.


Irv Smith Jr - $3,100 - High Exposure:

Smith should see his snaps increase once again this week, and if they do he should be a great play. Last week he had a TD, and even could have had another. He saw 8 targets scoring 14.6 DK points. He is a cheap way to try and game stack this game.


Jets vs Bengals

Bets:

NYJ +220


Game Preview:

Remember last post-season when the Bengals were outplayed in every single playoff game yet found a way to win? Well it seems that strategy has finally caught up to them. They face a team that used that very same strategy last week to get a win. Now the Jets are basically a very similar version to that as the Bengals. An underrated defense, and an offense that has a lot of firepower, as long as the QB is playing well.


It might sound like I am bashing the Bengals here and I am, but I am really trying to put some emphasis on just how impressive the Jets offense has been thus far. Michael Carter, and Bryce Hall have been playing great. Corey Davis, Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, and Braxton Berrios have all been getting open and having great games. I am excited to see what this team can do once Zach Wilson is back healthy and active.


Personally, I think this game could be pretty high scoring, and is a game that I want to stack.


Now Wilson is getting a lot of hype for the game he had, as he should be Elijah Moore was open just as often, just the ball did not go his way. I think that this will get corrected.


Elijah Moore - $5,000 - Low Exposure:

With the game Wilson had, I think he will draw more attention from the defense. This should lead to Moore getting a few more passes his way. Like I said earlier he was open A LOT! The ball just did not come his way, after watching film I think Flacco will see this and get it corrected this week.


Tee Higgins and Jamar Chase - Stacks:

I think that both of these players are going to get targeted heavily in this game like they were in week 2. Higgins getting 10 targets and Chase getting 9. I do think this game could be more of a shootout, which is why I like both of them.


Tyler Conklin - High Exposure - $3,800:

Conklin keeps playing a lot getting over 90% of the snaps on offense, and getting 15 total targets thus far through two games scoring over 10 DK points in both games.



Titans vs Raiders

Bets:

NA


Game Preview:

This is a game that I do not want to bet on at all, because if the Titans play the way they have thus far this season the Raiders will win, but I fully expect the Titans to come out, playing a lot better, and having a much better game plan to get Derrick Henry going. So this game is a toss up for me mostly.


Derrick Henry - $8,100 - Low Exposure:

I hate the price point of Henry in this one, but he gets a great matchup which is easily the best one that he has had thus far this season. He ran the ball 21 times for 82 yards in week one which is solid. He just did not score a TD. He makes a lot more sense as a play on FD this week as he is much more of a TD-dependent play. But I can see Henry getting 100 rushing yards plus a TD this week.


Last week vegas gave up 28 carries for 143 yds for 5.1 ypc.


Derek Carr -$5,900 - High Exposure:

Carr has been solid through two weeks in terms of DFS production at this price point scoring 16.8 DK points in week one, and then 18.98 DK points in week 2. This week he gets his easiest matchup thus far, and I would hope that he would finally be able to get to 20 DK points.


If Carr is a good play that means that Adams will be a solid play this week as well. Last week Adams was not spectacular but still saw 7 targets and a TD.


Mack Hollins - $3,000 - Value Play:

Hollins has been playing on the outside for the Raiders, and as the WR2 in this offense he has been on the field a lot getting 80% of the snaps. Given that this game should be a pass heavy approach that should not change. Last week he saw 8 targets for 5 rec, and 66 yards. If Renfrow sits that just makes me like Hollins a lot more.


Eagles vs Commanders

Bets:

Over 47


Game Preview:

The Eagles D has been somewhat impressive, but also the Vikings were just terrible last week. What hasn't been bad? Both team's ability to score. I think that these two teams are going to put up points, thus the 47 o/u seems way to low.


The biggest problem with this game is that Sanders, and Gibson could both easily go bunkers and score the points as both teams have not been too great against the run. At the same time Jalen Hurts has 3 rushing TDs I would think that gets corrected soon as well.


The way I want to stack this game is with the pass catchers, AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Curtis Samuel, and Logan Thomas.


AJ Brown - Mid Exposure - $7,300:

Brown is priced up a little bit too much for me on this slate but I do think he makes for a great stacking play. Last week Brown did not need to do much but still managed 11.9 DK points. In the much closer game in week one he had 28.5 Dk points. He could easily go for 20 again this week.


DeVonta Smith - Mid Exposure - $5,200:

Smith had a much better game in week 2 having 7 targets for 15 DK points total. This game was on Monday night so the price for the main slate was already out and DK could not adjust to this good game. I would say Smith is about $1,000 too cheap.


Curtis Samuel - High Exposure - $5,100

Samuel is still way too cheap this week, having 2 targets on the season while scoring an average of 21.6 DK points yet he is only priced at 5.1 this week? That does not make sense given his current role for this offense. He should be the highest priced Commanders player, seems like a simple play to me.


Logan Thomas - Mid Exposure - $3,500:

Thomas has not really looked good thus far this season yet he has been productive with volume. He also saw his snaps increase from week 1 from 62 to 73% of the snaps which should be the norm for him this season. He has scored 7.5, and 12.7 DK points that could easily happen again this week.



Packers vs Bucs + Jaguars vs Chargers


Game Preview:

Both games iI am currently staying away from although if Keenan Allen sits, Austin Ekeler is an eilte play with Josh Palmer being a great value.


The Chargers D has been so good that I do not want to target the Jags that much. Could go with Evan Engram.


The Bucs and Packers are both very banged up right now. I sort of see this being a ground and pound game anyways.


Texans vs Broncos

Bets:

Over


Game Preview:

Personally, I am excited for this game both teams have somewhat been under whelming thus far this season. The Rams at least have some easier plays for us with Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Tyler Higbee looking like they will be easy plays, and for the Cards Greg Dortch is still pretty cheap. This game should be easy to stack.


Matchup to watch: Jalen Ramsey possibly shadowing Marquise Brown. Brown has not been great thus far and Ramsey was much better last week. This would just make Dortch and even better play.


We need to confirm the status of James Conner as well. That could open up some value on this slate.


Stack + Core Plays - Stafford, Higbee, and Kupp - Ben Skoworek Value:

Stafford bounced back having a much better game Throwing for 3 tds. This is a game that has the potential to be a shootout. Now Stafford did have two bad throws that were picked off but for the most part he was solid. He has been targeting Kupp a lot which is a big reason he has scored 34, and 35 DK points the last two games. That has a great chance of continuing again this week in which is probably he easiest matchup thus far. Skowronek has been on the field so much this season, and has even been playing some FB for them. They clearly like him, and it would not be shocking to see him get 10 DK points in this one. Tyler Higbee has been on the field for 90% of the snaps, and has been targeted over 6 times per game. Right now at his price and given the game he is a plug-and-play.


Marquise Brown + Greg Dortch:

The Rams have been poor against the pass this season, so maybe we do not even need to worry about Marquise Brown getting Ramsey. Brown has played in 94.1% of the snaps thus far. Greg Dortch did see his snaps go down from 91% to 71%. 71% is still firmly enough for him to do well. This really game with Zach Ertz getting a big bump in his snaps. Dortch should still see a lot of playing time, and thus is too cheap in this game.


Falcons vs Seahawks

Bets:

Falcons +1


Game Preview:

The Falcons have been a pretty good team thus far, and I fully expect them to go out and dominate the Seahawks this week. They have had two tough matchups and nearly won both of them, well I expect that to get corrected this week.


Marcus Mariota - High Exposure - $5,500:

Mariota has played extremely well, and a lot better than the stats say. He has been able to get points with his legs as well. Given the easy matchup, I could easily see him getting to 20 DK points.






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