Game By Game Breakdown - DFS - Betting
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Packers vs Giants (London Game)
I find it pretty strange that this week the Packers are favored by less than what they were favored by last week. I know the Giants are 3 and 1 but I would say that the Pats and Giants are of equal talent as a team. Betting the Packers at -7.5 does feel like I am forcing that in a little bit so possibly just use them to win at -360 in a parlay instead.
The Giants are very banged up on offense right now with Daniel Jones most likely playing through an injury, then with Toney, and Golladay ruled out, and Robinson still questionable. This could lead to the Giants just not doing that well on offense. One interesting thing from last week was just the snap counts.
WR) David Sills 72%, Darius Slayton 60%, Richie James 32%, Kenny Golladay 42%
TE) Daniel Bellinger 60%, Tanner Hudson 57%
The fact that both TEs almost saw 60% of the snaps is very interesting to me, and with the Giants most likely playing from behind both I believe will firmly be in play as they should both be more productive this week as a result. David Sills feels like the only Giants WR locked into a decent amount of snaps, and he would be the only one I want to target. Saquon Barkley will score double-digit DK points and for SD should be in your build. Daniel Jones is a play that I do not care to be on.
For the Packers I think they could be highly productive in the passing game which might seem strange as the Giants are ranking out as one of the best pass defenses currently. But when you look at who they have faced it is not a surprise as to why. The Titans in week 1 with new offensive weapons. The Panthers with Baker who has been terrible, back up QB Cooper Rush, and then the Bears terrible offense with Justin Fields. If they had done poorly that would have been highly alarming. I am not treating this matchup as one to avoid, or even one that will hinder production.
That means I want to be on all the same Packers, and this is the order I want to be on them. Allen Lazard, Romeo Doubs, Aaron Rodgers, and Aaron Jones.
I love Lazard and Doubs in this game because they are playing in 90% of the snaps and because they are getting targeted around 6-9 times per game. That should continue this week. AJ Dillion is also firmly in play as I believe he will get a lot of carries in this game like he has gotten every game. The biggest wild card for me is Christian Watson he play limited amount of snaps but has looked great in his limited work. I could see him earning more playing time as well. Rodgers just keeps talking him up as well.
It does feel like AJ Dillion is due for a TD.
Allen Lazard + Romeo Doubs:
Both these guys are firmly in play in this game, I do not fear this D, and the Packers WRs and offense finally looked like what you wanted it to, and this was against a great D with the Pats. Lazard and Doubs played over 90% of the snaps last week which should mean that they are safe plays as well.
Titans vs Commanders
This game is one of my favorite games on the slate, the only tough part is that it is going to be difficult to stack. Both QBs get their easiest, or second-easiest matchup of the season which leads me to believe that they should both easily be able to hit 3X, especially at their soft price points.
For Washington, they will most likely be without Jahan Dotson, and possibly be without Curtis Samuel, (Samuel has missed two practices). With Jahan Dotson most likely out that will lead to Dyami Brown getting more snaps. He saw 28% of the snaps, and he directly took over for Dotson. I would imagine these injuries to both Samuel and Dotson will raise the floor of Terry McLaurin. He is already seeing over 90% of the snaps, the issue has been both matchup based and not getting enough targets. This week given the matchup and the lack of weapons he should be able to go off. The Titans have given up an average of 24.4 DK points, and given how productive Carson Wentz has been in easier matchups I think that he will find a way to get to 20 DK points.
If the Commanders are playing from behind it will be JD McKissic getting a lot of the work, if they are in the game or playing with the lead it will be Antonio Gibson. It is really as simple as that. I think it will be more of a Gibson game. Worth noting that Jonathan Williams did rush the ball 5 times for 48 yards on just 6 of the 74 snaps.
Logan Thomas will most likely be forced into a few more targets as well, and this is a top 5 matchup so he is someone that I would be looking to play in stacks. Thomas is currently averaging 7.4 DK points on around 68% of the snaps.
The Titans are a little bit more difficult to predict. Robert Woods has been playing 75% of the snaps and has scored over 12 DK points two straight weeks, and should be able to do that again with Treylon Burks most likely OUT. He seems like an ideal "run it back" play this week. From there Westbrook-Ikhine should get more snaps but the targets have not been there. I was also expecting a breakout from Kyle Phillips but it was Cody Hollister who saw more snaps last week. Both are playing that are quick slot WRs. The Titans have been using Geoff Swaim a lot more than Austin Hooper as he is the better blocker.
I think that Ryan Tannehill will find a way to get to 18 DK points, he is just always someone that is consistent and produces in easier matchups.
I do think that Derrick Henry is priced up a bit too much this week given the matchup but I do think the 5 and 6 targets he has been getting lately will continue to be there They are finding ways to get him the ball and this should continue this week as well.
Carson Wentz - High Exposure / Stack - $5,700:
It would not be shocking to see Carson Wentz be the highest-scoring QB on the slate. He gets an easy matchup, and has already had two weeks in which he has scored 30+ Dk points. He is throwing the ball over 40 times per game, and that is also something that should continue. He is also very easy to stack this week given that his pass-catching options are cheap.
Dyami Brown, Logan Thomas, and Terry McLaurin - Stacks:
All are relatively cheap given their matchup and projected usage given the injuries. Dyami Brown should see over 50% of the snaps with Dotson OUT. Logan Thomas and Terry McLaurin should see a slight increase in targets and usage as a result as well. This is a great matchup that we should be targeting as well.\
Robert Woods - Mid Exposure $5,200:
I love the price point of Woods this week in a matchup that is the 4th best on the slate. The issue is that he is not playing nearly enough snaps at only 71%, with Burks OUT that could increase. If he see maybe 80% of the snaps he could get a few more targets his way which would increase his floor.
Dolphins vs Jets
The Phins will be without Tua this week so in steps Teddy Bridgewater which is not really a big drop off, and I believe the offense structure will stay the same this week. Don't make mistakes and get the ball to your playmakers hands quickly. So Waddle and Hill should be in for whichever game they would have had regardless.
On the flip side we get the Jets who I think are very underrated. This offense has some of the better weapons in the league. Moore, Wilson, Davis, Carter, and Hall are all quality contributors. The only issue is the QB play. Now Wilson's scrambling ability should continue to help this offense in terms of fantasy production, and I think that will continue this week against the Phins who have been the worst against the pass. (Although not really fair as they have faced Jackson, Allen, and Burrow thus far.
Zach Wilson - High Exposure - $5,300:
Now I would say we should expect more of what Mac Jones did against the Phins rather than what any of the other QBs did. The difference is that this team will throw the ball more, and it is more designed like the Bengals 3 WRs deep, with a good RB. Wilson was able to extend plays with his legs, and had a decent amount of drops. His week could have looked better. Given the matchup, the price point, and his weapons I could see him getting to 20 DK points again. He did look improved from last year.
Elijah Moore, Garret Wilson, Tyler Conklin - Stack and Mid Exposure:
Corey Davis has looked good and I would be fine still playing him if you want to go that route, but Elijah Moore continues to get around 90% of the snaps, and it just seems like he is due to have a huge game. It is going to happen sooner or later, and this just feels like the perfect spot. Garrett Wilson has seen his snap count go up each week and he finally saw 77% of the snaps last week. He has looked SO GOOD! I can't understate that he has looked GREAT. The issue with last week is that he did have a bad drop, and it was his worst game of the year. We saw Zach Wilson spread the ball around a little bit more but Wilson has looked good and I think he could have a huge game in this one. Tyler Conkin is another cheap play, he also had two bad drops last week. Had he made those catches he could have easily had a much better game. Good news is the targets and playing time is still there.
Stack - Teddy, Hill, Waddle, Mostert:
Mostert saw 70+% of the snaps last week, and saw his most OPR last week at 18 total. The problem with Mostert is that he has failed to see the endzone thus far and maybe that gets corrected this week with a back up QB starting. Still Teddy is not a normal backup QB, ask the Carolina Panthers I am sure they would gladly take Teddy right now over Baker. While only playing 61% of the snaps Tedd was still able to score over 10 DK points. At 5.4 on DK this week if he simply stays at that production rate he will hit value.
Now Tyreek hill is priced up at 8K to the point where he is not a lock and load but I still think we will see a lot of short passes to both him and Waddle. Hill has seen over 12 targets in 3 out of the 4 weeks, and that should continue this week. Waddle's targets are less secure and that is why he is priced at 6.7K but in a game where you want to game stack Waddle is still firmly in play.
Trent Sherfield is also a cheap flyer. He has seen over 60% of the snaps the last two weeks, and saw 6 targets last week for 9.5 DK points. Possibly backup to backup connection working with Teddy and Trent.
Lions vs Pats
This game is very difficult right now due to a lot of injuries on both sides.
For the Lions we can predict that Swift, and St. Brown will be OUT, and we need to monitor whether DJ Chark or Josh Reynolds will sit. If one of those two WRs sit we should see WR Tom Kennedy be a great value. He was someone that dominated this preseason, and last week he saw 81% of the snaps while getting 5 targets for 8.4 yards. I would think we would get the same production out of him.
I fully expect the Patriots to ran the ball a lot. Last week they ran the ball 32 times, and they might even get to 40 this week. The Lions are just bad across the board on defense, so I expect the Pats to attack this D with their strength which is their run game. That means both Stevenson and Harris are firmly in play.
Harris and Stevenson High Exposure Plays:
Stevenson is out snapping Harris at around a 60 - 40 split. But Harris has been the RB that has looked the best and has been the one scoring TDs. It seems they are going with the Packers approach where Stevenson is the bruiser, inside runner and Harris is the slasher RB. The only difference is that Harris gets the TDs. Stevenson has seen 5 targets in each of the past two games and I sort of expect him to score 20 DK points in this game.. Given then playing time he seems the safest of the two. But it would not be shocking to see Harris get 18 carries for 100 yards and a TD this week as well. Both are elite play this week given their price points.
Jags vs Texans
I do see the Jaguars winning this game but I also believe that this game will be closer than the +7 spread that we are seeing.
James Robinson is almost cleary a strong play going against the Texans who have by far been the worst team against the rush.
Trevor Lawrence has also played better this season. Last week he faced off against the Eagles which was a rainy game, and a game in that he was without Zay Jones. Plus the Eagles are strong on defense. That is a game that was supposed to be difficult, and Lawrence was still able to score 2 TDs.
The Texans have been pretty solid on defense in the passing game so this is far from a cake walk for the passing game.
Kirk was still targeted heavily last week getting 9 targets and he is still playing over 90% of the snaps.
Last week Mills took 4 sacks while being hit 10 times. Josh Allen has looked good this year and could provide pressure. The Jags D could firmly be in play on this slate.
I do not hate Dameon Pierce this week as he has gotten over 20 OPR the last two weeks but he is not a lock this week, and I would rather play the Pats players.
OJ Howard - Extreme Value - $2,600: This right here is why I do the deep dive. Brevin Jordan missed last week and week 3, but last week Howard saw the 4th most snaps of any Texans player getting 75% of the snaps. he was targeted 5 times and scored 4.7 DK points. If the Texans get into the Redzone I would believe that Howard has a great chance to score a TD. Heck behind Pierce I would say he is the next best bet to score a TD for the Texans.
James Robinson - High Exposure - $6,300: The only worry with Robinson is the possibility that he gets gamed flowed out of this game. I don''t see that happening as I believe the Jaguars are the better team, and Vegas believes that as well. That should mean that we get a healthy dose of James Robinson. The Texans are the easiest matchup on the slate as opposing RBs are scoring 34.3 DK points against them. There is a chance that Robinson scored 30 DK points this week given how solid he has looked.
Bills vs Steelers
Kenny Pickett looked solid last week, but I think he will look terrible this week against the Bills, one of if not the league's best Ds. That really just makes every single one of the Steelers players tough to roster this week. Now maybe someone like George Pickens who should be in for PT no matter the score could be a fine play at 4.3. He has seen 7 and 8 targets the past two weeks and has looked good doing it. He is a play that I do not hate this week.
Once again this week Josh Allen is in a spot where if you can afford to pay up for him you can do so. Last week was his worst week by far and he was still able to score 24 DK points. Now that was a matchup he was supposed to dominate and it was his worst week, so I wouldn't call him a lock. But Allen gets the Steelers D that has struggled to get pressure as of late which should mean that Josh Allen has a great game. Thus Stefon Diggs should be in for a great game as well.
The plays that I like the most on this slate our the Defense (but they are priced up), and Devin Singletary.
Devin Singletary - High Exposure - $6,100:
Singletary is someone that you should be targeting via trades. The Bills tried the "3 headed monster" approach in week 1 and a little in week 2, but that has since went out the door. Which is what they did in the second half of last season. Singletary has seen 73% and 88% snaps the last two weeks overall 68% on the season. If he continues to get over 70% of the snaps, especially in a game where the Steelers are favored by 14 points then he should be able to have a great game. Singletary has gotten involved in the passing game the last two weeks getting 11 and 5 targets the last two weeks and getting over 40 yards in the passing game both weeks. The Steelers Do is also a plus matchup.
Khalil Shakir - Value Play - $3,200:
With Crowder and Kumerow ruled out, and McKenzie possibly sitting with a concussion Shakir could be in for a big role. Shakir had 2 targets on 25% of the snaps. He could be forced into around 50% of the snaps like Crowder and McKenzie had been seeing. In a game that could be a blowout as well he is someone that should see more snaps regardless.
Vikings vs Bears
Bears +7.5 (Vikes to win)
The Vikings have had one impressive game and that we week 1. Someone they have been winning games but it has not been pretty. The Bears come in at 2-2, and they are probably should have been the Giants last week.
I think that QB Justin Fields will be an interesting play this week. He has been running the ball at least 7 times per game, and the past two games has had over 45 rushing yards. He gets a Vikings D that has given up 2 rushing TDs already this year. The Vikings have been a middle of the road D this year. Fields could be worth a look in one off situations. If he was a better thrower he would have had a pretty big game last week. Its pretty obvious that his terrible arm is the reason this offense is struggling.
The Vikings are giving up the 5th most points to opposing RBs as well. (which could help fields run more) so that should mean the Bears will be able to run the ball. Personally I am hoping that David Montgomery sits one more week so that we can use Khalil Herbert at full confidence this week. Last week Herbert saw 77% of the snaps, and had 20 total touches scoring 11.1 DK points. It was a solid day, and if that continues this week he should be in for another productive day. It is worth noting that Trestan Ebner looked good and did start in the second half. But Herbert was the clear #1
That is really it for me this game. The Bears D has been solid, and should hinder the production for Cook, Jefferson, and Thielen.
Falcons vs Bucs
Welp Kyle Pitts and Patterson are OUT for the Falcons in this one. Would expect a heavy run game for the Falcons. If this happens we will see a lot of Tyler Allgeier the rookie RB that I have been excited to see get a primary focused look. The problem? He gets the Bucs who are one of the best defenses in the game, especially against the run. He is someone that has looked better each week. The Falcons are just a solid team, and the defense continues to play well. Mariota really had one somewhat poor throw last week and it was picked off. I mostly blame Drake London on that play as well.
The run game was really just impressive for the Falcons literally all of the RBs looked good. Plus last week the Bucs did just give up 5.1 YPC and 2 rushing TDs for 189 yards. The Falcons have been running a similar ish scheme to the one the Chiefs run.
The Bucs have 14 sacks on the year, and 29 QB hits both tied for 4th in the league. The Falcons have had pressure on 40% of their drop backs each of the last two weeks. This is the biggest difference of what the outcome of the game will be.
Chris Godwin - $5,900 - Core Play
The problem with the Bucs is that they have a ton of good enough plays, but the one play that stands out to me is Chris Godwin. He ran the 2nd most routes last week out of any WR in the NFL while playing over 90% of the snaps. He saw 10 targets for 12.9 DK points. I think Mike Evans will get AJ Terrell who has been able to stop Metcalf and Cooper so possibly could hinder Mike Evans. Thus Godwin would be the player you want to target.
Tom Brady - $6,000 - High Exposure:
The stats might not really show it but Jacoby Brissett played a great game against a good defense. Kind means that I think Brady could have a huge game. Last week he had a great game against the Chiefs, and yes this was due to the Chiefs D being bad, and the game being a shootout, but the offense was back healthy and I think that will only mean good things for Brady. I see him being able to score 20 DK points this week. PS not worried about the divorce stuff.
Worth noting that Cade Otton played in over 60% of the snaps last week and could be a decent value on this slate.
Chargers vs Browns
The Falcons just dominated on the ground vs the Browns, and the Texans just dominated on the ground vs the Chargers. I sort of expect both Austin Ekeler and Nick Chubb to have big games this week as a result. They are the two clear-cut plays. (Charges gave up two TDs last week, and over 8 YPC to the Texans)
A player that we need to monitor is Josh Palmer he only played 50% of the snaps, and has an apparent ankle injury. He was in and out of the game last week, and it seems that the ankle was the reason why. He was in at the end of the game though. When he was OUT it was preseason stud Michael Bandy.
Michael Bandy - Value - $3,000
Last week I was shocked at how poor Josh Palmer did well turns out he got injured. He only played in 56% of the snaps, and it looked like Michael Brandy came in for him as he had 29% of the snaps. Bandy was able to get 2 targets and score 6.5 DK points in that limited playing time. He is someone that if Keenan, and Palmer sit would be a great value assuming he is active. Bandy was someone that was a stud in the preseason as well. His two rec he was wide open as well.
Mike Williams - High Exposure - $7,100:
With Keenan OUT and possibly with Palmer OUT Mike Williams should be seeing 10+ targets in this game, and if he does he is someone that should be able to go for 20 DK points. The problem is that Williams will get Denzel Ward who was really elite last week.
DeAndre Carter - Value - $3,900:
Once again with the Chargers being banged up I could see Carter being a play that does well. He is already playing over 65% of the snaps lately so it would not be shocking to see him have a good game.
Everett would also be someone worth monitoring as well. This is a game that you could stack.
Seahawks vs Saints
This game is a stay-away for me. The Saints D is solid, and a lot of the Saints players are banged dup still. I think that Olave could have a great game again, and you have Jarvis Landry who is cheap, but this is a game that I am willing to fade.
I do not expect Geno to have a great game this week vs the Saints.
Any play that I would make in this game feels like I would be forcing it in there.
Niners vs Panthers
Baker has been so bad this season, the only play that I truly like in this game is the Niners D as a result. Both defenses have been solid, and both offenses have sucked.
Another game that I just do not want to target that much
Eagles vs Cards
Eagles are looking like how the Cards were supposed to look. This game has the potential to be an extremely fun game to watch, and if the Cards can finally start to play better offensively it could be a shootout. I just do not expect that to happen.
Last week the Eagles committed to the run, and I believe this was due to the weather, with the heavy rain. Honestly, the Eagles players are all fine at their price points, but at the same time they are all tough to get on.
Cards Pass D has a QB rating of 103.9 has given up 8 TDs
Rondale Moore - Mid Exp - $4,100
After how well Greg Dortch had played I did find it surprising that the Cards just said nope, we are going with Rondale Moore. Moore in that same role had the worst performance of a WR in that role. So it will be interesting to see if this continues. But Moore did instantly see 86% of the snaps so in this offense that is something we do want to chase.
If you were trying to game stack this game I would suggest Brown. Brown has been playing over 90% of the snaps and has see over 11 targets the last 3 weeks. He is averaging 19.7 DK points.
Cowboys vs Rams
The Cowboys have been super solid on offense, not great,, but they did get back Michael Gallup which is why I like the Cowboys in this game. With Lamb, Gallup, and Noah Brown at WR, and with Dalton Shultz back healthy I think that the Cowboys passing game will out play the Rams passing D. This has been the case for the Rams basically every week thus far this season. Eventually, it might get figured out but for now I will continue to attack them.
Michael Gallups saw 64% of the snaps last week, and I would believe that he would see a little bit more snaps this week being one more week healthy. Now he only saw 3 targets last week, but that is a number you would hope would go up.
I don't think I have to state this but yes Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee are still firmly in play.