Game By Game Breakdown - DFS - Betting
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PLAYER POOL:
Cash:
WR) Deebo Samuel, Jakobi Meyers
All Core Plays
Core:
RB) Stevenson, Henderson, Benjamin, Barkley
QB) Allen
Niners vs Falcons
Bets:
Falcons +5.5
Game Preview:
The Falcons continue to look good, and if a couple of plays had gone their way this season they could be undefeated They are one of the best teams in the league with a losing record. This is all while not really having too much talent. The run game for the Falcons has been extremely impressive, and Marcus Mariota continues to look good and make the correct passes. The Niners are a very similar team to that as the Bucs, and that is why I believe that the Falcons will be able to cover especially for a game that is at home.
Another reason why I like the Niners to cover is simply because the Niners should be able to run the ball with a lot of success. This will be a game in which I think both teams will be running the ball, and thus the clock will be running, and it will be a low scoring game.
The biggest issue in this game is that no one is really in play. It is a tough matchup for the Falcons. Tyler Allgeier looked awesome last week, especially in that tough matchup, and is someone I might look to trade for in season-long leagues. But that's my biggest take away.
For the Niners you could play Deebo Samuel in cash as I think we can lock him into 15 DK points. he should be a really safe play.
Patriots vs Browns
Bets:
Patriots
Game Preview:
Both teams are somewhat the same, have a bruiser RB, a WR that can get open, and an appealing TE if they are part of the game plan. The QB plan has been good enough to win games. The biggest difference is that the Pats defense is one of the best in the league, and I am giving them the advantage in the game because of that.
I do think that Amari Cooper could be in for a target-heavy game. The focus should be on stopping the run, and thus I think that Cooper could see some softer coverage than he typically would. In two out of three games he has seen over 10 targets. There is a chance that he gets those targets again, and if he does could get 20 DK points. The issue is that this defense did just shut down St Brown, and Hockenson.
If Jonnu Smith were to sit in this game Hunter Henry would be my favorite value play TE. A lot of the game he was a safety valve for rookie QB Bailey Zappe. On top of that he also saw over 90% of the snaps.
Rhamondre Stevenson - $6,000 - Core Play:
With Damien Harris OUT, Stevenson became a workhorse RB, and even though I do not think he is that good, he still finds a way to produce. He is basically looking like Derick Henry without the top-end speed. Or a better example would be a more allusive D'onta Foreman.
Jakobi Meyers - $5,300 - High Exposure:
I love Jakobi Meyers at this price point, as he is the Pats top WR, and has been targeted as such thus far this season. He has seen 8, 13, and 6 targets. Averaging 18.6 DK points. He has been a solid fantasy asset for over a year, and that should continue against the Browns he are a middle of the road defense.
Packers vs Jets
Bets:
NA
Game Preview:
The part that I do not like about this game is that the Jets are a good team. They are very talented on offense and are only going to get better as the season goes on. Same could be said for the Jets Defense. On the flip side the Packers have been planning well, but their style is one in which could lead to an upset. The Packers want to control the T.O.P. and have long sustained drives. Whether they can do that or not this week is the question.
The problem with the Jets for DFS purposes is that everyone has looked good and thus it is tough to establish who will be a good play. It almost makes all of them a stay away this week.
For the Packers both Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs should be safe plays. They are playing around 90% of the snaps while getting around 8 targets per game. Allen Lazard is priced how he should be but Romeo Doubs is still pretty cheap.
The interesting thing with the Jets is that they really spread out the playing time with only Corey Davis seeing over 70% + of the snaps.
I will say with the way that Raheem Mostert was able to SLASH through the defense at ease I do see the Packers being able to do the same thing with Aaron Jones. It would not be shocking to see Jones have a massive game.
Jags vs Colts
Bets:
HOU +7
Game Preview:
The Jaguars really depend on Trevor Lawrence to play well, and last week I would say was his worst game of the year since week one. The good news is that this week he gets the Colts. A team that has been good against the pass in every game except against the Jaguars. That game was actually just strange the last time these two teams met. Jonathan Taylor was not able to get going against the Jaguars. This is actually the second straight game against the Jaguars in which JT struggled. Now JT is coming in banged up, and it will be interesting to see how he does this week.
Last week the Colts were able to get a win in which will most likely be the ugliest win of the season by any team. The nice part about last week is that they were forced to get Alec Pierce more involved. It will be interesting to see if he has earned himself more playing time.
A lot of people will see how good Evan Engram did, and how well Marvin Jones did and draw conclusions from it. Really it just seemed like the Jaguars were going to attack the Texans with medium to long middle routes.
Evan Engram might be the only play worth going after in this game though. He did get 10 targets last week, and his second-best game this season was about the colts where he had 11.6 DK points. But he is priced up a little bit to much.
Jaguars D: If you find yourself with some salary left over I actually really like the idea of playing the Jaguars. They have scored 5+ DK points in every game thus far this seasson and scored 21 D points against the Colts in week 2. I would like this pick a lot more if JT is out.
Phins vs Vikes
Bets:
Vikings -3
Game Preview:
I really would not be shocked to see the Phins pull off an upset this week with rookie QB Skylar Thompson leading the way. He is someone that looked really good this preseason, but then last week had a rough game. We will see if the game plan is designed for more of his style play. If Thompson does play better than this could be a fun game to stack as both teams are pretty straightforward with who will get the workload.
For MIA we already know who to be targeting it is Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and possibly Mostert. The question we are really asking ourselves here is can Thompson do enough to making all three valuable this game. I would say no. We are choosing between those three. With how good Mostert looked, I think I would role with him and Hill this week.
On the flipside I think you could role with Kirk Cousins at QB, then just load up on Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and even KJ Osborn. This is a top 10 matchup on the slate, and all 3 WRs have been involved in the passing game. Osborn is currently seeing around 80% of the snaps.
Bengals vs Saints
Bets:
Bengals -3
Game Preview:
The Saints could possibly be without their top 3 pass catchers in this game which would mean that we are back to the WRs that they had last year. Which would then mean that we are back to Alvin Kamara getting peppered with targets, and more of Taysom Hill doing what he did last week. If that does happen Marquez Callaway would get a decent amount of snaps. For the Bengals they could be without Tee Higgins in this game which to me means that we should be firing up Tyler Boyd this week.
Boyd would be one of my favorite discount plays on the slate if this were to happen. It is interesting to note that Mike Thomas as saw over 70% of the snaps last week. This is what happened in week 1 the last time Tee Higgins was forced to miss some playing time.
Ravens vs Giants
Bets:
No Bets
Game Preview:
Well if Rashad Bateman does need to miss some time that should mean that Mark Andrews is going to go off in this game once again. The Giants are a strange team on defense because they are able to be beaten in the passing game for sure. The issue is the for some reason in another the game has flowed against that. But with the Ravens really only having Devin Duvernay as a WR option on this slate it is easy just to avoid them. For the Ravens I only like Mark Andrews, and Lamar Jackson
For the Giants I really like Saquan Barkley at his price point, really I have no idea why he is this cheap. He has been locked into 20+ OPR per game. The Ravens are not a matchup that we should fear.
Daruis Slayton could be a value on this slate with how banged up the Giants are at the WR spot but he only saw 54% of the snaps that was strange.
I also really like Daniel Bellinger as a TE play on this slate. Tanner Hudson is currently questionable and if he were to sit that would only make me like him more.
Bucs vs Steelers
Bets:
Bucs -8
Game Preview:
Man the Bucs should be able to dominate this game. I am very shocked at the -8 point favorites here after the Bills just dominated the Steelers. Now I am not saying the Bucs are that good, but on offense they should be able to put up a lot of points and as the game goes on I see them winning by more than 8 points.
One of my favorite stacks is an easy stack:
Brady, Godwin, Evans. Then you could even play Fournette as well if you would like to.
For the Steelers I do think it is best to just stay away from them on this slate. I will say though you could run it back with Pickens or Dionte Johnson. Johnson was targeted 13 times, and Pickens was targeted 8 times.
Rams vs Panthers
Bets:
CAR +10
Game Preview:
Personally I think that the Panthers are going to come out and play a great game. They just got their Head Coach, and DC fired. Plus Baker Mayfield is no longer at QB. Baker sucked and was the worst starting QB thus far this season. So if anything Walker could be an improvement.
Walker I actually like a decent amount on this slate at this price point. The Rams have been a team that you can attack in the passing game. Walker is also a QB that can score points with his legs. Given the matchup, and the price point I think Walker is someone that we should be on.
From there I do think DJ Moore is going to have a better game. He has been getting open, just Baker could not hit him. Now we get Moore at an extremely price point for the 7 targets per game he has been seeing. Shi Smith could also finally be a great value play like he has seemed like he could be. He has been getting 70% of the snaps. Last week he had 5 targets and was able to score 10 DK points. I think you could even run out a stack with Walker, Moore and Shi.
For the Rams lets keep it simple. If you can fit Cooper Kupp into your builds you do so. Tyler Higbee is still pretty cheap for the role that he has as well. He is someone that you can target this week as well.
*UPDATE:
Cam Akers has been ruled out for personal reasons. This means we will see a lot of Darrell Henderson. I will be going out of my way to play him. It's worth noting that in season long leagues if you have an IR spot to pick up Kyren Williams. All signs to him being a productive player in this offense eventually.
SEA vs ARI
Bets:
Under
Game Preview:
The game over/under for me is a little bit shocking as both defenses have been good enough, and although both offenses have been able to score points, at times it has not been very pretty. This game does have the potential to be a shootout, and for stacking purposes that is how I will approach it but for betting I will not be.
Eagles vs Cards
Bets:
NA
Game Preview:
Eagles are looking like how the Cards were supposed to look. This game has the potential to be an extremely fun game to watch, and if the Cards can finally start to play better offensively it could be a shootout. I just do not expect that to happen.
Last week the Eagles committed to the run, and I believe this was due to the weather, with the heavy rain. Honestly, the Eagles players are all fine at their price points, but at the same time they are all tough to get on.
Cards Pass D has a QB rating of 103.9 has given up 8 TDs
Rondale Moore - Mid Exp - $4,100
After how well Greg Dortch had played I did find it surprising that the Cards just said nope, we are going with Rondale Moore. Moore in that same role had the worst performance of a WR in that role. So it will be interesting to see if this continues. But Moore did instantly see 86% of the snaps so in this offense that is something we do want to chase.
Marquise Brown:
If you were trying to game stack this game I would suggest Brown. Brown has been playing over 90% of the snaps and has see over 11 targets the last 3 weeks. He is averaging 19.7 DK points.
Bills vs Chiefs
Game Preview:
This game should be pretty simple on Paper, all the Bills players that have done well (Diggs, Josh Allen, Gabe Davis, Devin Singletary) are all running backs that are worth looking at this week as they all draw a favorable matchup. Add on that Vegas thinks this will be the highest scoring game on the slate and we are good to go.
Josh Allen is someone I consider as a core play.
Diggs would be a high exposure play.
Then Singletary and Davis are strong plays you could play as well.
For the Chiefs I feel like playing anyone of them would just be forcing it. Besides Kelce the team mixes it up with who gets the usage. This makes it tough to predict. If I had to choose one it would he MVS as he is the Chiefs WR that is currently seeing the most snaps.
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