Game By Game Breakdown - DFS - Betting
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Browns vs Ravens
I do think that the Ravens are going to win, but I could see the Browns being able to cover in this game. Either way I do not enjoy the spread.
For the Ravens we need to wait and hear what the status of JK Dobbins is. He is currently questionable, and he has not practiced thus far this week. If he sits we could expect Kenyan Drake to be the lead back like he has been in 3 out of the 4 weeks that he has been active. This is the best matchup on the slate as well for an opposing RB so Drake would basically be a lock at his price point without Dobbins.
Mark Andrews is also currently questionable as he has missed two straight practices but I expect him to start. If he were to sit Likely would be a great TE value play.
For Cleveland, you could make a strong argument to play both Amari Cooper and DPJ in this game. Especially for a sneaky strange game stack. DPJ has been playing a lot of snaps and has finally seen a decent amount of targets as of late.
I could see going Cooper, DPJ, then Andrews and Drake to run back.
BUCS VS PANTHERS
CMC has been traded which just makes what I had written below even more true. Stay away from the Panthers right now.
PJ Walker is starting this game for the Panthers which means that we might just need to avoid all the Panthers players. CMC has the worst matchup for any RB on this slate, and sure he could go off and have a solid game, but at 8.4 he is player that is going to be easy to avoid this slate.
Same thing goes for all of the Panthers pass catchers. DJ Moore did see 100% of the snaps last week which is huge, and if you have a fantasy football team with a winning record I might try and buy low and him as you could most likely afford to wait and see when he starts to do well. All the other pass catchers in this gameplay only around 55% of the snaps.
For the Bucs, I would say that all the same players you would want to play are firmly in play. After having reduced snap counts in week 4 and week 5 we saw Fournette get back up to 82% of the snaps in week 6. He saw over 20 OPR the last 2 games while scoring 22, and 35.9 DK points in those game. The Panthers are a plus matchup as well. You could make a strong argument to play Fournette in cash.
Another strong cash play for the Bucs would be Chris Godwin. After only playing 52% of the snaps in week 5 we saw him get back up to his normal snap share at around 83%. He saw 12 targets in that game and scored 15.5 DK points. He should have a nice safe floor in this game.
Cameron Brate has not practiced yet this week which should mean that Cade Otton is going to be the TE 1. We saw this in week 5 when he saw 7 targets and was able to score 10.3 DK points. He should be a safe cheap TE play. Also in week 5 Otton saw 94% of the snaps.
Falcons vs Bengals
Last week the Falcons continued to do Falcons things, and looked great. Really it's just sad that they do not have more wins, but at the same time that is why we keep getting solid numbers on them as a team.
Tyler Allgeier continues to get a majority of the work in this back field, and continues to be impressive given the matchups. We are one week away from a great matchup in which we can use him. At that same time maybe Cordelle Patterson will be back next week. Both are players that I would look into trading for. The problem with the Falcons is that they do have another tough matchup so that is just a stay away on this slate.
I think the top play this week in this game could very well be Tee Higgins after being banged up he came in and saw his normal snap share getting 86% of the snaps. He saw 10 targets and scored 10 DK points. This is something that he has done in 4 straight games in which he was able to finish. The matchup with the Falcons is not an elite one, but it is not one that you want to avoid either. The Falcons D did just allow Brandon Aiyuk to have his best game of the year.
Does this game count as a revenge game for Hayden Hurst? They traded for him just to over draft Kyle Pitts. He is currently seeing around 70-80% of the snaps. This is a matchup in which you want to target as well.
I could see rolling out a little Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, and Hayden Hurst stack.
Lions vs Cowboys
This is going to be a game that is very easy to stack, and I will be doing that.
With Dak Prescott back this game I think we can expect to have multiple pass catchers be valuable. At the same time the weakness of the offense is on the ground, so i think we could see Zeke getting a lot of carries, and possibly 20+. The issue with Zeke is that he is only playing around 60% of the snaps. Thus I want to play more of their WRs who are all pretty keep. CeeDee Lamb has seen over 90% of the snaps on average, Noah Brown is averaging 84%, and last week Michael Gallup saw 76% of the snaps. All of their WRs are currently in play, and they are all solid plays if we do see the Cowboys pass the ball a little bit more with Dak.
The issue with trying to stack this game is that the Lions pass catchers are all banged up. Josh Reynolds, and DJ Chark are not practicing. St Brown is expected back, but we should see a value play at WR hold value. The value play I would look at if Reynolds and Chark are OUT would be Kalif Raymond. He played in 85% of the snaps in week 5 (bye week in week 6). He had 7 targets, 5 REC and was able to score 9.5 DK points. That was in a touch matchup as well. This is an easier matchup. He would be a player I would gladly "run it back" back with.
Giants vs Jags
We have seen that Trevor Lawrence does indeed still have his accuracy issues. We know that the Giants have benefitted a lot from some strange stuff happening in games, but hey they have still found ways to win.
For the Jaguars we have seen Christian Kirk be less valuable basically the last 3 weeks. Against the Colts and the Eagles he still scored 8.3 nd 11.8 DK points. Both matchups that you weren't exactly hoping for great things. I think that will be the expectation this week for him as well and the rest of the WRs. Kirk is still the number one though getting 92% of the snaps. If Marvin Jones were to miss this game then I think we would see Zay Jones hold some value as he saw 90% of the snaps last week with is about 10% more than he typically sees. Both will be low-owned as the Giants have been good against the pass thus far.
Another TE "revenge" game is Evan Engram who you could play if you want to.
Speaking of TE's Daniel Bellinger finally saw 90% of the TE snaps. Something that it seemed like we were heading towards. He is more of a season-long grab rather than a DFS option.
The top play for me in this game, and one of the top plays on this slate is Saquon Barkley. He is seeing the most snaps out of any RB in the league, and is getting around 20 OPR per game. This is not a matchup that you are worried about, heck it is a matchup in which Deon Jackson dominated against.
Titans vs Colts
The reason I like the Colts in this one is simply because the Titans won game 1.
Green Bay vs Washington
This is finally a game in which I agree with the spread for the Packers, but at the same time I see the Packers winning this game by more than a TD. Sure they looked bad last week against the Jets, but as I have been saying for awhile this season the Jets are a good team.
I like this slate for game-stacking purposes. You have Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs both priced at a cheap price point, both are WRs that have been getting a lot of snaps around 90% of them. Given that the Commanders are one of the worst pass defenses I want to be targeting them. This is a perfect get right spot for the Packers and for Aaron Rodgers. I think you can go Rodgers, Lazard and Doubs in a game stack easily.
The only player I would really want to run this stack back with is Brian Robinson. The rookie RB only saw 45% of the snaps last week but received 17 rushing attempts. After getting the start last week I think he will get the start again this week, if he does I believe he would get a higher snaps share thus those snaps that he received last week should be there again.
Jets vs Broncos
Once again I will be betting on the Jets. They have just been a solid team. With Wilson possibly OUT or very hindered by a Hamstring injury, and the head coach choosing not to play their best RB the Broncos offense should struggle once again. The problem with this game as a whole is that the over/under in this game is extremely low at 38.5 which I would agree with. This makes all the plays in this game tough.
The only play that I really like would be Greg Dulich who came in and saw over 70% of the TE snaps in his first game. They made it clear in the preseason that they loved Dulich and that was also clear last week. He is at the min price this week and only takes a catch or two to hit value.
Texans vs Raiders
Easily one of my favorite games to stack is the Texans vs the Raiders. Both defenses have had a glaring weakness that can be exploited. Now both teams could have corrected those over the bye week but I doubt it.
Starting with the Raiders it is pretty simple. Josh Jacobs is a stand-out play and a play that you would make this slate. The Texans have been the worst rush D thus far this season. The last two games Jacobs has scored over 30 DK points while getting over 25 OPR in each game. He should be in a spot once again for a HUGE workload.
On the flip side of that I love the idea of playing Davis Mills, Brandin Cooks, and Dameon Pierce in a stack. (Nico Collins if you have to). Pierce looked like a stud in his last game, and has seemingly gotten better each game. The Raiders are a team that you can beat many ways, so this matchup is not one that I fear for Pierce. Brandin Cooks has been seeing a lot of value as well as snaps it just has not turned into a huge week in DFS. That is because basically all of his matchups thus far have been more difficult matchups. This week is his easiest of the season and I expect him and Mills to connect a lot this game.
SEA vs LAC
This game will come down to Keenan Allen again for the Chargers in terms of who is going to be a valuable asset. If Keenan is active I sort of think that makes everyone stay away a little bit. If he sits which I think he will than we can load up on Mike Williams and Ausitn Ekeler with big confidence.
I also think that this would lead to a great stacking opportunity for Herbert, Ekeler, and Keenan.
On the flip side I LOVE Kenneth Walker. Last week he was super impressive on film, and at this price point, given this majority snap share (69%), and his workload he is going to be tough to avoid in general this game.
I do love DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in a stack as well. Both would be easy plays for a stack. We do need to watch the status on Lockett as he is currently questionable. If he were to sit Marquise Goodwin would be the player you would want to pivot to.
Chiefs vs Niners
The Niners just traded for CMC, which obviously will make this offense better in the long run, but I sort of see this as a distraction for this specific game. + the turnaround for CMC is very small. That to me is scary.
Really the only play that I like in this game is Deebo Samuel for a nice safe play. Besides that the Niners have been so good in the pass that I just want to stay away,