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Game over and under is set at 43.5 with the Broncos favored to win by 7. Obviously, this is the return for Russell Wilson the Seahawk's long-time QB. He goes to the Denver Broncos a team that always just seems to be a QB away from greatness. This team has Superbowl aspirations and we will get our first look to see if any of those have a chance of coming true.
Replacing Wilson is QB Geno Smith for the Seattle Seahawks. He looked surprisingly good last year in relief of Wilson when he was injured but in the preseason Geno defaulted back to the Geno we have all seen for years. If the Seahawks are going to keep this game close they are going to need some big plays out of Lockett and Metcalf while Fant and Penny keep the drives going.
With the Seahawks poor pressure last year I think that Wilson will be able to throw all day while both Williams and Gordon should be in line for good yards per carry game. The RB plays here will just come down to who is in the game when the Broncos get to the goalline. I feel like Williams could end up with a similar game as to what D'Andre Swift had this week, and Gordon would be the other RB have a similar game to that of Kareem Hunt or Jamaal Williams. I like both in this game, but I think Melvin Gordon has a better chance of falling into the endzone in this one, and he should be lower-owned.
With Wilson having a lot of time to throw the ball I think we will see Courtland Sutton have a massive game in this one. He has long been a player everyone was excited about as he seemed to always make big plays, the consistency was not there because of the QB play. Well now he has one of the best QBs in the league throwing him the ball he should feast.
A lot of people are going to be playing Jerry Jeudy in this one as well, which is fine, I see him more as a "shoulder shrug" play. Meaning that if you end up on him I am fine with it but not someone I am going out of my way to play.
The value for the Broncos could come with their defense and a couple of backups. KJ Hamler is currently questionable, and if he plays he makes for a solid value play, I would actually like him more than I do Jeudy in this one. If he sits that should open up some value. The likely value punt play would be Montrell Washington who is listed behind KJ Hamler and will most likely be their return man. He is a small dynamic play maker that the Broncos are excited about. Really just needs one play to hit value.
After that the Broncos for some reason seem to not love Albert O that much, playing him a ton this preseason, making him "prove" something that was not reported. At the same time they also have hyped up TE/FB Andrew Beck a decent amount. I am not saying playing Beck, although one catch is all he needs, but I am saying there have been smoke signals going off here and maybe Beck has more of a role and maybe Albert O has less of role.
One of the fun matchups tonight will be Pat Surtain lining up against DK Metcalf. Last year Surtain only allowed a 51% completion rate, and a 61.3 passing rating. If he is able to contain Metcalf I believe that would mean that Lockett is having a solid game. I also have a feeling that Lockett will have a big game in this one, maybe just catching one deep ball, having 80 yards on 4 catches. Lockett given his price point has been the one I have been going out of my way to play.
Dee Eskridge will most likely be one of the better value plays that we have gotten this week for a showdown slate, in a game where we think the Seahawks will be playing from behind thus having to throw the ball the second-year WR Dee Eskridge could step up. At the very least I think he will have a catch which will mean that he hits value. I mostly like this play because Pete Carroll has been talking him up.
Rashaad Penny might be game flowed out of this one, I like him overall as a player, and his price point is not too high, he could have a good game, but not someone I see as a must-play. I actually like the idea of paying down for Travis Homer instead who I believe will be the Seahawks' pass-catching down back RB. Now Kenneth Walker is actually listed as the RB2 on the depth chart, but it would be shocking to see him play in this one. Homer is priced at 1,400 on DK on this slate, and I believe he will get around 4 to 6 targets in this one assuming the Seahawks are playing from behind. If this happens he should easily smash this value price point.
I will say I do think this offense will somewhat "flow" through Noah Fant whether that be via the run or via the pass, I am not saying he is going to be an every week starter or anything like that, but the Seahawks seem to want to make Noah Fant a think. I think he has a chance to have a good night tonight.
1) Russell Wilson
2) Courtland Sutton
3) Broncos D
4) Travis Homer (value - to fit all the studs in a build)
Sutton over 4.5 REC +105
Melvin Gordon over 1.5 REC -120
Fant over 2.5 REC -140 (Last year with the Broncos had 13 out of 16 games over those REC)
Albert 0 under 3.5 REC -140
Rashaad Penny under 15.5 rush attempts +100
Russell Wilson over 256. passing yards -110