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NFL DFS Week 16 - Main Slate

This is going to be another example of the content that will be featured on the new membership page for 925 Sports.


Quarterback:


· Phillip Rivers - $5,700 (Mid Exposure Play): Rivers has been pretty brutal this year film wise. Seems to be getting worse with age with his decision-making. But recently he has been more consistent going for 15 + DK points in 4 straight games. Rivers has an easy matchup this week, and should be able to take advantage of this week’s matchup. He should be able to get to 20 DK points this week. (Honestly if he doesn’t it may be time for the Chargers to start fresh)

o Stack With: Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and Melvin Gordon

o Run It Back with: Darren Waller


· Drew Brees - $6 ,900 (High Exposure Play): The last time I played Brees in cash was when the whole team struggled against the Falcons when he only went for 11 DK points, since then he had one tough match up, and one easy one. He went for 43, and 31 DK points the last two weeks in those matchups. Now he gets the Titans who can get beat easily in the passing game. I think another 30 DK week is right in the mix for Brees. Let’s just hope that he doesn’t get vultured.

o Stack With: Michael Thomas


· Matt Ryan - $6,200 (High Exposure Play): This is mostly matchup based. Over the last three weeks the Jaguars have been getting torched in the passing game. Giving up 16 DK points to Derek Carr, 27 DK points to Philip Rivers, and over 25 DK points to Jameis Winston. Factor that, and the fact that Matt Ryan has only had 3 weeks this season where he has scored last than 19 DK points, and that is a recipe for success. If we can pay up for Matt Ryan I think we should.

o Stack With: Julio, and Hooper.


· Will Grier - $4,300 (Low Exposure Play): Honestly I think Grier is going to struggle, but let’s say he doesn’t, and let’s say he simply just does what Kyle Allen has done the whole year, which is get the ball the teams play makers, well then he should hit value. Heck all it takes for him to hit value is one TD. For basically the past two months I was forcing stacks of DJ Moore, Kyle Allen, and CMC into my builds. That stack was hitting for over 60 DK points each week. This a decent chance that could continue again this week. I will be using Colts D a lot this week. But I will have some stacks here as well.


Running Back:


· Chris Carson - $8,500 (Mid Exposure Play): Crazy that Carson is priced up this much, but it well deserved. Yes last week was a super easy matchup but he still went for 29 DK points in the first full game without Rashaad Penny. Flash back to earlier in the year when the Seahawks played the Cardinals Carson went for 21 DK points. That game he had over 20 touches, last week he had over 20 touches. I think he will get over 20 touches this week as well. He should be able to get to 20 DK points. The biggest problem with this play is that we have better plays lower.


· Joe Mixon - $6,600 (High Exposure Play): One of the biggest mysteries that puzzled me earlier this year is why the Bengals were not force feeding Joe Mixon the ball. They have figure that out over the second half of the season. Since week 10 Joe Mixon is averaging over 23 opportunities per game. This was with some tough matchups mixed in there. During the same span he is averaging 20 DK points per game. Going against Miami who is one of the worst if not the worst run defenses in the league Mixon should be in for a huge day given recent production, matchup, and projected opportunities.


· Melvin Gordon - $5,600 (Low Exposure Play): Seemed like Melvin was put in the doghouse last week for fumbling twice, and just destroying some nice builds we had going. The nice part about that is that he got priced down a ton. Not only did Melvin struggle but the whole team did. They were playing from behind the whole game, which led to him getting 7 targets. Still the talent is too good for this price point. The matchup is fine as well. Gordon should see around 18 opportunities this week in a decent matchup. He should be able to score 15+ DK points this week.


· DeAndre Washington - $4,000 (Core Play): Washington is going to be the chalk this week, and he most likely should be. Josh Jacobs is out, and the last game that Jacobs was out Washington scored 20 DK points. He essentially took over for Jacobs in that lead back role. He should do the same this week, and should be a lock to hit value.


· Others Receiving Votes: Kenyan Drake, and Boston Scott


Wide Receivers:


Don’t Need to Touch On:

Michael Thomas (High Exposure Play)

Julio Jones (Stack Play / Mid Exposure Play)

DJ Moore (Stack Play only this week, sadly)

Tyler Lockett (Matchup based – worst pass D against slots)

Amari Cooper (Easy matchup – went for 18 DK last time against PHI)


Keenan Allen - $6,300 (High Exposure Play): Keenan has only seen less than 6 targets in just two games this year. Over the last 5 weeks Keenan has scored 13 or more DK points. He gets a great matchup this week against the Raiders. I also really like Mike Williams this week.


Greg Ward Jr - $4,200 (Mid Exposure Play): Now at least this week there will be logic behind Ward being less than 15% owned in cash, because last week was just crazy to me. Still am mind boggled by this. Dude was 3K and a lock to see 6 + targets in an easy matchup. This week the matchup is not as good, but he is still the WR 1 in the offense, and he has seen 18 targets the last two weeks. I am projecting him again to see 6 targets. If you’re trying to pay down at WR this week Ward is not a bad play. But he is not a lock this week like he was last. Should note that in the 4 games Ward has been active Alshon has been out in 3 of the them in those 3 games he has seen a total of 25 targets!


Malik Turner - $3,500 (Value Play): This is a dart throw GPP play, but Turner has been impressive on the field, with the suspension to Josh Gordon Turner should see a boast in his snap count. Would not be shocking to see him score long TD.


Tight End:


If you can you should pay up for Zach Ertz again this week. Still do not mind Dallas Goedert as a cheap TE play as well. Jacob Hollister is going against the worst TE pass D, and should be owned in some GPPs. Greg Olsen is back and could as make for a great GPP play.


Austin Hooper - $4,400 (Cash Play): I feel like Hooper rushed himself back from injury slightly, but he has had now three weeks to heal up. I will most likely be playing Matt Ryan in cash, and I am not sure that I want to paly Julio in cash. Thus I think I will end up on Hooper as my cash TE. This is due to the fact that Julio saw an insane amount of targets last week. I think some of those targets are due to go Hoopers way this week.


Defense:


This week with Defense it really seems like you should just play the defense that you end up on. The defense that I do like the most however is the Colts going against Will Grier in his first start. If I had to pay up for a defense it would be the Steelers. So the two defenses that I would go out of my way if I had to would be the Colts and the Steelers.


 

Stacks:

Marlon Mack, and Colts D

Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett, Chris Carson, Jacob Hollister

Will Grier, CMC, DJ Moore (Low Exposure)

Matt Ryan, Julio, and Hooper

Rivers, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen… Taking it further: Ekeler or Melvin

Minshew, and Chark


 

Cash Build:

QB) Matt Ryan

RBS) Joe Mixon, DeAndre Washington

WRS) M. Thomas, Keenan, Ward. (Could switch MT for Julio in GPPs)

TE) Hooper

Flex) Melvin

Defense) Colts


Simple Pivots: Switching from Matt Ryan to Drew Brees. Going from Hooper to Hollister. Pay down at D.


GOOD LUCK THIS WEEK, AND HAPPY HOLIDAY’S. BTW IF YOU’RE STILL READING I HAVE SOME PERSONAL NEWS, YOUR BOY GOT ENGAGED THIS WEEK!!!

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