This wildcard weekend is going to be a slate that I attack mostly in the Showdown and I think I will either to a a separate write up or a video covering the showdown slates.
Slate Confidence Rating: Red - Yellow
Quarterback:
· Josh Allen - $6,500: Josh Allen is the highest priced play that we should pay up for on this slate. Now sure, we could role with Drew Brees as that play, but if I have money left over I am rolling with Allen in GPP's (In Cash, Brees is a safe play). For GPP's Allen should be able to go off in this spot, but a lot of this play is how you can stack Allen. Both John Brown and Cole Beasley are really under priced when considering the match up and the prices of the rest of the plays around him.
o Stack With: Brown, Beasley
o Run It Back with: Duke Johnson
· Tom Brady - $5,800 (Mid Exposure Play): I really like the price point of Brady this week and I feel like that makes him tough to avoid (especially in a match up vs the Titans who are the 27th ranked team against opposing QBs). We know the Patriots like to attack Defenses more than anyone else does by going directly at a teams weakness. That weakness for the Titans is in the Air. Thus Brady should be able to pay off value at this price point. The problem with Brady this week is that he is hard to stack.
· Carson Wentz - $6,200 (Mid Exposure Play): I like the price of Wentz this week, but I do not love it. I do however like how easy it is to stack him. If Ertz is back this week, which it seems like he will be, I think Wentz will get to 20 DK points again.
o Stack With: Wentz, Ward, Goedert or Ertz*, and Boston Scott
Running Back:
· Dalvin Cook - $7,800 (Mid Exposure Play): If I lose money because I played Dalvin Cook and he exits the game due to injury, I will be fine with it because this is the right play. He is priced way too cheap, and should hit value at this price point. If he scores a TD, he will easily exceed it.
· Boston Scott - $5,800 (Mid Exposure Play): With Sanders now active, Sanders is in play at a low exposure as well, but then he is the only Eagle you can play. I still like Scott this week, who has just looked good, and has reminded me a lot of Corey Clement when he won Superbowl MVP just like fellow Badger RB James White won the year prior. (Oh yea QB's only win Superbowl MVP). Scott has seen 6 targets or more for the past month. People may be turned off looking at his yards per carry but they forget that a good portion of those were goal line carries.
· Travis Homer - $5,300 (Low Exposure Play): How good did Homer look last week? He was a man on a mission. One thing that has been clear is you have to target whoever is the Seahawks RB1, and currently that is Homer. Even if the Seahawks try to force Lynch too much. Homer will get around 15 touches and a third of those should be via the air. I also think that this benefits him a lot in this match up with the Eagles, who are easy attack with short quick passes to the RB.
·Sony Michel - $4,600 (Mid Exposure Play): Michel is the most missed priced play on the slate in terms of touches and potential value. He has seen over 18 carries in three straight games and I like his chances of scoring a TD. The only problem with this play is that Brady can't be our QB then.
Wide Receivers:
Don’t Need to Touch On:
Michael Thomas (High Exposure Play)
DeAndre Hopkins (Low Exposure Play)
Julian Edelman (Mid Exposure Play)
So I will keep this simple, you should play a WR that correlates with the QB that you're playing especially on a small slate. I do think that if we can fit Michael Thomas into our builds that we should. After that, I do like Tyler Lockett as a GPP only play. If the Seahawks win, it will be because he had a big game. After him I really like John Brown and Cole Beasley. I would much rather play Beasley in Cash. Greg Ward Jr. is too cheap, and is a great lineup filler of someone that should not kill your builds. N'Keal Harry is my favorite 4K play this week. I do not expect big things from him however. I only see him scoring around 7 DK points. The play that I am talking myself into the most this week is actually Corey Davis. Davis is priced at under 4K, and this is a slate that we will need some raw points. Davis will give us just that, especially if the Patriots force the Titans to throw the ball which I think they will. Davis is due for a TD as well. I will be playing him a lot on showdown slates.
Tight End:
There are 4 tight end plays that I am looking at on the 4 game slate. 3 of them are Eagles. Dallas Goedert is the easy play at Tight End this week if Zach Ertz does sit (which it currently seems like he will). If Ertz does sit, Perkins is then a great value as well. If you want to get real crazy you could play two Tight Ends. The other two Tight Ends that I like are Jared Cook and Jacob Hollister. Hollister is a cheap play that should not kill you this week. If you were looking to punt at Tight End play Hollister.
Defense:
The strategy at Defense is honestly to play all of them, and hope that one goes off. This is an extremely tough week to go and and recommend a specific Defensive play, because all it takes is one fluke play for a D to score a TD and ruin the slate. If I did have to pick on D though it would be the Seahawks. They are priced too cheap, and put up 17 DK points against the Eagles earlier this year.
Stacks:
Josh Allen, John Brown, Beasley (High Exposure)
Brady, LaCosse, Harry (Showdown)
Brees, Thomas (Safe Stack)
Wentz, Ward, Goedert (Mid Exposure)
Cash Build:
*This is the Cash Build that I am on write now as of posting this on Friday. News will change the lineup most likely, and we will have to make changes where we see fit.
For this build, I adjusted from Brees to Brady, from Homer to Cook (moved Sony to RB from flex). Then put Goedert into the TE spot. Yes that is how much $100 off changes a build and this slate.