The NineToFive Cheat Sheet is curated data for that weeks golf tournament(s). It is a way for an individual to easily view golfers statical preview for that tournament. See why or why not a golfer might not be a good play.
A practical use is know which golfers are great plays, but also know why a golfer could struggle as well.
The goal is to simplify the lineup process. As there is no need to spend hours research when the research is done for you.
OVERVIEW:
- This is a curated data sheet to make research easier.
- Curated data is based on 4 key SEPERATE key metrics: Course History, Recent Form, Stat Fit, and Specialist Data
- Course History is will be the last 4 years at the course when applicable. If course history for the last 4 years in not available (new course or event) then the top 4 comparable courses or events will be used. This is why Course History in the cheat sheet is denoted by H1, H2, H3, H4. (H1 being the most recent). The reason for only 4 years course history is because past 4 years the course history becomes irrelevant statically. This is why I only show 4 years. Having good course history is the cherry on top, but simply playing a course was a huge advantage in 2022 winning GPP lineups. Course History Measuring winners. Below is more details.
· Course History in terms of winners (based on a random sample size)
85% of Winners in 2022 had at least 1 start
75% of the Winners in 2022 had at least 2 starts
52% of the winners had at least 3 starts
24% of the winners had at least 4 starts
· Course History in terms of course history ranks
The average course history rank was 28th
61% of the ranked top 30 or better
40% ranked top 15 or better
22% ranked top 5 or better
- Recent Form: Recent form rank is determined by a golfers last 7 starts, made cut percentage over last 20 starts, last start, and current cut streak. This is setup this way to accurately tell us which golfers have been playing well. On the Cheat Sheets the Recent Form will be denoted by RF1 - RF20. (Note if you want to see the specific tournament click on the "player tournament log" sheet.
- Key Stats/Stat Fit: The key stats for the week are determined by the past tournaments key stats in terms of which ones led to success for both making the cut, finishing top 10 and winning. Two stats that will always go into the Stat Fit rank is SG Total for the season (after 2 months into the season, prior to that it will be SG Total for a golfer over their past 5 starts). The second stat is Effective Scoring (ESCR). They are always in the data, but they are not shown because they are not specifically unique for that weeks tournament. This is a NineToFive stat, this measures both safety and upside. The course specific stats will be denoted by KS1, KS2, KS3, and KS4. The correlating Key Stat will be listed in the tournament overview column and in the weekly NineToFive Writeup.
- Specialist Ranking: This is a measure of all the unique individuals data points that go into a specific course and combines it into one ranking. Unique data points include: Course Designer, Course Style, Event Scoring, Course Length, Bunker Amount, Water Hazard Amount, Rough Length, Rough Amount, Green Speeds, Greens Width, Fairway Width, Green Type, Weather, and Location. I take the past 5 starts for each golfer on those specific unique individual categories average finish, and combine that into one data point, the Specialist Ranking.
NAVIGATION:
The first thing that I want to call out is that there are two versions of this tool. One that is designed for desktop, and one that is designed for mobile. Please make sure you're clicking on the correct one.
Desktop will work on mobile, and the mobile sheet will work on desktop they are just not specially designed to do so.
Mobile Cheat Sheet:
- Default screen listed below. From there you will have the option to choose which data you would like to see.
- Once you click on the mobile cheat sheet you will be taken to the screen listed below. It shows the players name, DraftKings salary, and model rank for that week. You can click on the players picture to get a view of their outlook for that week. All other data sheets will act in this same manor.
While in the player profile view you can then swipe to the left or click to the left to then see the next player.
The Mobile Cheat Sheet also includes the Betting Data Sheet, and the Ownership Leverage Sheet. Both of which can be found on separate tabs on website.
The mobile data is there to help you look at the data in a fast and easy way. You do however lose some of the filtering options that are available on the desktop version. If one version is not loading properly try using the other. (Desktop typically demands more out of a device)
(Desktop) Cheat Sheet:
- This is designed to visibly show you why certain plays are good plays that week in a quick and easy view.
- It offers you ways to filter the data down to see which players you want to be even more.
Base View
- Highlighted is the breakdown of what goes into each part of the cheat sheet. Below you will see a further breakdown of what goes into this.
Below the NineToFive Data Tag is in use. The tags listed below are based off of which golfers meet each statical threshold to have that specific "Data Tag". The statical thresholds are based off of which golfers are most likely to play well based off of the previous season data in terms of which golfers (based on the data) are good plays.
Core Plays meet all thresholds, and Fades fail to meet half of the needed thresholds. All other tags work in the same fashion. (Note golfers that have a small sample size maybe over or under valued)
The Outright Tag is essentially the same thing as the Data Tag listed above, but the constraints that go into the Outright Tag formula are slightly different then what goes into the Data Tag. The Data Tag focuses on both safety and upside, and stats that match that.
The Outright Tag has the sole focus of calling out the best outright bets. The constraints that go into this are based on the 2022, and 2023 winners. I pull in which stats were the most predictive in terms of picking a winner. The "Outright" are golfers that match all the statical winners, the "Possible Outright" are golfers that land in the 80th percentile of winners, and "Long Shot Only" are golfers that land in the 70th percentile.
Sometimes we are left needing to make a 50/50 decision and sometimes we need a reason to figure out which golfer we should end up on. One slight move one could make is to see if a golfer has any local ties. Type in the location of the tournament, and select all of the locations that are the same as the tournament location. This will then filter down all the golfers who have recorded local ties. This is by Birth Place Location (which can be inaccurate as we do not know how long said player lived there) College Location, and Current Residence.
*Note this updates at the start of the PGA Tour season. New golfers to the PGA Tour, or golfers that typically play elsewhere me not be listed.
When you click on the data slicer button this will pop up. This allows you to filter down the Cheat Sheet. This can also be good for 50/50 decisions or filtering the field down to the top 65 in the model (golfers most likely to make the cut).
The data that is listed is the data that is most commonly used, or should be the most commonly used.
The tour selection tab is the primary event, and the secondary event in golf that week. This is typically the PGA Tour event, and a DP Tour event. As you see in the picture below it is different then the pictures that were listed above.
To pull up the a players profile while in the Cheat Sheet click on their name, and then click on the Player Profile button. The picture below shows this. The picture after that shows you the Player Profile.
The Player Profile is preset to show the golfers Course History, Recent Form (last nine starts, and recent form last 5, 10, and 15), Stat Rank with key stats, and Specialist rank.
You can also choose to look at a lot of all stats as well (basically all that are listed in the data base for that week) by using the search bar or by clicking the arrow over. You can select or deselect whichever data you would like.
Course History Tab:
- I may be adding in more years into this on the far right hand side that is currently empty. I have this data, and I realize that some still like to view it.
- You can sort by which golfers have the best course history based off of how many starts they have at said event.
Recent Form Tab:
- The recent form tab gives you a deeper dive into which players are in the best form.
- You can sort by which golfers have the best form of their past 5, 10, or 15 starts.
Stat Fit Tab:
- The stat fit is defaulted to show the key stats for that specific week.
- The total column is based off of the average stat fit for those specific Key Stats in the data table at the moment. It is listed that way so that one could add in or take out data to change the best average stat fit.
- Reminder that ESCR, and SG Total are weekly stats that go into the Key Stats.
Specialist Tab:
- Highlighting all the unique characteristics for that weeks tournament course.
- Based off of the golfers last 5 starts (if applicable) for that unique data category.
- You can filter the data down more to see which specific data points you want to see.
- The players will be sorted by the golfers that have the best average between those data points.
If you have any more questions please message myself in the 925 Discord, or other members in the 925 Golf Discord.