We are onto to Texas this week for the Texas Children's Houston Open played at Memorial Park Golf Course. This course went through some remodels in 2019, resulting in this tournament being one of the few tournaments in which Strokes Gained Around the Green, and Strokes Gained Putting are both key. This could potentially be a little bit different as the course/tournament is being played at a different time this year. The greens have also changed from Bermuda greens to Poa. We will not know for sure how this will change how the course plays until we see it this week.
As for this week in fantasy golf I think I like it a little bit more than I did the last two weeks in terms of predictability. The last two weeks the tournaments were predictability unpredictable, and that still seems to be the case this week, but I this week we have a few cheaper plays that are "safe".
The biggest issue with this week's tournament is a lot of the golfers in the field are only checking one or two boxes (recent form, stat fit, course history, or specialist). The Players was tougher to predict simply because its The Players and it is a tough course, in which golfers cannot get away with bad shots, last week the weather and the field led to it being more unpredictable. The field is not great as a whole this week, and the weather could get bad as well. Still I think the same thing will apply this week, where it will be hard to get 6/6 across the cut line, but if you do you should be in for a solid week. (assuming Keith Mitchell isn't in your lineups and trunk slams on the weekend). Like I said earlier I do think we are getting some plays that stand out given their prices.
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Below you will see my breakdown this slate, calling out what data points we will be looking at to determine which golfers are the best plays this week and it will show why. The NineToFive Data is all curated data to specifically tell us and show us why a golfer is a good or bad play this week. I will be going through and putting my analysis to how the NineToFive Data views those plays and whether or not I agree with those plays. If you would like access to this great data, or the plethora of data that NineToFive offers click the join now button below and signup for just $10 a month.
Key Stats:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. When no course history is available I will difficult to compare course history. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie to Bogey Ratio (B2B) - KS1
Strokes Gained Putting (SGP) KS3
Total Driving (TD) KS2
Strokes Gained Around Green (SGARG) KS4
200 + scoring KS5
This course is actually a fun one to breakdown, because golfers have won in different ways, but there are a few stats that have stood out in terms of predicting success. Total Driving makes sense as this course will play longer, but going along with that it makes sense why the 200+ scoring was one of the most key stats this week. I also believe that due to the length it makes sense why SGARG, and SG Putting are popping as key stats. This course does tend to play more difficult so we will want to pay attention to Birdie to Bogey Ratio again this week.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Years: 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
Moving off of the Red / Green tag that we have had the past two weeks to a yellow tag, as again I like the projected predictability of this week slightly more than the previous two. The only concern I have is if the weather leads to some variance.
Weather:
Weather is being tagged as "bad" this week. I do not mind the idea of looking at golfers that are good in bad weather situations. I think this will be great for 50/50 choices when making lineups.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Outright Bets:
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statical thresholds used to determine winners.
A strange development that I do not see coming this season is the NineToFive Outright Tag being able to predict how predictable a week would be. Last week we only have two "good" outright bets. This week we have 5.
My Outright Bets:
Doug Ghim 58/1
Wyndham Clark 11/1
Si Woo Kim 29/1
Mackenzie Hughes
Sahith Theegala
Jason Day
Core Plays + Outright Bets
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Takeaways:
We have 4 golfers that are coming in checking all the boxes, which is extremely refreshing! All golfers have 0 missed cuts at this event over the last 4 years, all golfers have made at least 3 cuts in a row with top 10 finishes. All are ranking top 30 or better in all the key metrics that we look at.
The only one that is a little bit of a concern is Mackenzie Hughes, stat fit wise, but you could argue that is why he is priced where he is at. The biggest worry is is Total Driving, besides that he has been solid. Given his recent form getting better over his past 3 starts, he seems to be trending in the right direction for an event that he clearly likes making 4 straight cuts in a row here. The other concerns I have with him is that he ranks about 80th int he field in both bad weather scoring, and hard scoring tracks, which again is probably why we are getting him at a cheap price tag.
Between Jason Day, and Theegala they both seem over-due for a victory, and this is the perfect event for that to happen at as they basically are playing against Scottie and Clark.
Day I consider the easier of the two plays, and a starting point for lineups without Scottie as he is top 11 or better in Stat Fit, Recent Form and Course History, the only knock is Specialist data where he ranks 17th.
Scottie Scheffler is simple, if you can fit him into your builds you should do so. At the same time I think I would rather try to get Theegala, Day, and Hughes in my builds first.
High Exposure
Players that I am still going out of my way to roster, but have a slight pause for whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Takeaways:
The biggest knock on Clark is that he has been slightly inconsistent this season, that is why I am giving him a High Exposure tag. Now the NineToFive Model likes him slightly better than Theegala, if you have those same feelings I think that would make sense.
Si Woo Kim is just priced up a little bit too much but he is someone that you should have exposure to in GPPs. I would much rather get to a cheaper Alex Noren or Keith Mitchell.
Noren is a play I wanted to make a Core Play, and is a play that I will be getting to a lot in Fair and Balanced builds. He is top 5 or better in all of the key metrics minus Course History where he is getting knocked with a missed cut 3 years ago. He finished 4th at this event last year so he is extremely close to being a core play.
Rostering Keith Mitchell the last two weeks has been such a tease, the last two weeks have basically been the same. He gets himself into contention to win, and then when he does implodes from there. At least last week he didn't go from almost first to worst of the golfers that made the cut. He is still someone that makes a lot of sense in GPPs.
Doug Ghim also a tease last week, but at least he made the cut. Could have just been an off week for him. He is still a great stat fit this week, and still a solid play at a cheap price tag.
Jake Knapp I would like slightly more if he had Course History, but at the same time he is not a Core Play, and giving him a High Exposure tag might be too much as well. I like him this week because besides not having course history he ranks top 20 or better in all the key metrics, and he is at such a cheap price tag.
Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
Takeaways:
These golfers are all a little bit too risky to fully trust, but they are still good looking plays this week.
Dahmen, and Hubbard are very similar plays at cheap price tags that I have been able to get to a decent amount this week especially in builds that have Scottie. The idea is you play them to get a made cut.
Kitayama has been a little bit hit or miss, and in comparison to someone like Jake Knapp he is just a little bit more risky.
Rai is coming in off of a missed cut last week, if he had simply made the cut and finished top 30 he would be everyone's favorite play and outright bet. I think we could end up getting a lot of leverage here.
Jaeger looks like a great play on paper, but he is still coming in off of a missed cut so I still think that he is a little bit too risky. His missed cuts have not been bad missed cuts however.
Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
Takeaways:
Ben Griffin was playing some poor golf prior to his last event, but maybe he found something in his game and he can get back to the cut maker that we know he had been. He made the cut at this event in 2023 finishing 16th.
Thomas Detry is one of the best wind players in the field, and he showed why last week finishing 17th.
Novak is a play that has shown some great upside, and those recent upside finishes make him worth a look.
Ryder and Novak are basically the same plays expect Ryder has poor course history.
Other Picks I like: Bramlett, Pan, Campos, Stevens, and Bjork
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash: Core+Hubbard
GPP: Rai, Novak
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup
Obviously the build gets more risky with Hubbard, Dahmen, and Knapp but they are all plays that I consider good enough at their prices.
Ownership Leverage
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why.
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point.
Head on over to the Ownership Leverage tab to see this weeks projected ownerships.