Tough to imagine that another season has already came and gone. The Tour Championship from a betting perspective is the cherry on top of the 2023 season. We are playing this week simply because we always play, and want to see the season come to a conclusion.
The issue with this week is the strokes difference that golfers get. This will give an automatic DK point total to each player. It is basically 4 rounds of a round 4 showdown into one. With the nature of this being a small field event, and strokes advantage event I will be going about my week in DFS slightly different in terms off content. It will still flow the same but have a slightly different structure as you will see below.
As the season will come to an end make sure to check out my NFL DFS content as well as be on the look out for updates to come for the 2024 season. Thankfully this season we will get a light fall schedule thus I will be able to (hopefully) hammer home some updates which I am excited to get into.
This Weeks Video:
Key Stats:
- Effective Scoring
- SG OT
- SG ARG
- DD
- BOB
- Par 5
The strangest thing about this week is that we consistently see the golfers that hit it the furthest are the ones that have the best scores. Strokes Gained OT, and Driving Distance are very key this week.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years tournament history.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING:RED
This is too small of a field to really attack it in DFS this week.
Weather:
Weather could play a slight factor on Thursday, but after that it is looking like good weather.
Betting Picks
First Round Leader
AM Tee Times
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 7 for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to)
Outright Bets:
Max Homa (w/ wo strokes)
Xander wo strokes
3 Ball Bets:
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon.
Starting Strokes
Core Plays are the golfers that I am prioritizing the most
Takeaways:
I see this week as a week in which we need to be rostering either Scottie Scheffler or Viktor Hovland in our builds because they are obviously the most likely to win, but also I do not view them giving up that much ground. They are very much starting points to me. My issue with this week is that we have a ton of golfers that are coming in with great form, and this is a week in which we typically see golfers that played well the previous week tend to play well at this tournament. So all of the golfers that are listed below I believe I want to be on besides Fitzpatrick.
Now the issue that we face here is the pricing right? Like we clearly want to fit Hovland/Scheffler into our builds, but at the same time going maybe more of a fair and balanced approach could actually yield success as well. We see player like Brian Harman, Max Homa, Sunjae, and Henley all coming in with great recent form, and all looking like great plays at their prices. They are all plays that I do believe we can rely on this week.
The two players that I will be going out of my way to roster here are Max Homa and Sungjae Im. Both had top 5 finishes at this event, and both have finished top 15 or better in their last 3 starts. They are all all top 10 or better stat fits as well.
Those the golfers that I want to prioritize first, the golfers listed below are golfers that we can use to fit them into our builds
Other Plays I want to call out.
Takeaways:
Now yes, Xander really does not believe in this list, because after Scottie, Hovland, and Homa I would say he is our next best bet, I have just had an issue getting to him this week. (which seems weird as I type this because of his course history)
Sam Burns is a play that I think will be worth the risk. He really is not a great golf play this week, but we just need him to score, and out produce his price tag fantasy score wise. This will allow us to pay up for the studs we want. I think of the cheap plays we have this week he has the most upside.
From there Grillo and Hatton are both solid cheap plays as well. Hatton would be a good play if his form hadn't fallen off in the playoffs. Not sure what is going on there, just seems like his game is slightly off, so it would not be a shock to see him have a bounce back week this week but at the same time I do not want to truly bank on that either.
Grillo is the cheapest play we get that I think will out produce his price tag fantasy score wise.
Player Pool
Player Pool Breakdown:
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this wee
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash/Core: Scottie, Hovland, Homa, Burns, Grillo, Sungjae
GPP: NA
SAMPLE LINEUP:
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive. (Finalized on Tuesday Member Writeup
Two lineups this week. One fitting in my top two plays at all costs, and the second one is a fair and balanced build.
This second build would only have legs in GPPs if Rory, Scottie, and Hovland all "struggle", and if Homa and Xander do finish top 5 this week.
Ownership Leverage
Taking a look at the players that are under-owned, and too high owned. Talking about why. \
*Tool Update Alert* New to 925s Ownership Leverage Tool - Return Value for Finishing Position: Measuring where a golfer needs to finish to return value based on their current ownership projection at their price point. (Comes out Tuesday Evening)
Over Owned / Under Owned:
I don't see ownership playing too big of a factor this week with the reduced field as everyone will have higher ownership.
