The 2026 American Express: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

This week we have the American Express, an event that is a Pro-Am format where golfers will get three rounds in on 3 different courses before the cut. This tends to lead to a lot of variance in regards to who the winner is. For DFS purposes this tends to lead to more of a studs and duds approach as we can increase our floor by targeting values who will score, and that allows us to pay up for studs who are likely to gain their placement points.

Below is my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.

*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

Like last week I actually think we are getting a ton of logical bets and values for dfs lineups. On paper this looks like a pretty good week due to the pricing. The only issue that we have is that typically this is a high variance week.

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

• Birdie or Better % (BoB) Key Stat 3

• Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 1

• Strokes Gained Total (SGTTL Key Stat 3

• Effective Scoring (combination stat - ESCR) Key Stat 4

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

Last 4 years course history.

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

Thankfully weather does not seem like it will be an issue. (We don't have to worry about a course specifically playing easier due to a weather advantage)

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

(Using the showdown page for this is week)

• Niklaus Tournament Course:

  • Ben Griffin 15/1

  • Robert Macintyre 17/1

  • Si Woo Kim 20/1

  • Patrick Cantlay 18/1

  • Rasmus Hojgaard 22/1

  • Pierceson Coody 25/1

• La Quinta Country Club

  • Scottie Scheffler 6.5/1

  • Russell Henley 20/1

  • Sam Burns 18/1

  • Ludvig Aberg 18/1

  • Michael Thorbjornsen 25/1

• Pete Dye Course

  • Harry Hall 18/1

  • Kurt Kitayama 19/1

  • Alex Noren 20/1

  • JT Poston 22/1

  • Rico Hoey 22/1

  • Davis Thompson 25/1

  • Ryan Gerard 22/1

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

• Si Woo Kim Over Davis Riley 1.59/1

• Max Greyserman Over Tony Finau 1.91/1

• Vince Whaley Over Mark Hubbard 1.93/1

• Daniel Berger Over Will Zalatoris 2.08/1

  
  
  
  

Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

• JT Poston over Ryan Gerard -105

• Russell Henley over Sam Burns -115

  
  

More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet 

Outright Bets:

2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

*Note only golfers that have made a start in 2026 will show up as a good outright bet.

Bets:

• Robert Macintyre

• Russell Henley

• Si Woo Kim

• Ben Griffin

• JT Poston

Longshot Bet:

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