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NBA DFS: 1/2/2020


The lineup in this write up, and the information below is subject to change. The lineup posted should be used as a tool to guide your lineup preferences. The lineup posted will most likely be changed before lineup lock and maybe after lineup lock as the news comes in.


The players posted below are the players that are most likely to hit or exceed their price point value.


Confidence in Slate: RED

*Based on the value, chalk, and studs of the slate. Red - Low Confidence, Yellow - Medium Confidence, Green - High Confidence


Slate Strategy: I will be trying to get Luka into my builds tonight, I think there is enough decent 20 + DK Point value plays on the slate that will allow us to do this.


Point Guard:

  • Terry Rozier - $6,800: This is a GPP only play as Rozier has been very inconsistent. But the shot attempts keep being there, which is why his price hasn't really fallen with his poor play lately. Should also note that Rozier went for 50+ DK points against Cleveland just a couple of weeks ago

  • Shabazz Napier - $5,900: This play will get a boast if KAT and/or Wiggins are ruled out, but as we sit right now we only know that Teague is supposed to sit. This allows us to project Napier to get 30 minutes. When he has done that the past month he is averaging 35 + DK points per game.

Other PG Plays: Spencer Dinwiddie, Luka, TJ McConnell, and CP3. Lou Williams is going to be a great play on the slate tonight as well I see him getting 33 + DK points tonight.

Shooting Guard:

  • Dennis Schroder - $6,400: All the guards for the Thunder have been the same pretty much lately, so I will simply be getting my exposure to the cheapest one of them. Schroder is prized where it won't kill you if he only scores 30 DK points as well, and we know he has the upside to easily get 40 DK points like he had for 3 straight games not to long ago.

  • Alec Burks - $6,500: His usage rate has been insane without Russell this year. We saw that again in the past game with DLO out when Burks went for 45 Dk points. I think that Burks is going to make for another excellent play tonight. If he is too popular you can pivot to Lee who(On the same team). They are both very likely to hit and exceed value.

  • Seth Curry - $4,000: With THJ out Curry was able to get 26 minutes. He has had over 20 minutes in 3 straight. In those 3 games he has shot over 10 times in each, and over 10 3 pointers in 2 of those games. I said it on the Mavs last game and I will say it again. If Curry is going to shoot that much all he has to do is get slightly hot and he will make up this price point.

Small Forward:

  • DeMar DeRozan - $7,400: It was nice being able to roster Demar at or below 7K recently, finally he is priced almost correctly, but we can still gain an edge attacking Derozan at this price. He has went for over 40 DK opints in 3 out of his last 4 games. Still this play could be slightly better. DeRozan makes for a great game stacking play.

  • T.J. Warren - $5,600: I love the price of Warren tonight. Warren has been averaging over 30 DK points in games without Brogdon, which is what we get tonight. The only problem with this play is a general lack of upside. He should hit the "Flame" tonight however, I just do not see Warren being a slate breaker. We also might be able to find a similar value play when the news breaks later tonight.

Other SF's I like: Glenn Robinson this would be a game stack, match up based play tonight. Robinson has the ability to get to 30 DK points tonight.


Power Forward:

  • Richaun Holmes - $7,100: The Kings will be without Bagley tonight, this should mean that Holmes are locked in to 30. Thus Holmes should be able to get to 40 DK points. He is averaging over a PPM this year, so at the very least he should hit value. The Kings faced the Grizzlies on the 21st of last year :), and Holmes had 41 DK points.

  • LMA - $7,600: With DeRozan it feels slightly like we are chasing, but with LMA this just seems to be a stubborn pricing of LMA. He consistently keeps out producing this price point, and DK has essentially been forcing us to play LMA. If he is going to be priced in the 7K range I will continue to roster him each night as a majority of the nights he will go for 40 DK points.

Other PF Plays I like: Kevin Love is priced correctly, but he did just go for 50 DK points against Charlotte last month. Like LMA he consistently hits 40 DK points. Same could be said for Domantas Sabonis, who should be a lock to hit 40 DK points with Brodgon out. The last two plays I am going to mention are high upside GPP plays. The first is Christian Wood who if we knew he would get 30 minutes would simply be priced too cheap, and with his price bump he will be low owned tonight. But it would not be surprising to see Wood get 30 or 40 DK points tonight. Wood is averaging 1.2 DK PPM. Now Marquese Chriss is almost max out of value at his current price tonight, but that will make him low owned tonight, and if he does get 30 + minutes again tonight like he did on NYE he will go for 30 + DK points. Chriss is also averaging over a DK PPM.


Centers:

*Will be playing the PF mentioned above in the Center Spot a lot tonight.

  • DeAndre Jordan - $5,300: Another GPP only play with high upside is Jordan tonight. This is a revenge game for what it is worth, but Jordan has been hit or miss over the past month which keeps his price down. He has went for 32, 23, 18, and 50 DK points in his last 4. With the revenge game narrative I will believe that this will be more of a ceiling game for Jordan.

 

Value Plays: There is a ton of decent value on the slate today!

  • Naz Reid: In the past two games without Towns Reid has gotten 18, and 20 minutes resulting in 17, and 24 DK points. The main take away here is the shot attempts 10, and 16 in the past two games with a majority coming for 3. If he can get hot tonight he could go for 30 DK points.

  • Tim Frazier: If Bruce Brown is out tonight the Piston will already be without Kennard which is a situation we saw recently, and we made Frazier a core play value play. He went for 30 DK points that night in 27 minutes. I would make him a priority if Brown sits tonight.

  • Svi Mykhailiuk: Svi has had over 25 minutes in 3 out of the last 4 games. The only game he did not was a game he came off the bench. He is averaging 23 DK points in the last 3 games he started. He is slated to start again tonight which would indicate that he will get over 25 minutes. Thus making him an elite value play to score over 20 DK points.

  • Kyle Anderson: Jae Crowder missed the last game for the Grizzlies which led to Anderson getting 22 minutes. In those 22 minutes he scored 21 DK points. Given how many bigs the Kings run out there it would not surprise me if this is the route the Grizzlies went again tonight. If Anderson gets 20 minutes again he should at the very least score 18 DK points.


Core Plays: Luka, Frazier*, Lou Will, Holmes, and Napier*


If/Then Statements:

If Tim Frazier is starting then I will be finding a way to get him into must of my builds to try and pivot off of the chalky value tonight.

If both Wiggins and Towns are out, Covington, Reid, and Keita Bates-Diop are too cheap.

If Burks is chalk tonight then Lee is a great pivot.

Can't Ignore Production:

Nerlens Noel: Simply getting around 20 minutes and putting over 20 + DK points. Wish he was cheaper.

Zubac: Very consistent lately.


 

Lineup


*This is a sample lineup. Lineup will change before lock. Use this as a tool to assist in your lineup build process.


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