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NBA DFS: 12/26/2019

This is a free sample of the write up that 925 Sports does for each NBA DFS Slate we play during the season. We will typically play 4 times a week on average. Just playing the slates where we can find an edge in pricing. The write up below will be the main plays that we are going after on the slate.


The lineup in this write up, and the information below is subject to change. The lineup posted should be used as a tool to guide your lineup preferences. The lineup posted will most likely be changed before lineup lock and maybe after lineup lock as the news comes in.


The players posted below are the players that are most likely to hit or exceed their price point value.


Confidence in Slate: Yellow

*Based on the value, chalk, and studs of the slate. Red - Low Confidence, Yellow - Medium Confidence, Green - High Confidence


Point Guard:

  • De'Aaron Fox - $7,000: For the third straight slate De'Aaron Fox is one of the stand out PG plays on the slate. The problem with his recent production is that he is almost priced up too much. Still this is a spot tonight that Fox should be able to go for around 38 DK points. Over the past 10 games he has been playing great, at this price point he would have only not hit value once. That was on the front end of a back to back when he only saw 24 minutes. (Some of the games were before his injury as well)

  • Elfrid Payton - $5,300: Not a play that I love today but the match up is fair, and the price point is as well. It has been a guessing game when and which Knicks players will get minutes but recently Payton has had 24 minutes and 29.1 DK PPG in the last 5 games.

Other PG Plays: Ja Morant is in a spot tonight that I think he can go off in. Dennis Schroder is priced down too much for his recent production over the past month. He makes for a great play tonight as well. Schroder went for 44 DK points in the last game against Memphis.

Shooting Guard:

  • Dillion Brooks - $5,000: I will most likely be playing Schroder, or a value option at the SG spot tonight, the one that I like other than those plays is Dillon Brooks. His minutes have been consistent as well as has DK production. He went for 26.5 DK points the last time the Grizzlies played the Thunder. This is a play that won't win you a GPP.

Small Forward:

  • DeMar DeRozan - $6,500: DeRozan had been in such a slump before his last game out, so this is still a risky play, but he does have a lot of upside in this one. The last time the Spurs played the Mavs DeRozan went for 36 points, 8 Rebounds, 1 Steal, and 4 assists. He makes for a high upside GPP play. I think he will go for 40 + tonight, which at his price is great tonight!


Power Forward:

  • Julius Randle - $6,800: In two match ups versus the Nets Randle is averaging 37 minutes, 9.5 Rebounds, 15.5 points, and 4 assists. This isn't great, but we know Randle has the upside to go off on any slate. This is a pure GPP play, or a last in the lineup type play.


Centers:

  • Jonas Valanciunas - $6,100: This seems like a pure pricing error on DK's part tonight. VAL has came on strong over the last 4 games getting 26.3 minutes, and averaging 40.8 DK points. He actually just went for 40 DK points against the Thunder on the 18th. At the very least he will not bust tonight with this price point, and has the upside to really be a strong anchor for your builds tonight. I do like Steven Adams as well tonight as a play. You could use both tonight if you wanted too.

  • Ian Mahinmi - $4,800: The last time the Wizards played DET, they were not this banged up, and Mahinmi still saw 25 minutes, now they will have to play big again tonight which means that 25 minutes should be the floor for Mahinmi (granted that he stay out of foul trouble) Mahinmi should be able to get to 28 DK points tonight.

 

Value Plays: There is a ton of decent value on the slate today!

  • Emmanuel Mudiay: He has played over 20 minutes the last two games without Mike Conley. In games that he gets over 20 minutes he is averaging 23 DK points. The only problem with this value play is that Jordan Clarkson is on the team now, and is expected to play off the bench today.

  • Tim Frazier: Frazier started for the Pistons in their last game with Bruce Brown out, and now Luke Kennard is going to be out for a while. If Bruce Brown is out tonight again I think Frazier will see around 20 minutes like he has the last two games. In those two games he has scored 17.25, and 31 DK points. This is also a great match up for Frazier as well.

  • Svi Mykhailiuk: Staying with the Pistons for value Svi makes for a great play. He also started on Monday and had 32 minutes scoring 23.5 DK points. Not a great PPM play, but as a value play we will take over 20 DK points all day!

  • Darius Bazley: He started the last game for Gallinari and played 25 minutes, scoring 23.5 DK points. He probably won't get to 20 DK points tonight but it will be close to it tonight. I think that he will be more chalky tonight than he should.

  • Jordan McRae: McRae will most likely be my highest owned value play on the slate. He is due back today, and shouldn't have a minutes restriction. With how banged up the Wizards are he should get a ton of minutes. Before his injury he was averaging nearly a DK point per minute. I think he will get around 25 DK points tonight!



Core Plays: VAL, Frazier*, Fox, McRae, and Luka*


If/Then Statements:

If Tim Frazier is starting then I will be finding a way to get him into must of my builds to try and pivot off of the chalky value tonight.

If Luka plays tonight then Porzingis at his price point is way too high.

If Luka starts without a minutes cap I think he can go off against against the Spurs. He had a Triple Double with 42 points in his last game against the Spurs.


Can't Ignore Production:

Richaun Holmes: He has been steady recently averaging 32 DK points in the last 5 games.

D. Lillard: I feel like I will end up on Lillard tonight, as we do not have much value to pay up for.

LMA: He had one game where he busted other than that he has been really consistent for the Spurs. He should be a lock to hit value tonight.

Hassan Whiteside: I don't know what he has to do to be priced correctly Whiteside has been dominating over the past month. If you take out 2 of his bust games he is averaging close to 50 DK points per game. I will try to pay up for him where I can. In the lineup below I was painfully $100 away from Whiteside, and was forced to go with Frazier.


 

Lineup


*This is a sample lineup. Lineup will change before lock. Use this as a tool to assist in your lineup build process.


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