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The Drunk Slate - NBA DFS: 12/31/2019

We get a night tonight in DFS where if you're not going out you could possibly gain a huge edge if some slate breaking news comes in. If you're going out tonight just make sure to check you lineup every so often. We are due to get news its just a matter of when it comes out. (DEN/HOU and DAL/OKC)


The lineup in this write up, and the information below is subject to change. The lineup posted should be used as a tool to guide your lineup preferences. The lineup posted will most likely be changed before lineup lock and maybe after lineup lock as the news comes in.


The players posted below are the players that are most likely to hit or exceed their price point value.


Confidence in Slate: Red

*Based on the value, chalk, and studs of the slate. Red - Low Confidence, Yellow - Medium Confidence, Green - High Confidence


There are so many decent GPP plays, but not enough safe plays on this slate. This is a slate where we will end up with a lot of salary meaning we can pay up for a stud that won't hit value but will still get a lot of points. (Jokic, Luka are examples)


Point Guard:

  • Darius Garland - $4,500: Trying to decide between if I wanted to play Garland or Sexton tonight, I decided to go with Garland due to price, and the possibility of this game blowing out like it did the last time these two teams met. Garland went for over 30 DK points in that one. He has also hit value at this price point in 5 of his last 7 games. Not a great play overall but this is a very small slate.

  • Ky Bowman - $3,100: I love this play simply due to the price point, factor in that DLo is out tonight as well, and Bowman makes for a strong play. He is almost a lock to hit value as I am projecting him to see 20 minutes, he could potentially see even more than that tonight as well. Bowman should be able to get to 20 DK points tonight regardless of the outcome of the game.

Other PG Plays: Murray, CP3, Doncic

Shooting Guard:

  • Damion Lee - $6,200: Even in blowouts Lee has still been getting the minutes which is a huge thing tonight, where raw points are what we are looking for. Lee should be the player with the highest usage tonight with DLo out. Over the past 5 games he is averaging over 30 minutes, and 37.8 DK points. If the games stays close Alec Burks could be a huge upside play at a lower price.

  • Seth Curry - $3,900: With THJ ruled out for tonight's game Curry should get over 25 minutes especially if the game stays close. If Curry gets those minutes, and his shot is even somewhat on he will hit value. We know that if his shot is out he could break the slate.

Small Forward:

  • DeMar DeRozan - $7,100: DeRozan should be able to hit value tonight at this price point at the very least. He has been very spotty recently, but if you were trying to game stack this game he makes a lot of since. I do think he will get to 40 DK points tonight.


Power Forward:

  • Serge Ibaka - $7,300: I love the price point of Ibaka tonight. IF the game stays close he should have no trouble getting to 40 DK points. The last time these two teams faced he had 22 DK points in just 20 minutes.

  • Marquese Chriss - $4,100: I do hate the price here, wish he was a value play tonight, because he do not know if the minutes will be there. If we knew that he was going to get 20 + minutes he would be an easy lock on this slate. Whenever Chriss sees over 10 minutes he is averaging well over a DK PPM, and when he sees over 20 minutes he is averaging over 30 DK points. I will have a lot of Chriss due to his upside.

  • Jerami Grant - $4,600: Grant is going to be a solid play tonight. He will see around 30 minutes, and has shot the ball 9 plus times in the last 3 games. He easily has the upside to go for 30 DK points tonight.

  • Mason Plumlee - $4,400: I actually like Plumlee slightly more than Grant, and Chriss on tonight's slate. He should get around 20 minutes tonight. He has have over 24 DK points the last two nights. (filling in for Millsap)


Centers:

  • Kevin Love - $7,500: Kevin Love is another play that would typically fall in the "If/Then" section of the write up, but with a small slate we will have to get some ownership towards him. Love has been dominating recently going over 40 DK points in 4 straight. The reason he is priced this low is because of the high likelihood that the game could blow out. If it doesn't however it will be because KLove is putting in work.

  • John Henson - $3,500: The search for finding value tonight led me to John Henson. Wow! 4 of his last 7 games have been over 20 DK points. Now this isn't great, but Henson does not need a ton of minutes. But if you think this game will be a blow out then Henson should see around 15 minutes. He had 16 in the blowout with Toronto on the 16th going for 22.3 DK points. PS cannot wait for the future John Henson chalk night, whenever that happens.

  • LMA - $7,600: Aldridge is simply too cheap like he pretty much has been for the past month. Sure he has had a few bad games mixed in there, but tonight should not be one of those. The Warriors will not have anyone to defend him, and LMA should have no trouble tonight. LMA had 22 points, 8 rebounds, and a block in the first match up against the Warriors.

 

Value Plays: There is a ton of decent value on the slate today!

  • Omari Spellman: Spellman will get minutes tonight with Looney, and WCS out. Spellman had been out with an illness the past two games. He isn't a great value play, and won't break the slate but should get around 15 DK points. He is min priced tonight on DK.

  • Trey Lyles: Trying to find value on this slate also led me to Trey Lyles tonight. He is a guy that we know will get the 15 - 25 minutes tonight, and could really break the slate depending on how he is shooting. He started the last time the Spurs faced the Warriors and had 14 rebounds and 3 assists. He missed all 4 of his shot attempts. 3 of those were 3 ball attempts.


Core Plays: LMA, Mason Plumlee, and Seth Curry


If/Then Statements:

If James Harden is out Then Westbrook is a lock, and Clemons is in play.

If Capela is out Then Hartenstein enters the player pool, as well has Gary Clark at lower ownership.

If Dennis Schroder sits Then, CP3, and SGA will need to be owned. The match up may be bad, but they will hit value.

If Gallinari is ruled out and Diallo is going to play Diallo Then makes for one of the best values on the slate.


Can't Ignore Production:

Nerlens Noel: Maybe not the production, but this is a revenge(ish) game. Think he could hit is ceiling of around 30 DK points.


 

Lineup


*This is a sample lineup. Lineup will change before lock. Use this as a tool to assist in your lineup build process.



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