FedEx St. Jude Championship 2025: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
- 925 Sports
- Aug 5
- 7 min read
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Red
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
The biggest issue with this week is that for some of the big name golfers that we know that we will be paying up for could have an off week, and if that is happening they may be less likely to grind out the shots they typically would. We know that for no-cut events we should be doing the studs and duds approach, but the studs are extremely priced up, and most of the "duds" are just not good plays on paper. We have maybe 3 sub 7K plays that I like. This week does seem like a week to go fair and balanced, but that can be extremely risky to pass up on Scottie and his potential top 5 or better finish.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Birdie or Better % (BOB) Key Stat 1
Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 2
Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 3
Strokes Gained Putting (SG P) Key Stat 4
Wedge Scoring (less than 125 (WEDGE) Key Stat 5
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years course history.
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
Again like basically every tournament this year, Wednesday rain should soften up the course it bit, and might make it easier to score on Thursday.
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
Harry Hall 50/1
Xandher 25/1
Scottie Scheffler 11/1
Russell Henley 40/1
Justin Thomas 30/1
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
TBD
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
TBD
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet
Outright Bets:
2024 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
Scottie Scheffler 4/1
Russell Henley 31/1
Tommy Fleetwood 28/1
Harry Hall 66/1
Robert Macintyre 51/1
Hideki 41/1
Matt Fitzpatrick 25/1
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
Scottie Scheffler is the only Core Play on paper that we have this week, and he is priced that way in PGA DFS. I still think he is relatively easy to fit into builds. I will attempts to get to at least 40% of Scottie this week. In terms of winning I am a bit shocked that he is only at 4/1 odds, especially considering his price in DFS, normally he would be closing to 2/1 or so odds.
Data Tag: High Exposure
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