Truist Championship 2026: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool) + ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic
- May 5
- 7 min read
I will be breaking down the Truist Championship as I would any tournament, then for the Myrtle Beach Classic I will have my player pool listed below.
Breaking down my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow / Green
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
I really like the pricing that we are getting for some of the Studs in the fields this week, Xander, Si Woo Kim, and Matt Fitzpatrick are the three that I like the most for a main build, but getting to either Cameron Young and/or Rory is very plausible as well. We are getting plenty of good values as well this week.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Strokes Gained Approach (SG AP) Key Stat 1
Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 2
Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 3
Effective Scoring - Combo Stat (ESCR) Key Stat 4
These key stats are designed to be more general, but also focused in on the comp courses.
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
PGA Championship 2025
Wells Fargo Championship 2024
Wells Fargo Championship 2023
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
Rain could make the course play a little softer and a little bit easier this week, other than that weather is not playing a big factor right now.
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
Alex Smalley 45/1
Si Woo Kim 30/1
Matt Fitzpatrick 22/1
Tommy Fleetwood 28/1
Rory McIlroy 15/1
Adam Scott 33/1
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
No 3-Ball Bets this week.
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
No Matchup Bets this week.
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet
Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
The only problem this week is that there are too many good choice for outright bets. I basically like all of them. As a result I am going to keep my betting card trimmed down.
Bets:
Cameron Young 9.5/1
Xander 14/1
Matt Fitzpatrick 16/1
Si Woo Kim 30/1
Alex Smalley 80/1
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
This is why I really like starting my builds out with Xander and Fitzpatrick, both are coming in with quality form, and both have played this course well in the past. Fitzpatrick finished 8th at this course last year for the PGA Championship and Xander Schauffele had two runner-up finishes in which he was 3 shots better than 3rd, both years... So basically those are both outliers, pretty crazy for him to at least not get a win in one of those years. Both should be safe plays that hold a ton of upside. I really like starting my DFS lineups with both of them.
The only concern that I have from Fitzpatrick is that he is simply too hot, and you can make the easy argument that he is due for a bad week.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Both of these golfers I view more as secondary options, Fleetwood is just too priced up for my to truly love him especially for an event in which we are trying to case upside. Adam Scott I just haven't needed to get to that much, but I view him as one of the better "Shoulder Shrug" plays this week. He should give us a performance that is better or around his price tag.
I am fine with Scott being a High Exposure play, but Fleetwood I view more as a Low Exposure type play.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
I really like most of these golfers in this range, Si Woo Kim and Cameron Young could easily win this week. Harris English has great course history, and Alex Smalley is basically checking all the boxes this week, and is coming in extremely cheap.
The worry with Young is the lack of good course history, over his last 3 years here his best finish has been 34th. He is the 2nd best stat fit, and is in the 3rd best form so I still think it is worth chasing his upside.
Si Woo Kim can have random bad weeks, which is really the only downside for his this week the upside is what he gave us last week, plus we are getting him at a likely discount.
Alex Smalley has good course history finishing 28th, and 18th. He is also the 8th best stat fit in the field, and he has not weak points this week key stat wise. He is also coming in with some strong form finishing 7th, and 3rd in his last two events while making 9 straight cuts on the PGA Tour. He is one of the best values, and one of the easier clicks this week.
Data Tag: Low Exposure
Risk/Reward Plays, Plays to get a made cut, Shoulder Shrug Plays, or Fomo Plays
I will not be covering every golfer in this section but highlighting some.
I think this tier is extremely spot on, Rory, Aberg, Cantlay, Burns, and Rickie all hold winning upside, and are all players that we should be getting some exposure to but their results can all be a bit random which is ultimately why some of the other golfers are projecting out a little better as they are a little bit safer.
I do like the idea of paying down for Denny McCarthy and his extremely good course history. He has finished 8th, 6th, and 8th in his last 3 starts here. He also is typically a golfer that you can trust to give you good results. The play here though is his price.
Sub 7K Plays I Like:
Ryo Hisatsune
Sudarshan Yellamaraju
Michael Kim
Andrew Putnam
Jhonattan Vegas
Player Pool
Player Pool is rank in order of how I am prioritizing a golfer as a play this week. (This is based off of 20 entry max lineups. For 150 entry lineups I will open up the player pool slightly more but this will be determined by the lineup optimizer)
CASH AND GPP PLAYS:
(Finalized on Tuesday Member Write-up)
Cash Play: Highest Likelihood to make the cut.
GPP Play: Reduced Likelihood to make the cut, but if they do they have a high likelihood to exceed their salary.
Cash
Core + High Exposure Plays
GPP
Young, Rory, Aberg, Rickie, Burns, Vegas
Sample Lineup
*This is a sample lineup for you to use as a reference tool. This is typically the first look lineup that I get onto for the week. Most of the time my main lineup will be adjusted throughout the week as I do a deeper dive.
Optimal GPP Lineups (Based on Highest Upside):
From the NineToFiveSports.Com PGA DFS Lineup Builder
Projected Ownership / Ownership Leverage
Projected ownership for that weeks golf tournament, Tag to call out if they are over-valued or under-valued. What position they are being valued at given their ownership at their price.
We are getting some crazy high ownership on a lot of the the top end golfers, and there is a good chances that one of these golfers do not end up working out. As a result of golfers like Rory, and Aberg getting a little bit more love than they should be golfers like Cantlay, Si Woo, and Fitzpatrick end up being great leverage plays.
Myrtle Beach Classic
Player Pool, Sample Build + Outright Bets
Outright Bets:
Brooks Koepka 15/1
Davis Thompson 18/1
John Parry 50/1
Austin Eckroat 45/1
Steven Fisk 45/1
Kevin Yu 28/1
Ben Silverman 250/1
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