RBC Heritage 2026: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
- 6 hours ago
- 7 min read
Kind of an interesting week, where I think that we are getting plenty of appealing values this week that will be able to finish better than their price tag thus allowing us to do studs and duds builds. We also are getting a pretty loaded High Tier this week as well, making it appealing to get at least 3 studs in builds, and in some cases 4.
Lastly I do want to call out that I have made a more straightforward and simple PGA DFS Lineup Builder on the website. It works more like the NFL and NBA lineup optimizers. This can be found using here: https://www.ninetofivesports.com/pgadfslineupbuilder
Below is my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
Overall I like the lineups that I have been able to make this week, but the issue is that we are getting a lot of a like plays at each price tag, making it harder to differentiate between which plays are better.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Strokes Gained Approach (SGAP) Key Stat 1
Effective Birdie to Bogey Ratio (EB2B) Key Stat 2
Par 4 Scoring (Par 4) Key Stat 4
Good Drive % (GD%) Key Stat 3
Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 5
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years course history.
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
Scottie 13/1
Xander 22/1
Si WOo Kim 33/1
Collin Morikawa 33/1
Jake KNapp 40/1
Ryo Hisastune 45/1
Sundarsha Yellamaraju 55/1
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
Sudarshan Yellamaraju beating Max Homa +225
Jacob Bridgeman beating JJ Spaun +215
Xander Schauffele beating Russell Henley +226
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
Nicolai Hojgaard beating Alex Noren +102
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet
Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
Xander Schauffle 15/1
Matt Fitzpatrick 15/1
Cameron Young 17/1
Ludvig Aberg 22/1
Jordan Spieth 28/1
Ryo Hisatsune 65/1
Andrew Putnam (210/1)
Patrick Cantlay 22/1
Russell Henley 22/1
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
I think this is fair that these 3 are all considered Core Plays, there is really no reason not to love them this week either. Xander and Scottie data speaks for itself. Fleetwood finishing 33rd last week is a little bit less appealing, but I a writing that off as more of a tournament in which he let get away from him, thus he was not as mentally focused over the weekend. I do think that he will be prepared to play well this week. These three golfers and both safe, and hold a lot of upside.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Interesting that Patrick Cantlay is the only High Exposure play in the field this week, but I do think he is an extremely appealing play this week, he has finished 13th, 3rd, 3rd, and 2nd at this event. He also is coming in off of 12th, and 7th. This is what makes him extremely appealing. He also ranks out as a top 10 Specialist, the one concern is going to be his stat fit where he ranks 23rd in the field.
Data Tag: Mid Exposure
Players that are still good plays but have more than one flaw to them as a play this week. This could be due to recent form, stat fit, course history, injury uncertainly or just due to the fact that their are better plays around their price tag.
I would mostly agree with all of these golfers being Mid Exposure plays this week, for two reasons. 1) They are the next best options in their pricing tiers. 2) They all of a little bit left to be desired mostly due to random course history where they have top 10 finishes, but also bad finishes. The issue with these events especially after a major is that if a golfer doesn't have their A game they are less likely to grind out shots thus limiting their safety. That is what we are seeing here in the data.
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