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NFL DFS: Full Slate Breakdown - Week 4

Game By Game Breakdown - DFS - Betting

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Vikings vs Saints (London Game)

Bets:

Vikings -3.5


Game Preview:

The Saints are extremely banged up heading into this game. They will be starting Andy Dalton at QB, Alvin Kamara is still a little banged up but will play, and then we have Michael Thomas OUT and Jarvis Landry trying to play through and injury. On the flip side you have Dalvin Cook who is attempting to play through a shoulder injury that he has played through. He might not get his full allotment of snaps and the Saints are not really a team you want to target at the RB position.


After lucking into a win last week, I think the Vikings will be able to win this game. Although is this technically a "primetime Kirk Cousins" game? I mean it's still a 2:30 game there but an 8:30 AM game ET time here. The point I am making is that Cousins sucks in none standard games.


Justin Jefferson will most likely get a lot of Marshon Lattimore in this game which could mean that Adam Thielen and KJ Osborn are the plays you want to target. Even more so possibly Irv Smith Jr.


KJ Osborn has seen more over 70% snaps on average as the Vikes have went towards more 3 WR sets. He could be someone to look at for value.


Top Plays:

Alvin Kamara:

Kamara should be one of if not the top scorer in this game. he has looked very good thus far this year, for some reason the Saints just have not been able to get him the ball. This could very well be a game in which they get that correct against the Vikings who are a bottom 5 D against opposing RBs. Kamara did play in 70% of the snaps last week which suggest who should be good to go in this game for a heavy workload.


Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns

Bets:

Falcons +100


Game Preview:

The Falcons are the Miami Dolphins expect where the plays they need to win the game did not go their way. The Falcons could easily be 3-0, whereas the Dolphins could easily be now 1-3. That is the NFL. The biggest take away here is that the Falcons have been in these game.


The Cleveland Browns have been pretty nice in terms of fantasy production where the players you would want to play have produced. Amari Cooper has been a stud, Kareem Hunt has been good enough, and Nick Chubb has been solid.


It will be fun to see Amari Cooper matched up against AJ Terrell which could actually be what decides the outcome of this game. Terrell was dominated in week 1 but then really shut down DK Metcalf last week.


The weakness of the Falcons D is in the passing game so possibly Nick Chubb struggles to hit value.


Cordarrelle Patterson has been a stud 2 out oof the 3 weeks thus far this season but we do see Tyler Allgeiers snap counts continue to rise, from 0 in week 1 to 31 in week 2, and then 37 in week 37. I would say for now his snaps will be limited to around 35%.


A player that has not been leaving the field is Drake London who has non seen over 80% of the snaps in 2 straight weeks a trend that should continue. Two other players getting a surprising amount of snaps are Parker Hesse averaging 68% on the season and Olamide Zacceaus who saw 67% last week.


Given the matchup it would not be shocking to see Jacoby Brissett hit value, but it is Marcus Mariota as the QB I want to target for value this week.


Top Plays:

Amari Cooper - High Exposure - $6,300:

Cooper gets a strong matchup against the Falcons this week who are a bottom 5 D against opposing WRs. After being open a ton in week 1 but not getting many targets we have seen that be corrected in week 2 and 3 where he saw 10 and 11 targets. Given the matchup I think that Cooper could easily get there again, and at this price point, he is still too cheap.


Marcus Mariota - High Exposure - $5,600:

Has been sharp, and he gets a matchup that is a little bit better than it seems on paper. The Browns have not really faced a great QB yet, and as a result, it would not be shocking to see Mariota hit value in this game.


BILLS VS RAVENS

Bets:

Bills -3


Game Preview:

A matchup with potential playoff implications already, as both teams could find themselves looking for a bye, by the end of the season. This is a result of both QBs playing as MVP candidates thus far, with Lamar having the slight edge.


This is expected to be a high-scoring game, and I think that it will be. You have Lamar Jackson who is simply been electric putting the team on his back. The issue is that the Bills have been an elite D even with a lot of their backups being forced into playing time. It will be interesting to see which side wins.


On the flip side the Ravens have been terrible thus far, they allowed Mac Jones to score over 20 DK points last week, Tua to score over 40, and Joe Flacco even scored 18 DK points in week 1. With Josh Allen averaging over 30 DK points per game he should have no issue getting back there once again. I love the idea of loading up on Allen, Diggs, and even Gabe Davis. You could even go as far as to play Devin Singletary who played in over 70% of the snaps and had 11 targets.


A low-end value I could see in this game is Justice Hill who has been the most explosive RB for the Ravens thus far this season on a very small sample size. Maybe the Ravens playing from behind turn to the min-priced RB in justice Hill.


Josh Allen - $8.400 - Core Play:

I am either going value at QB or paying up for Josh Allen this week as we can basically lock in 30 DK points from Allen this week. The Ravens are giving up an average of 28.1 DK points per game to opposing QBs, and it has been very easy for opposing QBs. I think that Josh Allen should be able to feast.


Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis - High Exposure Plays/Stacks:

Gabe Davis is averaging over 90% of the snaps thus far this season for the Bills when he has been active. Now he has only seen 5 and 6 targets in those two games and is averaging 12.8 DK points. But Gabe Davis is simply playing too much to not think those targets are going to come in this game. I think that Gabe Davis has a chance to break this slate.


On the flip side, Diggs should be able to have a strong game as well. But he is priced that way. Diggs is averaging 11 targets per game, and 30.5 DK points. He should be a safe, and upside play this week.


Commanders vs Cowboys

Bets:

Commanders +140


Game Preview:

This game could be a sneaky game stack game. You just have to get the stack correct. I think that the Commanders will win this one, which means I would want to favor more of the Commanders, but stacking it via the Cowboys is easy.


You go Cooper Rush at QB, with Ceedee Lamb, and Noah Brown, then run it back with Curtis Samuel, and pass catch back JD McKissic. This is a good cheap stack that could hit.


The biggest worry for the Commanders would be the Cowboys pressure getting 12 QB hits on 37 pass atts and 5 sacks. On the flip side Carson Wentz was sacked 9 times and was hit 17 times. This will be the difference maker in the game.


Kendall Fuller allowed 10 tgts, 8 rec, and 148 yards for the Commanders. Meaning that the Cowboys WRs should benefit from that.


Terry Mclaurin and Curtis Samuel:

McLaurin I see more as a stack option in this game, but he has been a little bit more consistent the last two games getting 8 and 9 targets scoring over 10 DK points in each. The problem I have with him is the price point. The WR1 and the #1 weapon in this offense is still Curtis Samuel who is still way too cheap. He has been averaging 11.6 OPR per game. At the WR spot, at this price point in a easier matchup he should be able to hit value once again.


Noah Brown - Ceedee Lamb:

I sort of love both of these plays given their price point. You have Brown at 4.9 on DK which is simply too cheap. He has been getting an average of 84.5 % of the snaps which would rank out top 30 in the league at the WR position on average. He has scored over 10 DK points in 3 straight games, and now gets the easiest matchup of the season. If he gets around 6 targets which he should in this matchup he should be able to hit value. Now Ceedee Lamb is a player I am going out of my way to play this week. He is seeing over 90% of the offensive snaps for the Cowboys. While seeing over 11 targets in three straight weeks. At his price in this matchup while averaging 14.2 DK points I think that he should be able to dominate in this game. I love him as a play this week.


Lions vs Seahawks

Bets:

SEA +3.5


Game Preview:

This game is loaded with value, it is tough not to target this game, and it is tough not to love plays from this game. Everyone is super cheap.


Both QBs are priced at below 6K with Geno Smith getting the 2nd best QB matchup of the slate at 5.4 he is honestly tough to pass up on. I am either playing Josh Allen or going with Geno Smith.

RB wise you have Jamaal Williams in a great matchup against the Seahawks who are a bottom 5 D against RBs. Who is locked into a big workload. You have Rashaad Penny at 4.9 as basically the best value RB play we might get this season. He had over 79% of the RB snaps last week and now gets a the Lions who are the second worst against RBs.


DK Metcalf is properly priced at 6.8K but he is still firmly in play this week. You have Tyler Lockett who might be one of my highest owned players on the slate. Lockett has seen 11 targets the past two weeks scoring 16.6, and 22.7 DK points in those game. The Seahawks get their easiest matchup of the season thus far and they should be able to dominate.


With ARSB ruled OUT in this game that is going to open a lot of passing targets, and although the Seahawks have been good against the pass this season I think that Chark and Josh Reynolds should be able to hit value. Both have been playing around 80% of the snaps, and both should see an increase in targets with ARSB OUT. I see them more as game stacking plays.


The Seahawks weakness is against opposing TEs, which should mean that TJ Hockenson could have a big game. He has seen 7, 7, and 4 targets through 3 games thus far this season. Once again with ARSB OUT he should be getting a couple more targets or see 7 targets once again this week.


Last week Jeff Okudah shut down DK Metcallf, and last week DK Metcalf was held in check by AJ Terrell. AN interesting matchup to watch.


Everyone in this game as stated above:


Chargers Vs Texans

Bets:

NA if Allen OUT I like the Texans.


Game Preview:

The Texans are by far the worst rush D given up almost 150 more rush yards than the next worst D. Austin Ekeler should be in for a much MUCH better week rushing the ball. If the targets continue to be there like they were the last 2 weeks he should be able to go off.


Brandin Cooks is top 10 in targets in the league, but has not been great this year thus far. If those continue he could get to value. I just like this Chargers D, and it is tough for me to play him.


Justin Herbert should get his go to WR back this week in Keenan Allen, and at Keenan's current price point he seems like a great value-based play. Hebert was only one yard away from the 300-yard bonus. I think he gets that this week. Also they did not credit Josh Palmer with a TD that he had at the end of the game. The Texans D was able to play well against the terrible Bears pass offense.


Another great value-based play in Dameon Pierce who continues to look better each week.


With the Chargers being banged up a little I could see using Texans D.


Austin Ekeler - High Exposure - $7,700:

This is not a play that is going to give you the warm and fuzy's as Austin Ekeler is only averaging 2.5 ypc. Now JAX is apparently just good at stopping the run so maybe we writeup off the fact that he only had 4 rushing attempts. Plus the Chargers were down for a lot of this game. Ekeler should have a great game in this one.


Dameon Pierce - Mid Exposure - $5,600:

James Robinson just went for 100 rushing yards against this offense last week. With Pierce getting 20 rushing attempts last week I think they are trying to get him the ball more if this continues he could easily hit value.


Keenan Allen - High Exposure - $6,500:

The Chargers have been cautious with Keena thus far so if he plays he should be in for his normal workload. Now if he sits you just fire up Josh Palmer again. The good thing is that this is a noon game so we will know prior to lineup lock. Keenan had 10.6 Dk points in week 1 in less than a half of football. While he was out Josh Palmer averaged 14.5 DK points while Keenan was OUT.


Titans vs Colts

Bets:

This game feels like a toss up.


Game Preview:

This game will come down to which ever team can establish the run first. I think that both JT, and Henry could have huge games in this one. The Titans got Henry involved in the passing game last week which needs to continue again this week for them. JT struggled in week 2 against the Jags who just might be a good run D, and then in week 3 was fine, just not elite production, especially without a TD.


The Titans gave up 5.1 YPC last week, and allowed Josh Jacobs to score over 12 DK points last week. This should be a matchup that Taylor goes off in.


The Titans D is also a D that allowed me to look like a genius for suggesting Mack Hollins as a value play. He scored 30 DK points. It would not be shocking to see Michael Pittman go off and have a good game.


Jonathan Taylor - $8,800 - High Exposure:

I think that JT will have a huge game is this game, and he is someone that I want to call out. You could say that he is due for a TD as well. The Tians are a bottom 5 D, and we saw what JT did against another bad D earlier this year in the Houston Texans. I think that he goes off in this one.

Giants vs Bears

Bets:

This game is going to be ugly. The Bears have won two ugly games already so I guess I would just pick them to win. Plus they are slightly more healthy.


Game Preview:

David Montgomery is out which means that Khalil Hebert will be the RB1, and preseason stud Trestan Ebner will be the RB2. The Bears quietly have one of the best backfields in the league that goes three deep with playmakers. I think that whoever is the starter for this team will hold value. As of right now that is Herbert.


With Sterling Shepard OUT, Toney, and Robinson most likely sitting, and Kenny Golladay not doing much we might be forced to look at the Giants for some value. David Sills will most likely play over 65% of the snaps in this on as a result, and he could be someone you look at. The WR I like the most would be Richie James who has played 70%, 42% and 74% of the snaps thus far for the Giants. His low snap week came as a result of trying to get Toney more snaps.


With the Giants being so banged up and Daniel Jones just being a bad QB I think the Bears D who has been impressive is firmly in play at 2.7 this week on DK.


Khalil Hebert - $5,700 - Core Play:

The Giants are not a matchup that you're worried about this week they are a below-average D against the run, and at this price Hebert should be able to hit value. He had 22 OPR last week, and should see between 16 - 22 again this week. We do not expect him to dominate on the ground again this week but getting around 15 DK points in certainly within the realm of possibilities.


Daniel Bellinger - $2,800 - Mid Exposure:

This is a week in which I have found myself needing to pay down at TE, and I have ended up on Bellinger who has now played in an average of 55% of the snaps at TE for the Giants. With how banged up they are at WR they might be forced into getting Bellinger some more work. He is a TE value play that I like enough to hit value, and nothing more.


Jax vs Phi

Bets:

Jaguars +6.5


Game Preview:

I do think that Philly will win this game but I do think that the Jags can cover. This is also game that I think you could stack as well. The issue is that both D's have been surprisingly good this season.


One thing to monitor this week is that Zay Jones is currently Questionable, if he were to sit that would make Christian Kirk, and Marvin Jones even better plays. In week one Lawrence struggled with his accuracy,, and Marvin Jones could have easily have had a much better game than he did. If we see him get an increase in targets he would be an elite value at this price point.


At 3.4 on this slate Evan Engram is a good value play as well. He only had 3 targets last week but is averaging 72.4 % of the Jags snaps. A high enough amount for this price point..


Hurts, Brown, and Smith:

I like the idea of running out this stack in this game. Now the Jags were good on D so that could hinder some production but with Smith still being relatively cheap this is a stack you could do. Hurts has been a stud thus far this season scoring over 20 DK points every week, and is averaging 30.8 DK points on the season. His rushing creates a nice floor. He is someone I like for a game stack but I like Josh Allen a lot more as a one of play than I do Hurts. Brown is averaging over 10 targets per game, which has allowed him to get over 10 DK points per game. DeVonta Smith was a play that some 925ers took advantage of last week with his soft price point. He went off scoring 33.9 DK points. The Commanders were an easy matchup which made that play easier to make. This week the Jags are alright, so he is not as sexy of a play but he should still be solid. He has had 7 and 12 targets the past two weeks I think we see something around there again for Smith.


Christian Kirk - High Exposure - $6,600:

Kirk is playing in over 90% of the snaps for the Jags, while averaging 9 targets per game, and scoring over 19 DK points in every game thus far. Kirk role is one that is cemented in, and at this price point that makes him too cheap.


Jets vs Steelers

Bets:

NA


Game Preview:

Strangely one of the games I am most excited about mostly because I want to see what this offense can look like with Zach Wilson. With Joe Flacco is was one that was certainly intriguing. On the flip side it seems like Mitchell Trubisky's days as the QB 1 for the Steelers is limited, a couple more bad games and you would think that he will sit.


The probably with the Jets this week is at RB where both Breece Hall and Michael Carter have been involved offensively when they are on the field, and both players have been playing 50% of the snaps.


For the Steelers Najee Harris is a little bit priced up for my comfort level.


Dionte Johnson - $6,000 - High Exposure:

I don't get why DraftKings hates Diontae Johnson, again too cheap, again getting over 10 targets per game and scoring over 10 DK points. The Jets D is solid but it is not one that you are scared of. Dionte Johnson at this price point is firmly in play this week. I just don't get the pricing.


Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore:

Wilson continued to look good last week, all while getting 11, 14, and 8 targets while only playing 57%. This number seems like it will continue to climb and climb. The point is when he is one the field he is getting targets. He is simply too cheap for someone getting that many targets.


Elijah Moore is also someone that is simply too cheap for a WR that is playing 90.1% of the snaps. While being open A TON! For some reason Joe Flacco has just not seen him or thrown him the ball. With Zach Wilson now in one can hope that him simply sees Moore a little bit more. If this occurs he should be able to go off.


Tyler Conklin - High Exposure - $3,600:

Conklin is still way too cheap, I mean we get a TE who is seeing 90% of the snaps, while averaging 8 targets per game, and 12.7 DK point at 3.6K in a pretty good matchup. He is just someone we need to be looking at again this week.


Logan Thomas - Mid Exposure - $3,500:

Thomas has not really looked good thus far this season yet he has been productive with volume. He also saw his snaps increase from week 1 from 62 to 73% of the snaps which should be the norm for him this season. He has scored 7.5, and 12.7 DK points that could easily happen again this week.



Panthers vs Cards

Bets:

Cards -1


Game Preview:

Baker Mayfield has just been terrible, and with the possibility of not having CMC I could see the Panthers getting blown out.


Last week Marquise Brown finally had that blow-up game I said would be happening shortly. He had 14 REC on 17 targets for 140 yards. Scoring 31 DK points. He has seen 11, and 6 targets in the other two games scoring over 10 DK points in both. He could be a solid play.


Greg Dortch is finally at a price point where you have to think about it, but you could argue he is still cheap. He averages 15.3 DK points and at his price point of $5,000 all he has to do is hit is average to hit value. AJ Green has been ruled out in this one which should only help Dortch get on the field.


DJ Moore has not been frustrating, it has been watching Baker Mayfield consistently miss him while he has been wide open which has been frustrating. The good news is that he is getting open. The bad news is that Baker sucks and can't get him the ball. He is playing in over 90% of the WR snaps and should be a solid play. At 5.3 he is defiantly too cheap for his ability to get open. With CMC OUT I could see Moore getting a heavily target share this week.


Patriots vs Packers

Bets:

NA


Game Preview:

With Mac Jones OUT I do not think this offense changes that much, plus the Pats should get back Jakobi Meyers in this game. So the Pats will be competitive in this game, and they could cover, but I think as the game develops the Packers will be able to win, and win easily. But with both teams going for long sustained drives maybe this game is a tough one to bet on.


R. Stevenson - Mid Exposure:

Stevenson is priced out 5.2 and has played in over 60% of the snaps for the Pats the last two weeks. Now I think that Harris is the better player as a whole but it seems the Pats want to keep him fresh and use Stevenson as more of "bruiser" The Pats will need him to have a good game in order to stay in this game. He could get around 5 DK points in the passing game as well.


Jakobi Meyers + Romeo Doubs:

Both defenses are very solid, but both these WRs are simply too cheap. Now Christian Watson is expected to be active and play this week which could hinder Doubs this week. Last week with Watson OUT Doubs saw 89% of the snaps while getting 8 targets and scoring 21.3 DK points. Doubs is far from a lock because of Watson and the explosiveness he brings to the offense, but it would not be shocking to see him have a good game.


Jakobi smash spot week did not happen last week with him being ruled out, but it does seem like he is going to play in this one. If he does he is a pretty cheap safe play. I think he will be able to get to 10 Dk points.


Broncos vs Raiders

Bets:

Broncos +120


Game Preview:

One thing to monitor in this game is that Melvin Gordon is questionable, he is expected to play but if he were to sit Jevonte Williams would be a lock play on this slate. THe Broncos get the second easiest RB matchup on the slate, and Williams should be able to smash in that specific spot.


Both teams have been pretty good against opposing WRs but both teams have struggled against the TE.




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