The 2026 Waste Management Phoenix Open: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)
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- 18 hours ago
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Scottie or the field, that is the question this week not only for PGA DFS purposes but tor outright bets as well. This is the first time in years in which Scottie Scheffler isn't an automatic click in PGA DFS lineups due to the amount of studs that we have on this slate, and also due to the lack of great value. Overall I do see this being a (hopefully) predictable week due to the amount of quality plays that we are getting.
Lastly I do want to call out that I have made a more straightforward and simple PGA DFS Lineup Builder on the website. It works more like the NFL and NBA lineup optimizers. This can be found using here: https://www.ninetofivesports.com/pgadfslineupbuilder
Below is my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.
*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.
SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow
Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.
We are getting a lot of quality plays, especially in the mid-tier, this should lead to this week being a more predictable week. On top of that the weather is nice, and we have plenty of golfers that have played at least 1 start thus far this season.
KEY STATS:
*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.
Ball Striking (BS) Key Stat 1
Effective Birdie To Bogey Ratio (Bogey Avoidance and Birdie to Bogey Ratio (EB2B) Key Stat 2
Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 3
Strokes Gained Around the Green (SG ARG) Key Stat 4
Good Drive % (GD%) Key Stat 5
Course History:
Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)
Last 4 years course history.
Weather:
Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather
Once again we are getting great weather!!!
BETTING PICKS:
First Round Leader
I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.
Si Woo Kim 41/1
Cameron Young 35/1
Ben Griffin 42/1
Sam Burns 42/1
Maverick McNealy 43/1
Chris Gotterup 44/1
Harry Hall 60/1
Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets
Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets
McNealy, Thorbjornsesn, Stevens, Rodgers, Knapp
Matchup Tournament Bets:
Best matchup bet for the week.
More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.
NA this week
More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet
Outright Bets:
2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)
Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.
*Note only golfers that have made a start in 2026 will show up as a good outright bet.
Bets:
Si Woo Kim
Cameron Young
Jordan Spieth
Maverick McNealy
Longshot Bet;
Matt McCarty 72/1
Data Tag: Core Plays
Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"
We have 4 players that are listed as Core Plays, and I have 0 issues with any of them. All 4 golfers have 0 missed cuts at this event, all 4 have made at least 1 start this season, all 4 are great stat fits that are in great form. In simple thee plays are both safe and hold upside.
The one addition I would make to this list is Si Woo Kim.
Data Tag: High Exposure
Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)
Again I view Si Woo Kim as more of a Core Play, not really sure what the data is knocking him for here.
The one concern that we have with Xander is that he did not make a birdie on 18 last week, thus resulting in him not making the cut. This is a course where he has played well at in the past, so I think he will be able to bounce back and play well, the issue I have with him is that I like Si Woo, Scottie, Hideki and Ben Griffin more than him, thus I would rather get to those plays first.
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