The 2026 Farmers Insurance Open: Outright Bets, Core Plays, Bets, Lineup Process, Value Plays, and Player Pool)

This week we have the Farmers Insurance Open. This event is played on two different courses for the first two rounds, Torrey Pines South, and Torrey Pines North. The North course is the much easier of the two courses, so for showdown purposes you want to directly target that course. Torrey Pines South will get the final two rounds.

Overall I do think we are getting some soft pricing on golfers that will make DFS lineups easier, and betting cards more simple. I do like the idea of targeting golfers who have at least made 1 start this season, and bonus points if they have played two.

Lastly I do want to call out that I have made a more straightforward and simple PGA DFS Lineup Builder on the website. It works more like the NFL and NBA lineup optimizers. This can be found using here: https://www.ninetofivesports.com/pgadfslineupbuilder

Below is my step-by-step process to give you the top picks, plays and bets for this weeks tournament.

*Please note I always publish the rough draft version of this write-up, and then come back and edit it / correct it later that day. If there are grammatical errors that is why.

SLATE CONFIDENCE RATING: Yellow

Slate confidence rating is a way of looking at the slate in terms of predictability. Red will be a week in which I am reducing my units bet. Typically this will mean entering the same amount of lineups but in a contest where the entry $ amount is less. A Yellow week is a standard week. Green is a week that appears to be very easy to predict, these are weeks in which we typically have a full field event that is loaded. (Majors) thus it should be very easy to make a good profitable lineup. **Note for betting my strategy does not change per week.

The only issue I have this week is that the amount of solid golf plays are much smaller than the last two weeks, meaning way less room for error. Still I think with some of the poor pricing that we are getting that this still should be a pretty good week.

KEY STATS:

*Based off of which key stats led to golfers winning but also making the cut in previous years at the course tournament. I look for which one or two Strokes Gained stats matter the most. Look to see whether this is a wedge fest or a long iron event. (175-125 stats don't really matter in terms of predicting who will play well in a given week) Find out which scoring stat matters the most (BOB, B2B, or BA). Find if this is a course in which accuracy or distance matters the most.

• Par 5 Scoring (Par5) Key Stat 1

• Effective Birdie To Bogey Ratio (Bogey Avoidance and Birdie to Bogey Ratio (EB2B) Key Stat 2

• Total Driving (TD) Key Stat 3

• Strokes Gained Around the Green (SG ARG) Key Stat 4

• Strokes Gained Putting (SGP) Key Stat 5

Course History:

Going forward Course History for an event with go by H1, H2, H3, and H4. For most weeks that will simply be 2023, 2022, 2021, and 2020 course history. (Last 4 years is course history is when the data is the most significant)

Last 4 years course history.

Weather:

Per PGA Tour website - tournament page - Course Stats - Weather

Great weather once again.

BETTING PICKS:

First Round Leader

I will be targeting AM Tee Times that rank out top 5% for FRL betting using the NineToFive betting sheet until further notice (basically if weather tells us not to). Note you can always bet on golfers to finish Top 5 or Top, just make there they are paying out a tie.

• North Course (if we get the market)

  • Hideki, McNealy, Day, Gotterup, Higgo, and Knapp

Round 1 - 3-Ball Bets

Available by clicking on either the Ownership Leverage, or Props page on NineToFive, then click on the 3 person Icon. I will typically only bet on golfers that have a 40% likelihood to win or type their group. Those will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Click on 3 Ball Bets

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Matchup Tournament Bets:

Best matchup bet for the week.

More will be highlighted in the PGA Tour Betting Sheet - Betting Page Dropdown - Matchup Bets You can also find the best matchup bets per round here as well.

• NA this week

  
  

More Bets found: Ninetofive Betting Sheet 

Outright Bets:

2023 Recap = 12 Outright Winners = 144 Units of Profit (Wyndham Clark winning at +100/1 Odds at Pebble carried)

Picture 1 = Golfers that are the statistical best Outright Bets. This is determined by looking at which data points were the most predictable in regards to players that won the past two seasons. These golfers meet at least 80% or more of the statistical thresholds used to determine winners.

*Note only golfers that have made a start in 2026 will show up as a good outright bet.

Bets:

• Hideki 28/1

• Ryan Gerard 33/1

• Si Woo Kim 27/1

• Sam Stevens 42/1

• Patrick Rodgers 55/1

• Garrick Higgo 54/1

Data Tag: Core Plays

Golfers that are the most likely to make the cut, and meet or out produce their price tag. To be a Core Play golfers need to be coming in "Checking All the Boxes"

I agree with both Hideki and Xander being treated as Core Plays, even with this being Xander's first start I still think he will be good to go for this week. He is clearly the best player in the field and his pricing is pretty cheap relatively speaking.

Hideki is a really safe play, making the cut in his last 12 starts on tour include a top 20 finish at the Sony, and making 4 straight cuts at this tournament.

They both should hold both safety and upside.

Data Tag: High Exposure

Players that have one knock: whether that be course history, recent form, stat fit, safety, upside or price. (*This is based off of the the NineToFive Data Tag, which accurately marks a slight flaw in a great play thus why they would only be high exposure plays)

The three play I like getting to the most in this range are Chris Gotterup, Patrick Cantlay, and Cameron young. Gotterup continued the great golf that he was playing in the fall swing with a win at the Sony Open. He is a pretty ideal fit for this tournament actually, and if he didn't win at the Sony I would consider him a great outright bet. Still for DFS I think we can get to him.

I do worry about the ability for Cantlay, and Young to win this week, but they are both solid options and both should be safe for DFS purposes.

In regards to Aberg, and Spaun I don't hate them I just view them as the worst of these great options I view them more as Low Exposure type plays.

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